Could Lenny Kivuti be the man to replace Muturi?

Amid his fiery outbursts and sharp criticisms of the very government he serves, particularly over alleged state-sanctioned abductions and the troubling disappearance of government critics, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Public Service Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi’s days in President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration are numbered.

The big question now is whether Muturi will bow to the mounting pressure from the president’s loyalists, who are urging him to step down, or if he will stand firm, potentially earning himself a place among the ministers who have been ousted by presidents for voicing dissent.

The spotlight is now on who will step into the shoes of the former National Assembly Speaker, who also briefly held the position of Attorney General in the current government before being replaced following the wave of Gen Z protests last June.

If Muturi decides to step down, he would follow in the footsteps of Kenya’s third president, Mwai Kibaki, who stunned the nation by resigning from government on Christmas Day in 1991.

Interestingly, Muturi now leads the Democratic Party (DP), the same party founded by Kibaki after he left the government to run for president in 1992, where he finished third behind President Moi and Ford Asili’s Kenneth Matiba.

Meanwhile, sources close to President William Ruto tod The Standard that former Embu Senator Lenny Kivuti made an unexpected appearance at Kakamega State Lodge during the president’s five-day tour of western Kenya last week.

Asked about the political significance of Kivuti’s visit, political analyst Martin Andati pointed out that it’s worth noting not just because Kivuti comes from the same Mbeere community as Muturi, but also because the two are close relatives. “And despite his two failed attempts to win the Embu governorship, losing to Martin Wambora and Cecily Mbarire in 2022, Kivuti remains a key figure in Mt Kenya East politics. That makes him a strong contender to succeed Muturi,” says Andati.

He further argues that Kivuti, who enjoys solid grassroots support, may have lost to Wambora and Mbarire due to ethnic dynamics, as both of the governors hail from the larger Aembu community in Embu County.

Given that Mbarire currently serves as the chairperson of the UDA party, it seems likely that President Ruto will seek to replace Muturi with a leader from Mbeere, further strengthening Kivuti’s position as a potential successor.

Kivuti’s unexpected visit to Kakamega State Lodge came just days after his Democratic Party Empowerment (DEP) leader, Kiraitu Murungi, made another unannounced trip to meet President Ruto at State House in Nairobi.

Back in 2022, Kivuti was among the few party leaders who voiced concerns over a proposal from Kiraitu to lead DEP into joining the Kenya Kwanza coalition. Both Kiraitu and Kivuti had run for the Embu governorship under the Azimio One Kenya coalition, which DEP had initially aligned with ahead of the 2022 elections.

However, after President Ruto’s victory, DEP became one of the parties that shifted to Kenya Kwanza. Some reluctant members, including Kivuti, addressed supporters, saying, “Kama Mbus iliamua itaingia Kenya Kwanza, hiyo ni mambo ya Mbus.” (If DEP has joined Kenya Kwanza, then it’s DEP’s decision).

A few weeks later, Kivuti reversed his position and publicly defended DEP’s move, addressing his supporters in Mbeere. He explained that the decision was largely influenced by the fact that the majority of Embu County voters had backed President Ruto and his political platform.

Speaking to the crowd at his Kanyuambora home, Kivuti remarked, “Joining Kenya Kwanza is not just talk. It is real, and we have solid reasons within DEP. We discussed the move internally and reached a consensus because the majority of our people voted for President William Ruto.” He added; “Kenya Kwanza is a partnership, and we’re not dissolving Mbus. We’re joining the coalition as equals. If everyone benefits from development, it’s far better than my personal ego.”

It’s also worth noting that Kivuti was persuaded by President Ruto to drop his petition against Governor Mbarire’s election victory, a move that further suggests Kivuti could be the one to step into the gap left by Muturi if he exits the cabinet.

Should Kivuti succeed Muturi, President Ruto would expect him to take on the challenging task of restoring Kenya Kwanza’s lost support in Embu, a region that has grown increasingly unfriendly. The president himself faced hostility during a visit to Embu last year, where he was heckled at a church event. Another attempt by Muturi to read the president’s speech at Kivuti’s son’s funeral was also met with rejection by an irate crowd.

