The glue that held ODM together melted after Raila's death

Raila Amolo Odinga’s death split his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which his strong personality had temporarily held together. He mentally shuttled between two antagonistic camps whose only agreement was that they adored, feared, and recognised him as the political glue that held them together.

While one camp blamed President William Ruto for the mess in the country, the other, composed mostly of Raila’s age-mates, acted as custodians of ODM and tended to defend the links with Ruto’s government.

Raila's death, apart from freeing him from the earthly political worries, melted the ODM glue, and fragmentation became open. Ruto asserted that he was an ODM founder member as he tried to expropriate it and probably become heir to Raila’s legacy.

With both camps claiming they were fulfilling his last political will and testament, Raila died a troubled man. This was due to his reputation as a ruthless dealer, always willing to sacrifice purported ideals at the altar of political expediency, especially after losing elections. He cooperated with President Uhuru Kenyatta to fix Deputy President William Ruto and then cooperated with Ruto to fix Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

Cooperation with Ruto was against the 2024 Gen Z uprising and portrayed him as abandoning ideals. The Gen Zs accused him of betraying the country and whatever cause he had previously espoused. The new perception was that, to save Ruto, he condoned police killings, abductions, and bad governance.

Such perceptions tarnished his well-calculated image of a freedom fighter, champion of the oppressed and Pan-Africanist. And it bothered him. This made him start wondering what he could do to regain his positive ‘revolutionary’ reputation.

Raila was especially bothered when serious questions about the party arose from within and exposed the myth of ODM unity and strength. The repeated myth of ODM being the oldest party in the country meant that it was good at exaggerating claims. This was because Kanu and DP are much older than ODM. Apart from exaggerating realities, various internal divisions assisted ODM in fragmenting itself.

Divisions shattered the initial impression that the Odinga family was united. Winnie, Raila’s daughter and seemingly with ‘Mother’ Ida’s understanding, asserted her political presence by projecting herself as a youthful ODM leader, claiming that only her father, Raila, had the capacity to steer ODM through the 'broad-based' political mines.

This sounded like a challenge to Uncle Oburu’s leadership in ODM, whose desire is to lead ODM into government in 2027. Oburu’s defensive statement that he would discuss the matter with Winnie in the home setting seemingly fell flat.

There were also leaders who thought that the linkage to Ruto’s UDA was not good for ODM's image. Seemingly rejecting the desire by some ODM leaders to continue with this arrangement, critics like Siaya Governor James Orengo resisted being swallowed into UDA. Orengo appeared to be more in tune with Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino than with MPs John Mbadi, Gladys Wanga, Junet Mohammed, and even Oburu

On his part, like Raila had tried, Oburu tried to walk a political tightrope between broad-based government advocates and the rejectionists. He even went to the extent of calling himself Gen Z and seemed uncomfortable being close to Ruto. During ODM's 20th Anniversary Dinner in Mombasa, for instance, Oburu appeared to distance himself by spitting a cake that Ruto had given him.

Despite Uhuru’s gesture of turning Raila’s grave into a shrine, which helped to rehabilitate Raila’s reputation, fragmentation in ODM remained. Politicians flocked to Bondo and were well received by Ida. This displeased vocal ODM honchos. Among those who visited Bondo was Wiper party's Kalonzo Musyoka, Ruto’s big political rival.

Kalonzo also had the support of youthful ODM leaders, empathising with the 2024 Gen Z uprising and rejecting the argument that turning against the youth was saving the country. Given a choice between Ruto and Kalonzo, they expressed a preference for Kalonzo. With Ruto claiming ODM shares, the party was fragmented.