Explainer: DRC conflict- how did we get here?

A rebel militia known as the M23 has taken control of the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), instilling fear and displacing thousands in the capital, Goma. 

The group captured the city on Sunday night, after a week-long advance in North Kivu province.

This marks the second time the M23 has occupied the region, having seized Goma in 2012.

Origin of the conflict

The ongoing conflict in the DRC traces its roots to the first civil war in 1997. 

That war culminated in a rebel invasion that led to the overthrow of President Mobutu Seseko and the rise of rebel leader Laurent Kabila. 

Kabila came to power with support from neighboring countries and various groups seeking future benefits. However, when these allies felt under-rewarded, another conflict broke out in 2003, drawing in several neighboring nations.

The 1994 Rwandan genocide further fueled tensions. 

Following the genocide, approximately one million Hutus fled to Congo, fearing reprisals from the Tutsi-led rebels who overthrew the Hutus in the region. 

Ethnic tensions escalated as Tutsis felt threatened by the Hutus' presence. 

Rwanda’s army repeatedly invaded the DRC, claiming to target the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a group believed to be responsible for the genocide. 

Rwanda has consistently accused Congolese authorities of collaborating with the FDLR to destabilise their boundaries. 

There have been accusations of President Kagame financing the M23 group, an allegation he has denied.

Who are M23?

Amid the escalating conflict, the identity of the M23 remains unclear to many. 

The group is named after the March 23, 2009, agreement, between them and the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP), which they claim the Congolese government failed to honor.  

M23’s military leader, Sultani Makenga, fought in Rwanda in the 1990s before joining the Congolese army in the 2000s. 

The group is primarily Tutsi-led and emerged from the CNDP to combat a revolt by Tutsis in eastern DRC.

Is Rwanda involved?

Currently, the M23 claims to capture territory in eastern DRC to protect fellow Tutsis and speakers of Kinyarwanda from persecution by Congolese authorities. 

Rwanda's ambassador to the Great Lakes region, Vincent Karega, told AFP on Wednesday this week that the M23 could seize territory beyond Goma, potentially reaching Kinshasa.

“It’s possible because all the (DRC) forces and military capabilities were concentrated in Goma. The rest of the country is not as protected,” said Karega. 

As the conflict escalates, President Kagame has stated that his priority in the war-torn region is to destroy the FDLR. 

However, critics argue that Rwanda’s interests lie in the region's rich mineral resources, including gold, tantalum, and tin, which are crucial for global electronics and battery production.

A December 2024 UN report further revealed that the M23 was sending about 120 tonnes of coltan to Rwanda every four weeks, highlighting an increase in mineral exports from Rwanda believed to have been looted from the DRC. 

Rwanda has denied allegations of exploiting Congo’s resources.

Rwanda-South Africa tensions

In a virtual East African Community Heads of State summit yesterday evening, Kagame sharply criticised South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s claims that M23 fighters and Rwandan forces were responsible for the deaths in the region. 

In a strongly-worded statement on X, he wrote; “If South Africa wants to contribute to peaceful solutions, that is well and good, but South Africa is in no position to take on the role of a peacemaker or mediator. And if South Africa prefers confrontation, Rwanda will deal with the matter in that context any day.”

Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi has refused direct talks with the M23, insisting on discussions only with the Rwandan government. 

Tshisekedi has vowed to restore government authority in the east, where the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have taken control. 

In a televised address, he said a "vigorous and coordinated response" against what he called "terrorists" was underway.

The ongoing rebel offensive has created a humanitarian crisis, leading to the deaths of over 100 people recently, displacing about 500,000 others and worsening an already dire situation, according to the UN. 

The M23 is reportedly planning “territorial expansion and the long-term occupation and exploitation of the territories it has conquered,” the UN says.