Why Kalonzo and Gachagua are sending coded messages to Raila

Kalonzo Musyoka and Rigathi Gachagua are two politicians in search of each other in the belief that they need each other. Both have served as Vice/Deputy President under difficult circumstances which, they believe, qualify them to lead the country. Their mutual focus is William Ruto, the president, and his frequent political buddy, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. Although they would like Raila’s support in the effort to remove Dr Ruto, they are not sure which game Raila is likely to play.

Having failed in the attempt to grab the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship in Addis Ababa, Raila and his team are back on the drawing board trying to figure out what to do next. Kalonzo and Gachagua, aware that the former PM can make each of them look foolish, spend time sending coded messages to Raila, hoping that he would abandon Ruto’s political bedroom.

Both men struggle to be recognised as leaders and as presidential timber but each has negative images to overcome. In their days, both were strong operators in Kanu opposing multi-party agitators. Kalonzo, with a skeleton presidential operation centre in Karen, has a problem coming out forcefully as leader. His ‘watermelon’ image and his own judgment about being the most foolish man if he followed Raila again are constant drawbacks he must overcome.

He appears to have the Ukambani vote secured and hopes to have his base expanded to the Mountain and beyond. Presenting himself as leader of Kenya’s loyal opposition, Kalonzo has attracted the tacit support of Jeremiah Kioni of Jubilee and Eugene Wamalwa of DAP. With Raila chasing the AUC job and Gachagua battling impeachment, Kalonzo appeared to be secure as Ruto’s main challenger in 2027.

That image was short-lived because of two developments. First was Raila’s failed attempt at becoming AUC boss and subsequent return to the Kenyan political scene. Those in opposition are not sure of Raila’s plans for he appears to be wavering. Reclaiming all his leadership positions in the divided ODM, he is not sure whether to stick with Ruto and continue receiving political handouts or to join Ruto’s critics.

He is internally torn between those occupying lucrative positions vowing to support Ruto and others who are in the forefront of shouting ‘Kasongo must go’ and want Raila to be a 2027 ODM presidential candidate. This option rules out Raila endorsing any other candidate except himself.

Still others, Riggy G among them, hope that Raila will see the light and re-join the ‘crusade’ to defeat Ruto in 2027.

The second development is that Gachagua had refused to stay beat despite the impeachment saga which Raila had revelled in. Gachagua is a contrast to Kalonzo in that he is forcefully opinionated, exudes confidence, and assumes he has the entire ‘Murima’ locked in his ‘Wamunyoro’ base. Although he still carries the image of an over enthusiastic Moi ‘Special DO’, he has charisma and presumed bravery that attracts admiration.

His rise to popularity was because he has come out fighting after Ruto kicked him out of the deputy presidency. He accuses Ruto of high corruption and of an attempted purge of the Supreme Court. The more he ‘reveals’ Ruto’s misdeeds and plots, the more politically attractive he becomes as the real voice of the opposition to Ruto’s rule.

Kalonzo and Gachagua struggle to woe others in political deal making. They attended Martha Karua’s launch of People’s Liberation Party (PLP), with Gachagua declaring her as Kenya’s national ‘mother’. Senator Richard Onyonka, championing charismatic Fred Matiang’i as the Umogusii candidate, was also at the PLP launch and attracted Gachagua’s attention.

They all closely watch George Natembeya’s Tawe Movement and hope to receive his eventual endorsement. Although Gachagua is entertaining and commands enthusiasms, Kalonzo has a slight edge as a safe bet. To defeat Ruto in 2027, Gachagua is likely to endorse Kalonzo’s candidacy.