Anxiety as Kenyans brace for new fuel prices

Kenyans are an anxious lot as the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) is today expected to release pump prices for the next month.

The build-up to the announcement has seen stations go without petrol, with motorists stocking up on whatever they can get. Claims of hoarding and unclear communication from government agencies on the adequacy of reserves have worsened the situation.

This comes as civil society mounts pressure on relevant government officials to take responsibility for the Sh4.8 billion fuel importation saga, which is alleged to involve substandard fuel.

Further, the National Integrity Alliance (NIA), a collective arm of four civil society bodies, is calling for a special audit of the G-to-G framework, which the government claims has saved the country from foreign exchange pressures, thereby supporting cheaper fuel.

In the last month, the country has witnessed a chaotic fuel sector, marked by confusion involving the Presidency, with little to no accountability, while motorists have struggled to access fuel at stations.

As the announcement approaches, government communications are urging calm, but have not been matched by some industry players, who have raised pump prices above EPRA limits.

Calls for audit

Kenyans are now staring at a possible official increase in fuel prices, owing to President William Ruto’s stance on subsidies and regional trends, including a recent increase in Tanzania.

The anxiety comes as pressure mounts on authorities linked to the Sh4.8 billion fuel importation scandal to take responsibility.

Civil society organisations, including Transparency International Kenya, the Kenya Human Rights Commission, the Institute of Social Accountability, and Inuka Kenya Ni Sisi!, have called for an audit of the framework by the Office of the Auditor-General.

The G-to-G arrangement, introduced in 2023, allows oil marketers to purchase fuel from selected firms in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on a six-month credit arrangement, easing pressure on the shilling against the US dollar.

The importation of fuel outside this pre-negotiated arrangement is cited as the origin of the Sh4.8 billion scandal. “This fuel was a contingency measure due to disruptions arising from the US–Iran conflict, which affected global supply chains,” the report notes.

“Given the deep-seated concerns surrounding the G-to-G framework, including allegations of manipulation by some State actors and politically connected business interests, we call upon the Office of the Auditor-General (OAG) to conduct a comprehensive audit to assess its efficiency, efficacy, and whether it delivers value for money to Kenyans,” the civil society statement read.

“We further call upon the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) to undertake a corruption risk assessment of the framework and, together with relevant enforcement agencies, ensure that audit findings translate into concrete investigative, prosecutorial and administrative action, with clear timelines for implementation and public reporting on progress,” they added.

While the importation was sanctioned at the Cabinet level, the exit of former EPRA Director-General Daniel Kiptoo, Kenya Pipeline Company Managing Director Joe Sang, and Petroleum Principal Secretary Mohamed Liban through resignations has raised further questions.

NIA says that while the Cabinet Secretary for Energy bears primary oversight responsibility, there are also credible concerns regarding trade-related approvals, particularly any waiver or relaxation of stringent quality checks by the Kenya Bureau of Standards (KEBS) to expedite importation, offloading and distribution processes.

“In this regard, both the Cabinet Secretary for Energy and the Cabinet Secretary for Trade should take responsibility and step aside to allow for a credible, impartial investigation, as accountability cannot be limited to isolated offices where systemic failure is evident,” the civil society bodies said in a statement.

A statement last week by Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi ordered 60,000 metric tonnes of super petrol imported by One Petroleum Ltd to be withdrawn from the country, stating that the consignment would have increased the pump price per litre by Sh14. Its price was Sh58,000 more per metric tonne.

According to the March–April cycle, petrol currently retails at Sh178 per litre, while diesel goes for Sh166. In the February–March cycle, EPRA reduced fuel prices by Sh4.24 for petrol and Sh3.93 for diesel, but these rates were retained in the March–April review.

The April–May price cycle will be announced today.

In recent days, EPRA has intensified action against outlets selling fuel above set prices amid shortages. “Field inspections across the North Rift are in full swing to verify fuel availability and monitor stock levels at retail outlets and depots. Findings so far confirm stable supply chains and adequately stocked stations,” EPRA said on April 10.

The authority has also issued show-cause letters to 10 outlets found selling fuel above set prices, including Zabco in Cherangany, Jakam (Meru), M-7 Kilauty (Trans Nzoia) and Eqwipetrol Naja (Kirinyaga).

While the G-to-G framework has been the government’s defence line whenever fuel issues arise, this position is becoming increasingly blurred as developments in the US–Iran conflict continue to shift.

A few days ago, when a two-week truce was announced by Iran and the United States, oil prices softened to below Sh13,000 (USD 100) per barrel.

However, President Donald Trump’s recent stance on introducing a blockade of vessels accessing the Strait of Hormuz, after the two countries failed to agree on ceasefire terms, reignited a rise in oil prices.

By yesterday, a barrel of oil that had fallen to Sh12,000 was trading at Sh13,520. With neither side willing to fully de-escalate, the situation is expected to worsen, especially for African economies dependent on this route.

Ronald Mlalazi, President of the Africa Supply Chain Confederation, said: “Yes, oil is the headline. The International Energy Agency is already calling this the largest disruption in oil market history, with up to 30 per cent of global oil flows affected.”

“Prices are responding accordingly. Analysts are openly discussing Sh19,500 to Sh26,000 per barrel scenarios if disruption persists for four to eight weeks,” he added.

He further noted: “The same passage is used to import fertiliser, petrochemicals, plastic inputs and liquefied natural gas.”

“And that is where Africa gets hit hardest,” he said. “Across East and Southern Africa, dependence on Middle Eastern supply chains is structural, not optional. Countries such as Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Zambia are already implementing emergency measures, including subsidies and reserve releases.”