What Raila's powerful AU role could entail

Among his ardent supporters, the belief is that if elected African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson, Raila Odinga will be the "president of presidents."

As he laid out his vision when he was unveiled as Kenya's candidate for the AUC post, the former prime minister seemingly encouraged such thinking. He spoke of his dream for a united continent, promising to work with other leaders to enhance integration.

Raila also promised he would lead efforts in enhancing infrastructure and improve trade, pledges that pointed to the magnitude of the continental assignment he now seeks, which could see him in charge of the AU's day-to-day running.

Indeed, the position is significant, and it would elevate Raila among regional leaders. If elected, he will be AU's chief executive officer, legal representative and the commission’s Chief Accounting Officer. Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, a Raila ally in the National Assembly's Defence and Foreign Relations Committee, described the role as "very powerful".

"...because it is at the heart of decision making and interface of African affairs with international system," he said. "The chairperson works closely with heads of states and government in continental foreign policy as well as maintenance of peace and security ,and the new constitutive act of 2002 included the power to interfere in internal matters of member states for humanitarian assistance and protection of civilian life and de- escalation of hostilities," he added.

But while the position may be powerful, it does not equate to being a "president of presidents". The AU chairperson, elected from among heads of state and government, is closer to matching such a description.

President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani of Mauritania currently holds the ceremonial position. He chairs the AU Assembly, which comprises heads of state and government, who elect the AUC chair and deputy chairperson. This is the body with ultimate authority on resolutions of the continental body, which are then implemented by AUC.

The former prime minister has been meeting African heads as he seeks their support for his bid. On Wednesday, he met six presidents in China, including Mali's Assimi Goita, whose country will not be voting in the February elections as it was suspended from the AU.

If elected, Raila will be directly responsible to the Executive Council, which comprises foreign ministers of AU member states, a body that elects the other AUC commissioners.
At the helm of the AUC, Raila will oversee significant budget allocations, with an operational kitty averaging $110 million (Sh14.16 billion) annually.

The AUC's 2024 budget was more than $600 million (Sh77 billion), but the AUC is experiencing a budget cut of at least $200 million compared to the previous year, with AUC chair Moussa Faki Mahamat saying it would affect projects.

“This budgetary reduction poses two structural problems: firstly, the AU’s increasing dependence on our partners, which is regularly criticised, even within your Council, and secondly, the fact that the AU’s budget has been reduced to a minimum,” Mahamat recently said.

Budget challenges have plagued the AU over the years, with countries struggling to raise 30 per cent of the total. The situation has left them dependant on donor funding, mostly from the European Union (EU), which funds some key initiatives. 

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