Politicians' enmity is fake; they are just playing games on voters

A meme once circulated on social media depicting three Kenyan men—a skinny, casually dressed figure flanked by two well-groomed, towering individuals. The caption posed a thought-provoking question: How would you convince an African child that the unassuming man in the middle is the boss of the two imposing figures beside him? This image, though humorous, mirrors the complexities of Kenya’s political landscape.

In recent months, cracks have begun to show among Kenya’s political elite. Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, considered one of William Ruto’s staunchest allies during the 2022 elections, has now turned his guns on his former boss.

Meanwhile, Rigathi Gachagua, Ruto’s former deputy, is consolidating his influence in the Mount Kenya region, positioning himself as a formidable contender and disrupter for the 2027 elections. Analysts agree that even if he won’t contest for the top seat, he will be an inevitable kingmaker.

Elsewhere, Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi finds himself on shaky ground after voicing dissenting views that align more with those of an outsider than a government insider. His future within the administration is in jeopardy. Similarly, Raila Odinga, though perceived as an insider in Ruto’s government, remains noncommittal. His next move is uncertain, but whispers from the ground suggest he may once again heed the call to contest in 2027.

Meanwhile, the discontent and frustration with the current administration are driving citizens to rally behind dissenters. But how do I convince Kenyans that these politicians are not adversaries? How do I say it audibly that their real adversary is the voter? Politics, after all, is a chess game, and only the astute can think through the correct moves.

Kenya’s political arena operates like a well-rehearsed play dominated by a select few political elites. These leaders, who have accumulated power, wealth, and influence over the last four decades, sit and plan their strategy very well.

As elections approach, they plan to confuse their actual enemy—the voter. They assign roles: Who will oppose whom, who will support whom, who will criticise whom, and who will bankroll whom. I daresay that that is what is happening now.  This orchestrated dissent convinces voters that these elites have transformed, aligning themselves with the struggles of ordinary citizens.

The cycle is predictable. Dissidents gain the trust of voters, secure their positions, and then reconcile with their so-called adversaries to share the spoils of power. The voters are once again left disillusioned, blaming themselves and swearing not to vote for these elites again. It is all vanity!

For instance, when Muturi exits the Kenya Kwanza regime, I guess in in the next few weeks or so, he will mobilise voters in the Eastern part of Mount Kenya. His role will be to win the trust of those who are dissatisfied with the government—his recent anti-government pronouncements align with the prevailing sentiment on the ground.

Ndindi will focus on Central Mount Kenya and neutralise the Gachagua effect. These strategies are not new; I can confidently say that Ndindi and Muturi are poised to neutralise Gachagua and Kalonzo Musyoka. Whatever the case, that is how politics work. You are free to doubt my prediction but I believe time will vindicate me.

What about Raila? I have stated here severally that in 2027, Raila will support Ruto—either by contesting or endorsement. Either way, he will be helping Ruto to get re-elected.

To truly grasp Kenyan politics, one must adopt a broader perspective. Consider Uhuru Kenyatta’s actions during the last General Election, which placed Ruto at a vantage point: Endorsing Raila, withdrawing from Azimio campaigns, and redirecting his allies to UDA.

Was this a deliberate strategy or a mere coincidence? Either way, the “Yangu kumi na ya Ruto Kumi” objective was achieved, and we are yet to see the second part. When all is said and done, politics is a game played at the table, with the voter remaining the unwitting pawn. As the 2027 elections approach, let the most strategic player prevail.

Dr Ndonye is a senior lecturer at Kabarak University’s Department of Mass Communication