Ruto lands in Addis for high-stakes AUC election

President William Ruto arrived in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Thursday, two days before 35 African Heads of State and their representatives vote for Moussa Faki Mahamat’s replacement as the African Union Commission chairperson.

His early arrival indicates the high stakes involved in the race, which features former Prime Minister Raila Odinga as a candidate. Raila arrived  on Wednesday evening, hours after meeting Burundi’s President Évariste Ndayishimiye in a last-minute campaign.

Sources said Ruto hit the ground running, engaging in closed-door meetings to push Raila’s election. He was to meet several heads at an Addis hotel to discuss ongoing peace-keeping missions across the continent and AU reforms but the meeting was postponed to tomorrow. He is the union’s champion for Institutional Reform.

The Standard learnt that Raila would attend the meeting, where he will likely pitch his AUC candidature. This is part of a three-pronged strategy that Raila’s campaign secretariat is adopting, which involves reaching out to ambassadors, Foreign Affairs ministers and Heads of State and government.

As Ruto touched down in Addis, the AU headquarters was a beehive of activity. Foreign Affairs Ministers voted for the AUC commissioners and set the agenda for the Assembly’s meeting, which comprises Heads of State. During the meeting, Mahamat also tabled his exit report.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi attended the meeting, as did Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahamoud Youssouf, one of Raila’s challengers for the seat. The other candidate is former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard Randriamandrato.

The Assembly will meet tomorrow to vote for the AUC chair and on Sunday to formally appoint the four commissioners elected by the Council of Ministers. Four commissioners have been elected, with voting for two others postponed to July. They are Moses Vilakati of Eswatini (Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy, and Sustainable Environment), Lerato Matabonge of South Africa (Energy and Infrastructure), Bankole Adeoye of Nigeria (Political Affairs, Peace and Security), and Amma Twum-Amoah of Ghana (Health, Humanitarian Affairs, and Social Development).

Lobbying was intense at the AU’s headquarters, with Raila’s team engaging delegates in seeking support for Kenya’s candidate. The former premier’s delegation was hopeful of a victory, even as they were cautious not to count their chicks before they were hatched, saying they would wait for the election’s outcome.

Mudavadi told The Standard he was confident of a Raila win, highlighting their vigorous campaign for the seat.

“President Ruto has engaged all the leaders across Africa. I have equally played a role with my counterparts as Ministers of Foreign Affairs… we are confident that the extensive campaigning will yield results,” said Mudavadi, who described Raila as a “very strong and hands-on candidate”.

Last week, Elkanah Odembo, the co-chairperson of Raila’s campaign secretariat, told the Standard that they estimated that 28 countries would back Raila’s bid. Sources in Addis estimated that this number had climbed to 30. The Standard could not independently verify the claims.

Mudavadi dismissed assertions the vote would be divided along linguistic lines, a dynamic that historically features in the AU’s voting partners.

“I want to dispel the notion it is a competition between Francophone and Anglophone countries. I have voted for commissioners of the AUC and that did not play out,” he added.

Among officials from the Foreign Affairs Ministry, the general feeling is that Youssouf poses the strongest challenge to Raila. However, they are careful not to dismiss Randriamandrato, who also stands a realistic chance of bagging victory.

Indeed, the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) seems to be rallying around the Madagascan. On Wednesday, SADC’s Executive Secretary Elias Magosi asked countries within the 16-member-state body to vote for Randriamandrato.

“Honourable Richard J Randriamandrato, a former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Madagascar, has been shortlisted as the only candidate from the SADC region for the position of Chairperson of the African Union Commission… This letter, therefore, serves to encourage SADC Member States to support Mr Richard J Randriamandrato, a candidate from our region,” reads a letter to SADC Foreign Affairs ministers.

SADC countries are Angola, Botswana, Comoros, DR of Congo, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

The encouragement does not guarantee Madagascar’s candidate the SADC vote. Indeed, some countries within the bloc have openly endorsed Raila’s bid. Last August, Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu attended Raila’s unveiling as Kenya’s candidate at the State House in Nairobi.

Other SADC member states that have endorsed Raila are Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mauritius and Seychelles. The former premier recently campaigned in the region, meeting several Heads of State. Among them was South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa.

That Raila has sliced votes from his competitors’ backyards indicates high chance of victory, hence the cautious optimism in his secretariat.

Odembo had said they still had some work to do as they intend to secure a win in the first round, which will require the former premier to secure votes from 33 countries.

But there are fears that Raila’s competitors may deny him victory in the fifth round by denying him the two-thirds majority needed to win, forcing a suspension of the election potentially until July.