Gachagua, Ruto and Uhuru face crucial Mt Kenya by-election test

Once again, Mount Kenya, a region encompassing counties from the former Central Province as well as parts of Eastern and Rift Valley, is emerging as a key battleground ahead of the next polls.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who once appeared to have locked down this vote-rich region that produced 3.8 million votes in 2022, is now facing stiff competition as new and old players circle in.

Former President Uhuru Kenyatta has returned to the scene, seeking to revitalise the Jubilee Party, a shadow of its former self after being decimated by mass defections to President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ahead of the last polls. Wracked by internal disputes and diminishing influence, Jubilee now sees a glimmer of opportunity in the waning grip of UDA over the mountain region.

To reclaim Mt Kenya, however, Jubilee must contend with Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), which is rapidly consolidating power. Gachagua has garnered support in both houses of Parliament and increasingly presents himself as the region’s political kingpin.

Not long ago, Gachagua praised Uhuru as the region’s leader, a position he now appears to covet himself. Though he has not publicly declared his intentions, he is widely perceived as positioning himself for a presidential run, believing the path begins with complete dominance in his backyard.

In a bold move, he has encouraged his parliamentary allies to resign and trigger by-elections, turning the upcoming contests into a referendum on his popularity. The Mbeere North parliamentary seat, left vacant by Geoffrey Ruku’s cabinet appointment, will be the first litmus test in by-elections scheduled for November 27.

President Ruto, meanwhile, is determined not to cede Mt Kenya, a region that contributed 40 per cent of his total vote, without a fight. Despite some erosion of support, he still commands loyalty from key figures within the UDA.

Recent peace talks at State House between Ruto and Uhuru, widely publicised by Ruto’s team, sparked speculation about a possible rapprochement. While Jubilee insists it remains firmly in opposition, the optics of that meeting have raised eyebrows.

Some within DCP accuse Uhuru of playing both sides. On KTN’s Unfiltered Podcast, DCP youth leader Njeri Kahiga hinted at mistrust: “You don’t need to be told some things; Kenyans can sniff a betrayer from afar,” she remarked, accusing Jubilee of sending mixed signals.

University lecturer Prof Gitile Naituli echoed this sentiment, suggesting Uhuru is covertly supporting Ruto’s re-election: “That’s why Jubilee claims to back Raila Odinga, knowing he stands little chance.”

Indeed, Jubilee’s internal contradictions are glaring. While nominated MPs pledge allegiance to Ruto, party vice-chair David Murathe remains a staunch Raila ally. Uhuru’s recent interactions with Ruto further muddy the waters, frustrating DCP leaders.

As things stand, Mt Kenya finds itself split among three political centres: Gachagua’s DCP, Ruto’s UDA, and Uhuru’s resurgent Jubilee.

Gachagua has surrounded himself with a team of younger allies such as Senators John Methu (Nyandarua), Joe Nyutu (Murang’a), and Karungo wa Thang’wa (Kiambu), alongside Eastern Mt Kenya heavyweights Justin Muturi and Mithika Linturi.

Ruto, in contrast, is relying on Deputy President Kithure Kindiki to manage his Mt Kenya strategy. Other key allies, include Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah and MPs Betty Maina, Eric Wamumbi, John Kiragu, and Duncan Mathenge.

Uhuru’s Jubilee, though battered, still has loyalists. Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni, blogger Pauline Njoroge, and David Murathe have kept the flame alive, though defections to DCP continue to weaken the party.

Kahiga dismisses Jubilee’s prospects: “Uhuru couldn’t unite the mountain even with the power of the presidency behind him,” she said.

Prof Naituli agrees, adding, “Mt Kenya knows how to ignore politicians, and they will ignore Jubilee. The ground is currently with DCP.”

As the battle lines form, it’s clear that Mt Kenya will once again play a pivotal role in determining the direction of national politics — and the November by-elections may be the first signal of what lies ahead.