Expert: Why Raila Odinga is likely to win AUC race

Kenya’s Raila Odinga stands a strong chance of winning the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship if current political alignments remain unchanged, a diplomatic expert has averred.

Odinga faces two contenders; Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf and Madagascar’s former Foreign Affairs Minister Richard Randriamandrato.

With less than a day before the highly anticipated AUC chairperson elections in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, where nearly 50 African Heads of State will cast their votes, diplomatic analysts are weighing in on potential voting patterns.

Speaking on Spice FM on Friday, February 14, South Sudanese diplomatic expert Albino Aboug broke down his analysis of Odinga’s prospects, citing his personal networks and Kenya’s regional alliances as key factors.

“Let’s start with West Africa, for example, a region which has a high probability of voting for Odinga… So in this case you will have six or seven countries in Western Africa voting for him,” he opined. 

“Then come to Eastern Africa, our region, You have South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Eritrea and Ethiopia, about eight votes. So still, Mr. Odinga will have the numbers.”

He added that while Odinga currently has little support in Northern Africa, Algeria’s strained relations with France could shift some votes in his favor. “Algeria could bring in Western Sahara, Mauritania, Libya, and Tunisia,” Aboug noted.

According to the South Sudanese MP, personality and diplomatic influence play a crucial role in securing high-profile positions on the continent. Based on his assessment, Odinga could garner between 29 and 32 votes, largely due to his extensive political networks and Kenya’s diplomatic ties.

To win, a candidate must secure a two-thirds majority—at least 33 votes—from the 49 participating nations. However, Aboug cautioned that these projections hold only if voting patterns remain unchanged before the ballot.

“But elections are won after the vote… So I cannot say it is either a or b,” he said.

Odinga’s campaign secretariat has also projected a strong showing.

The team’s co-chair, Elkanah Odembo, previously claimed that Odinga had secured backing from 28 countries. However, he declined to name them, citing the secretive nature of the ballot process.

This year, the AUC chairmanship is reserved for an Eastern African candidate, while the deputy position will go to a representative from Northern Africa.