Turkana Pastoralists caught between drought, flood shocks

For 75-year-old Esinyen Erebon, rain is no longer simply a blessing.

After months of watching livestock weaken as pasture disappears and water sources recede, he is praying for rain. Yet he knows that too much rain, arriving too quickly, could bring another danger to the same animals he is trying to save.

“My worry is if the rain fails, animals will die. But I am very hopeful that the anticipated rains will save my animals from the drought calamity,” Erebon said.

His dilemma captures the increasingly difficult reality facing pastoralists across Turkana: rain is both a lifeline and a threat.

Pastoral families need sufficient rainfall to regenerate pasture, recharge water sources and restore livestock body condition.

But after prolonged dry conditions, intense rainfall can generate flash floods, sweep away weakened animals, destroy grazing areas and displace families living near seasonal rivers and other low-lying areas.

For communities whose livelihoods depend almost entirely on livestock mobility, preparing for both extremes at once is becoming unavoidable.

Turkana is currently among Kenya’s counties experiencing the most severe drought.

The Kenya Red Cross Society has classified Turkana among counties in the country facing a critical phase of drought. It says water sources have dried up, food insecurity is escalating and vulnerable groups, particularly mothers and children, are bearing a heavy burden. Families in drought-affected ASAL areas are walking an average of 6.9 kilometres a day to find water.

Rukia Abubakar, the Kenya Red Cross coordinator in Turkana, said the drought had already forced livestock and pastoralists to move in search of pasture and water.

“Currently the county is facing severe drought that has pushed livestock to the insecure borderlands. We have received weather alerts from the weatherman that they anticipate above-normal rainfall. This could change the fortunes or have some negative effects on weak livestock,” she said.

The warning is significant because livestock entering the rainy season in poor condition are more vulnerable to disease and sudden changes in weather.

The National Drought Management Authority's latest Turkana assessment paints a similarly difficult picture. The Short Rains 2025 assessment, conducted in January 2026, found pasture and browse conditions ranging from fair to poor across livelihood zones, while livestock body condition was also generally fair to poor. Livestock trekking distances had increased to 5–10 kilometres, compared with the normal 3–5 kilometres, while watering frequency had fallen to three to five days a week from daily watering.

Milk production, an important source of nutrition for pastoral households, has also been affected.

NDMA reported household milk production of only about 0.2 to one litre per day, compared with a long-term average of two to 2.5 litres. It also reported outbreaks of livestock diseases including CBPP, CCPP, FMD, Newcastle disease and PPR locally known as ‘Lomoo’, particularly in pastoral and border areas.

The February 2026 national drought bulletin similarly recorded fair livestock body condition in Turkana and a worsening trend in milk production.

For some families, remaining near traditional grazing areas is no longer possible.

Titus Lokorkeju, Turkana County Director of Peacebuilding and Conflict Management, estimates that more than 90,000 livestock have crossed into neighbouring Uganda, South Sudan and Ethiopia in search of pasture and water.

“At the moment, the county is facing an imminent drought that has forced more than 50,000 pastoralists out of their traditional homes to insecure areas in search of water and pasture for the livestock. We have pleaded with authorities across the borders to accommodate our pastoralists,” Lokorkeju said.

Such movements carry their own risks. Livestock crossing international borders can increase competition over pasture and water, while insecurity can expose herders to raids and conflict.

The pressure is also being felt within households.

Alice Akunoit, 36, a mother of six, says women often bear the greatest burden when drought strikes.

“Women always endure drought shocks because we trek for several kilometres in search of water for animals and families. We build shelters and take care of children. This puts us at the centre of drought climate shocks,” she said.

The consequences extend beyond the loss of livestock.

When herds migrate, families can become separated. Children may miss school. Women may have to travel farther to collect water, while households with fewer animals have less milk, meat and income.

The irony is that the same rain pastoralists desperately need can quickly become destructive.

Turkana County has previously warned that flooding along the Kerio and Turkwel rivers and other low-lying areas could cause deaths, livestock losses, property destruction and displacement.

During preparations for the 2023–24 El Niño season, county officials estimated that about 1.3 million sheep and goats could be at risk of displacement and feed shortages.

The county also warned that millions of cattle, small stock, camels and donkeys could be exposed to disease during flooding.

Floodwater can also contaminate water sources and damage boreholes, pipelines and other infrastructure.

That history has left communities wary of a sudden transition from drought to heavy rainfall.

In 2024, floods and other climate-related events triggered substantial displacement across northern Kenya.

An IOM assessment covering Turkana, Garissa, Marsabit and Isiolo identified 245,022 arrivals between May 3 and May 31, with drought reported as the main reason for movement by 130,098 people.

Turkana's own government has acknowledged that the county faces the twin challenge of drought and flash floods, with widespread livestock losses, acute water shortages and depleted pasture among the consequences.

The challenge, therefore, is not simply getting rain. It is how to make the rain useful without allowing it to become another disaster.

For pastoralists, the coming rains will be a test of whether early warning can translate into early action.

Several pastoralist communities in drought areas have urged the County Veterinary departments to respond to livestock disease outbreaks.

However, the County government have previously warned that water quality deteriorates during flooding because of runoff and contamination.

NDMA's latest assessment shows why such preparation matters. Although some recovery is possible when rainfall improves, livestock entered the year with depleted assets, poor pasture conditions and reduced milk production.

The county government and partners have already recognised the need to strengthen livestock resilience.

In March 2026, Turkana County said it was procuring supplementary feeds, veterinary vaccines and drugs worth KSh35 million, while its veterinary department targeted 300,000 livestock for vaccination, deworming, treatment and vector control.

But pastoralists say emergency interventions must be accompanied by longer-term planning.

Turkana's climate-risk assessment notes that changing rainfall patterns and increasing extreme events are putting pressure on traditional coping mechanisms, leaving communities with less time to recover between shocks.

Good rainfall could quickly transform the landscape. Grass and browse would regenerate, water pans would recharge and weakened livestock could begin recovering.

But recovery from prolonged drought is unlikely to happen overnight.

The NDMA assessment shows that livestock assets, milk production and household food security remain under pressure even when rainfall improves.

The Kenya Meteorological Department's forecasts are intended to support early action in sectors including agriculture, water management and disaster preparedness. The challenge is ensuring that information reaches pastoralists in time and that authorities have the resources to act on it.

For women such as Akunoit, preparedness would mean fewer kilometres walked for water and less pressure on already stretched households.