Kenya has little time to prepare as El Nino rains loom nationwide

Kenyans have only few weeks to prepare for the anticipated El Niño rains,  with the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority warning that about 20 counties could begin receiving enhanced rainfall as early as September.

The climate outlook indicates that  rainfall will begin as early as September in parts of western Kenya and the Rift Valley while most other regions are expected to receive the onset of the October-December short rains between the second and fourth weeks of October.

The rains are expected to continue into January in large parts of the country, raising the prospect of an extended wet period that could put pressure on infrastructure, agriculture, health services, transport and other critical sectors.

The forecast shows above-average rainfall in a large part of the country, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru, Nyeri, Meru, Embu, Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Isiolo, Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Kisumu, Kakamega, Bungoma, Kericho, Kisii and Narok.

Much of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit is also expected to receive above-average rainfall, while Turkana and parts of the three counties are likely to experience near-average rainfall with a tendency towards above-average amounts.

According to the outlook, the October-November-December season is particularly important for the arid and semi-arid counties, including Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Isiolo, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Makueni, Kitui, Taita-Taveta and Machakos, where the season contributes more than 40 per cent of annual rainfall.

Some areas can receive more than 700mm during the season.

“The government has been putting in strategies to prepare well. There are several actions that are taking place that we want to avert the issue of waiting for the rain to come, then now we quantify the losses on it, Environment Ps Ng’enoh .

The forecast comes as the 2026 El Niño event continues to strengthen across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, with meteorologists saying conditions are evolving towards a very strong event.

This year’s rains are expected to be fairly to well distributed in both time and space over several parts of the country, although distribution in Turkana and Samburu is expected to be poor to fair.

The western region will be among the first to experience the rains, with counties including Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok expected to experience rainfall from September.

The rains in these areas are expected to continue into January.

In Nairobi and neighbouring central counties, including Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu and Tharaka-Nithi, onset is expected during the second to third week of October, with rains also continuing into January.

Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita-Taveta and inland parts of Tana River are expected to receive the rains between the third and fourth week of October, also extending into January.

The Coast is expected to have a shorter rainfall window, with Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi and the Tana Delta expected to receive the rains between the second and third week of October before they cease in the first or second week of December.

In the northeastern counties of Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, the rains are expected to begin between the second and third week of October and continue until the first or second week of December.

Turkana and Samburu are expected to receive the rains between the third and fourth week of October, with cessation expected in the first week of December.

The outlook also points to a low probability of drought across most parts of the country during the season.

However, Turkana has a 15 to 20 per cent chance of experiencing a mild drought.

Temperatures, meanwhile, are expected to remain warmer than average during the season, particularly in Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and parts of Tana River, Taita-Taveta and Garissa.

“This outlook should be used together with the 24-hour, 5-day, 7day, monthly, special forecasts and regular updates and advisories issued by this Authority as well as weekly and monthly county forecasts developed and availed by County Meteorological Offices,” said Charles Mugah Acting Director General, Kenya Meteorological Service Authority.

While adequate rainfall could improve water availability, boost agricultural production, replenish pasture and support livestock, excessive rainfall could increase the risk of flooding, infrastructure damage, waterborne diseases and disruption of transport and other services.

The education sector faces a particularly delicate situation as the rains are expected to coincide with the national examination period.

However, the ministry of education stated that national examinations cannot be postponed or delayed.

To minimise disruptions, the Ministry of Education plans to map examination centres in advance and relocate candidates where necessary.

Where roads become impassable, authorities will resort to air transport and drones to deliver examination materials.

The ministry also warned that boarding schools could face food shortages if heavy rains disrupt supply routes, advising institutions in vulnerable areas to stock adequate food supplies.

Schools affected by flooding may also have to adjust learning schedules, including allowing pupils to report earlier and leave before afternoon rains intensify.

It’s anticipated that the rains could also damage school infrastructure, while the traditional use of schools as evacuation centres could further disrupt learning and expose classrooms and equipment to damage.

But the ministry warned counties against using schools as rescue shelters to avoid disruption of learning.

The health sector, meanwhile, is preparing for a possible rise in waterborne and vector-borne diseases, including cholera, malaria, chikungunya and dengue fever.

Health officials said flooding could trigger injuries, trauma and deaths, while displacement and overcrowding could create conditions favourable for the spread of communicable diseases.

Flooding could also compromise water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, including toilets and pit latrines, increasing the risk of disease outbreaks.

The Ministry of Health plans to strengthen disease surveillance, reposition medical supplies and equipment, maintain buffer stocks and deploy mobile clinics and medical camps in areas where health facilities become inaccessible.

The rains could also worsen food insecurity and malnutrition among vulnerable populations, prompting plans for food supplementation, screening and treatment, as well as additional nutrition support.

Mental health and psychosocial support will also be required for communities that lose homes, livelihoods or loved ones during floods and landslides.

The Disaster Risk Management sector has warned of possible loss of lives through drowning and travel accidents, particularly as people attempt to cross flooded rivers, roads and other moving bodies of water.

Among the roads that could be cut off include Nairobi–Garissa–Wajir–Mandera Highway, Garissa–Tana River–Lamu Road, Isiolo–Wajir Road, Kericho–Kisumu Road, Nairobi–Narok Road and Garissa–Habaswein–Wajir Road.

To avert disasters, authorities including the National disaster operations center, are planning community sensitisation, early-warning advisories and the repositioning of rescue teams and equipment in high-risk areas.

Families could also be displaced by floods and landslides, while lightning strikes could cause deaths and damage property and livestock.

The transport and infrastructure sector is equally concerned about roads, bridges and railway lines being cut off or damaged, potentially disrupting the movement of people, goods and emergency teams.

Urban flooding is expected to become an immediate concern in cities including Nairobi, Kisumu and Mombasa, with officials warning that some areas could experience flooding within the first few days of intense rainfall.

Flood plains could be affected within the first week, while communities living near lakes such as Naivasha and Baringo could experience rising water levels later as water flows from catchment areas and groundwater gradually recharges the lakes.

Despite the risks, officials said the rains could deliver significant benefits, particularly in water-stressed and pastoral areas, enhance pasture regeneration, improve livestock performance and recharge groundwater hence reduced resource-based conflicts.

The authority urged stakeholders to use the seasonal outlook alongside 24-hour, five-day and seven-day forecasts, monthly forecasts, special advisories and county-specific forecasts.