Double-speak master? Ruto eats own words, embraces Uhuru's playbook on fuel crisis

When President William Ruto was campaigning ahead of the 2022 General Election, he never imagined he would one day be forced to eat his own words.

In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, fuel prices skyrocketed. The conflict, coupled with a strong US dollar, pushed the cost of living to unbearable levels.

At the time, Ruto — then Deputy President and presidential aspirant — accused President Uhuru Kenyatta of cooking up stories while cartels made a killing from the petroleum industry.

Yesterday, however, it was President Ruto himself blaming the war in the Middle East (particularly tensions involving Iran) for the latest spike in fuel prices. Not only has he eaten his words, but his administration is now scrambling for the same explanations and interventions it once ridiculed from the Uhuru Kenyatta era, as the threat of biting inflation looms large.

The Ruto presidency now finds its very survival threatened by the same dynamics that propelled it to power: a crippling cost of living driven largely by rising fuel prices.

The latest review by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (Epra) saw the price of diesel rise by Sh40 per litre, while super petrol increased by Sh28.69 — marking the steepest single hike in pump prices on record.

Energy officials, including Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, have pointed to conflict in the Middle East, citing the pivotal role of Gulf countries as major sources of global oil. Kenya sources significant oil consignments from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

An embattled President Ruto addressed the public outcry over the sharp rise in fuel costs during a tour of Kisii on Wednesday. He insisted that the government-to-government (G-to-G) fuel supply deal had averted even higher prices.He added that a Sh6 billion fuel subsidy programme, together with a reduction in Value Added Tax (VAT) on fuel from 16 to 13 per cent — with claims of a further cut to 8 per cent — would cushion Kenyans from the price shock.

“The G-to-G deal has so far cushioned us from rising global fuel prices. Even now, we have dodged a sharper rise in prices. We have released Sh6 billion for a fuel subsidy programme and lowered VAT to moderate pump prices,” said Ruto.

The irony is hard to miss. Ruto and the Kenya Kwanza Alliance he led in the 2022 presidential race weaponised fuel prices to galvanise public resentment against the Kenyatta administration — and rode that wave of anger all the way to State House.

 At the time, a litre of petrol retailed at Sh159, diesel at Sh140, and kerosene at Sh127. Ruto accused Kenyatta and his officials of engineering an artificial fuel crisis that had driven up the cost of living.

Even unga, a household staple, retailed above Sh200 for a two-kilogram packet — prompting a subsidy that Ruto himself abolished upon taking office, citing an unsustainable monthly bill of Sh7 billion owed to millers.

Ruto and his allies — then styling themselves as the opposition despite serving in government — dismissed the Kenyatta administration’s claim that the Russia-Ukraine war had disrupted global fuel supply chains. Instead, they alleged that a corrupt cartel within the energy and petroleum ministries was manipulating prices to pocket billions from the fuel subsidy programme.

 Ruto led the charge, targeting alleged oil barons and cartels he accused of capturing the state. He repeatedly questioned why fuel was significantly cheaper in neighbouring Uganda — a landlocked country that relies on Kenyan infrastructure for its supplies.

On April 4, 2022, Ruto and Kenya Kwanza issued an evening press statement timed to coincide with the 4pm news bulletins — a calculated move for maximum impact on a political hot-button issue their Azimio opponents had largely avoided.

 “The people telling us about Ukraine and Russia are also telling us that there is no shortage of fuel. They are also trying to blame oil marketers. They are even conflicted on the reasons why we have an artificial crisis in the country,” Ruto said.

 “How is fuel in Uganda cheaper than in Kenya, yet it passes through Kenya? The explanation from the government is escapist and has no basis whatsoever. There are monopolies that have taken our fuel sector captive.”

 Kenya Kwanza rejected President Kenyatta’s push for additional funding through a supplementary budget. Instead, they demanded that the government stick to the existing Sh39 billion fuel subsidy from the Petroleum Development Levy Fund — this despite audit reports showing that emergency funds may have been irregularly diverted.

 Ruto further alleged that the subsidy had been deliberately skewed to benefit select, politically connected oil marketing companies that profited from ordinary citizens’ misery.

 In an X post on October 12, 2021, he wrote: “Decisions amongst them to ‘gift’ Sh12 per litre to private companies causing the punitive fuel costs while cartels rake in super profits must be reversed as soon as possible and all corrupt public officials involved or benefitting prosecuted. Price controls must be removed for competition to lower prices.”

 He later declared that cartels embedded in the petroleum and energy ministries had to be dismantled before fuel prices could fall.

 During the July 2022 presidential debate, Ruto promised to abolish the eight per cent VAT on fuel to ease the cost of living — even if it meant renegotiating loan terms tied to that revenue — and pushed for alternative revenue-raising measures. His administration did the opposite. But his 2023 Finance Act doubled VAT on fuel to 16 per cent, ostensibly to service Kenya’s ballooning national debt and wind down subsidies deemed unsustainable.This was despite the struggling economy having been one of his strongest rallying cries on the campaign trail.

 “These people hiking fuel prices and increasing taxes every day don’t understand the damage they are doing to the people and the economy of Kenya… we will form a government that gets to the plight of Kenyans,” he had pledged.

 In 2023, his administration entered the G-to-G deal with Gulf oil suppliers in a bid to stabilise fuel prices and support the shilling against the dollar.