Global efforts to phase out coal falling behind, new study warns

New research has raised concerns over sluggish global efforts to phase out coal, the largest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the power sector. This comes amid the push to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels by 2030.

Other concerns include failure to halt deforestation, rising public finance for fossil fuels despite global pledges to phase out subsidies, and an increase in the carbon intensity of global steel production.

This is according to the State of Climate Action 2025 report released this week by the World Resources Institute (WRI).

The research provides a global report card on progress towards limiting warming to 1.5°C across key sectors, as well as a comprehensive roadmap for closing the gap in climate action. The concerns come as this year marks the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, a watershed moment in climate action when more than 190 countries agreed to pursue efforts to combat climate change. The Conference of the Parties (COP) will begin next week, from November 10 to 21, in Belém, Brazil.

According to the research, as a share of global electricity generation, coal fell only slightly from 37 per cent in 2019 to 34 per cent in 2024 and remains “well off track” for the fourth consecutive report.

“Keeping the Paris Agreement limit within reach will require the share of coal-fired power to decline more than ten times faster, reaching just four per cent by 2030,” said Joel Jaeger, senior research associate for WRI’s Systems Change Lab and Climate Program.

He added: “This is roughly equivalent to retiring nearly 360 average-sized coal-fired power plants each year through the end of this decade, as well as halting all planning for and development of new coal capacity currently in the pipeline.”

Continued delays, the report warned, risk stymying mitigation efforts across buildings, industry, and transport, all of which rely on electrification and a decarbonised power grid to reduce GHG emissions.

Plans by Kenya to construct its first-ever coal-powered plant near the coastal town of Lamu, a UNESCO World Heritage site, were recently thwarted after the Environment and Land Court in Malindi upheld a 2019 decision by the National Environment Tribunal (NET) cancelling the environmental licence for the proposed plant.

Legal requirements

Dismissing an appeal filed by Amu Power Company Ltd, Justice Francis Njoroge affirmed that the environmental impact assessment (EIA) process for the planned 1,050-megawatt project did not meet legal requirements.

On deforestation, the report noted that the world’s forests hold roughly 870 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC)—nearly twice the amount emitted from fossil fuels since 1850. “At least a third of these carbon stocks (around 280 GtC) are vulnerable to human disturbances, meaning they would be immediately released if forests are converted to pasturelands or croplands,” said Sophie Boehm, a co-author of the research.

She added: “Once lost, much of this carbon would be difficult for forests to recover in time to help reach net zero by mid-century.”

Despite the outsized role protecting these ecosystems could play in avoiding future GHG emissions, efforts to effectively halt deforestation remain well off track for the third consecutive State of Climate Action report.

Although permanent forest loss fell from a record high of 10.7 million hectares per year in 2017 to 7.8 million hectares per year in 2021, it has since ticked upward to 8.1 million hectares per year in 2024.

“This is roughly equivalent to losing nearly 22 football (soccer) fields of forests per minute, permanently. This recent spike has dampened the longer-term downward trend observed since 2015, such that getting on track for 2030 will now require the rate of permanent forest loss to decline nine times faster,” said Boehm.

On rising public finance for fossil fuels, the report said troubling increases have been seen in support for oil, gas, and coal, precisely when such investments need to be declining steeply.

“Since 2014, governments’ financial support for fossil fuels—such as production and consumption subsidies and funding from domestic and international development finance institutions—has increased by an average of roughly Sh9.6 trillion (US$75 billion) per year,” said Dr Neil Grant, senior climate and energy analyst at Climate Analytics.

He added: “While these investments fell from an all-time high of Sh 271.22 trillion (US$2.1 trillion) in 2022 to Sh193.7 trillion (US$1.5 trillion) in 2023, much of this one-year drop can be attributed to falling international oil and gas prices, which reduced public funds subsidising fossil fuel consumption, such as petrol.”

Critically, these subsidies are the largest form of government support for fossil fuels and fluctuate with oil and gas prices. “This recent decline represents limited progress at best. A step-change is needed to phase out public financial support for fossil fuels by 2030,” he said.

Progress on decarbonising emissions-intensive steel and cement production is mixed. Both require high temperatures during production, resulting in substantial “process emissions” (GHGs emitted from chemical reactions), making them difficult to decarbonise with current approaches, such as electrification.

Existing solutions

“Since 2018, the carbon intensity of global steel production has increased. This is particularly worrying, given that steel alone accounts for over seven per cent of global CO2 emissions,” said Clea Schumer, research associate with WRI’s Climate Program.

She added: “Solutions exist, such as reusing more scrap steel, swapping coal and fossil gas for green hydrogen, and shifting to electric furnaces, but they are not yet widely available. Green hydrogen remains nascent and expensive, while recycled steel supply is limited. Cement decarbonisation is slightly more promising.”

The State of Climate Action 2023 found progress stagnated and needed to occur 10 times faster for 2030. CO2 emissions per tonne of cement have since declined due to efficiency gains, low-carbon fuels, and clinker substitution.

Getting on track for 2030 now requires a fourfold acceleration. Encouragingly, the past five years have seen a surge in projects focused on decarbonising cement, signalling growing global attention.

On the positive side, private climate finance rose from roughly Sh112 trillion (US$870 billion) in 2022 to a record Sh167.8 trillion (US$1.3 trillion) in 2023, though this remains short of the Sh400 trillion (US$3.1 trillion) needed by 2030. Early estimates for 2024 suggest continued momentum, driven by individual consumers, businesses, and institutional investors, particularly in China and Western Europe.

Electric vehicle adoption continues surging, reaching 22 per cent of global car sales in 2024, up from 4.4 per cent in 2020. Green hydrogen, carbon removal technologies, and electric trucks also grew rapidly, with hydrogen production quadrupling and electric truck sales up 67 per cent in one year.

Solar and wind generation hit new milestones, producing 2,100 terawatt-hours annually—eight times 2015 levels. In 2024 alone, new solar capacity could power all of France. Yet current growth, roughly 13 per cent per year since 2020, must more than double to 29 per cent annually to meet 2030 targets.