Despite these tensions, Kivuti would have the backing of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, who recently hosted an Embu delegation at his official residence in Karen, Nairobi. Two weeks ago, Kindiki addressed the Embu delegation, emphasising his commitment to uniting the Mt Kenya region for Ruto ahead of the 2027 elections.

MPs aligned with Muturi have cautioned Deputy President Kindiki against depicting the people of Embu as “hostile and belligerent,” stressing that they have simply been demanding their rights and better governance.

Manyatta MP Gitonga Mukunji urged Kindiki to stop comparing Embu to Kondele Estate in Kisumu, pointing out that there is no volatility or political unrest in Embu or the region as a whole. “Whoever says Embu is volatile is misleading the DP. We’ve had demos in Embu, and I personally led protests when searching for Billy Mwangi after his abduction. People came out in large numbers, but no property was destroyed, and no one was harmed. I don’t understand why the DP is associating Embu with unrest while addressing the people of Tharaka Nithi,” said Mukunji.

The political landscape in Embu will be closely watched, given the long-standing rivalries and divisions that have shaped the region for decades, from the era of influential ministers Jeremiah Nyaga and Kamwithi Munyi, who served under Presidents Jomo Kenyatta and Daniel arap Moi.

Ahead of the 2022 parliamentary elections, it was widely speculated that Kivuti supported former Mbeere North MP Charles Njagagua in his two victories over Muturi.

The Embu Council of Elders, which plays a significant role in selecting leaders, has also been accused of interfering with the process. In 2016, the Ngome and Nyaangi Ndiiriri groups endorsed Kivuti and Kithinji Kiragu for governor. Njagagua warned the elders against backing multiple candidates for the same position, saying: “It causes conflict when you endorse me today and then support someone else tomorrow.”

The roots of Embu’s political dynamics can be traced back to 1969, when Munyi was elected unopposed to represent Embu East Constituency, holding the seat for two terms before losing narrowly to Silvester Mate in 1983—a defeat thought to be orchestrated by Nyagah to limit Munyi’s rising influence.

To undermine Munyi, Nyagah, a senior cabinet minister in Kenyatta’s government, successfully removed him as the Kanu party branch chairman in 1976, a role Munyi had held since 1962. With Munyi out of the way, Nyagah effectively controlled Embu’s politics. He lost his parliamentary seat in 1983.

The return of multi-party politics in 1992 had a profound effect on Embu, as voters shifted their allegiance from Kanu to Mwai Kibaki’s DP. This change marked the decline of Nyagah, who retired before the election, and Munyi’s seat, which went to Peter Ndwiga, also of DP.

Some analysts suggest that President Ruto could opt for Kiraitu to replace Muturi, given his connection to Mt Kenya East. However, this move could be risky for Kenya Kwanza, given potential backlash from Embu voters.

Andati believes that Kiraitu is more likely to replace the youthful Water and Sanitation CS Eric Muriithi Muga, as Kiraitu lacks the political clout that the former governor brings. “Ruto prefers working with people who add value to his political journey, and Muga, from Meru, could be an easy target,” says Andati.

Should Kiraitu be appointed, it may spark interest in media circles and generate debate, offering Kenya Kwanza a perceived sense of security. However, in terms of real impact, his appointment may not have much effect. “Young people will not celebrate the move to appoint Kiraitu, as he’s over 70 and still searching for a job,” Andati adds.

Prof Gitile Naituli warns Murungi against accepting a position that could tarnish his political legacy. He questions whether Kiraitu’s take over of Muturi’s Public Service docket could excite anyone, saying it would leave him as a mere figurehead with little power. “If they remove young Muga to give Kiraitu the water ministry, it would destroy his legacy. The Meru people would see him as a modern-day King Herod, the man in the Bible who killed all the children so that they could not become king,” he warned.