Crop failure now, El Nino follows: Kenya's farmers brace for another disaster

Kenya is staring at a double farming catastrophe. Massive crop failure has been witnessed across the country after the long rains failed. But as farmers were hoping to get some reprieve from the short rains expected in one or two months, a warning by meteorologists puts a damper on efforts to recoup what was lost. The same El Nino that led to the crop failure is about to unleash torrential rains that will lead to flooding.

Former Chief Justice and presidential hopeful David Maraga has described the expected rainfall as "Godzilla" El Niño. The Africa Development Bank has called it a 'Super El Nino'. The banks climate experts estimate hits of between $10 and 20 billion in Africa.

In a statement, through his party, United Green Movement (UGM), former CJ Maraga cited forecasts by the Kenya Meteorological Department, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development's Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), warning of the likelihood of an intense El Niño season during the period.

The former Chief Justice cautioned that heavy rainfall could trigger widespread flooding, landslides and significant disruptions to agriculture across parts of the country.

"We demand immediate, visible action, including a national plan to protect smallholder farmers and food reserves, urgent release of county funds to clear drainage systems, reinforcement of riverbanks and establishment of standby local emergency response mechanisms," the statement said.

Last year, the government projected a bumper harvest in 2026, following the support of the Fertilizer Subsidy Programme, which distributed 21.3 million bags of fertilizer worth Sh53.25 billion.

Agriculture and Livestock Development, Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe forecast maize harvest at 70 million 90-kilogram bags, equivalent to 6.3 million tonnes. This is up from 67 million bags in 2024, and more than double the 34.3million bags recorded in 2022.

To absorb the expected harvest, Kagwe said the government planned to replenish the National Strategic Food Reserve by purchasing maize directly from farmers, to strengthen national food security and stabilizing the market.

“Our national food security has remained stable, with improved availability and reduced prices for staple foods. By replenishing the reserves, we are ensuring that farmers benefit from their hard work while protecting Kenyans from future food shocks,” Kagwe said while officially opening of the 2025 A.S.K Central Kenya National Show at Kabiruini Show Grounds in Nyeri. 

The initiative was intended not only to safeguard the country's food security but also to provide farmers with a reliable market for their produce.

In April, the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) reported that rainfall received in March 2026 had led to a significant improvement in drought conditions across Kenya's arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), with positive shifts in drought phase classifications.

"Overall, the drought situation across the 23 ASAL counties has improved," the NDMA said at the time.

Later, this changed and the anticipated harvest did not materialize as inadequate rainfall led to poor yields across the country's breadbasket regions of the Rift Valley and Western Kenya, exposing the nation to renewed food security risks.

The situation has been compounded by an outbreak of fall armyworm, a destructive pest that has caused significant crop losses for farmers.

Adding to the uncertainty, the looming threat of El Niño is creating fresh anxiety among farmers as they prepare for the next planting season, with its likely extent and impact still unclear.

The government has, however, urged Kenyans to remain calm over the anticipated impacts, assuring that it is taking all the necessary measures to protect them from hunger and the potential effects of El Niño.

Deputy President Kithure Kindiki has assured Kenyans that the government is implementing wide-ranging measures to cushion farmers and safeguard national food security following below-average rainfall that has affected crop production in several key agricultural regions.

"I assure the country that the government is seized of the matter of what has happened this season and what is projected to happen later this year. We are taking all possible measures to prevent any part of Kenya or any citizen from suffering from lack of food, famine and support farmers to make sure they don't get disrupted because of the unfavourable weather," Prof Kindiki said after chairing a high-level meeting with Cabinet Secretaries and Principal Secretaries at his official Karen.

The DP revealed, the government is closely monitoring the evolving weather situation and coordinating interventions to address both the current dry spell and the anticipated El Niño rains later this year.

The government also plans to convert failed maize crops into animal feed, enabling farmers to recover part of their investment instead of losing the entire harvest.

He said: "We are looking at modalities of using the crop that failed for making animal feed so that farmers can get some income from the crop even if it has not matured."

On the looming El Niño, expected between October and December, Kindiki said the government is holding weekly inter-ministerial meetings to continuously assess the situation and enhance preparedness for any emerging risks.

The coordinated response will bring together the ministries responsible for agriculture, water, interior, transport, energy and disaster management as the government seeks to mitigate the twin threats of below-average rainfall and potential flooding associated with El Niño.

"The government will go out of its way to make sure that this situation will not affect the food security of our country. We met this morning to look at some of the immediate interventions we need to make,” he said.

He added, the administration is working on measures to help farmers harvest mature crops early, improve drying and storage facilities and reduce post-harvest losses that often accompany heavy rainfall.

On July 2, 2026, Kindiki announced that the government had activated the National El Niño Contingency Plan to prepare for possible flooding and other El Niño-related emergencies.

The plan included reinforcing roads and bridges, clearing drainage systems, pre-positioning emergency supplies, preparing evacuation plans for flood-prone communities and issuing advisories to farmers to minimise agricultural losses.

“We want to tell the public not to panic. We are engaged; all the ministries and agencies are engaged to ensure in the event of the rains, the country is prepared and not taken by surprise,” Kindiki said.

He revealed that the government’s approach reflects lessons from previous El Niño seasons, when flooding damaged infrastructure, displaced communities and disrupted economic activity in several parts of the country.

In early May, Kagwe announced a series of government measures aimed at stabilizing maize flour prices following a sharp increase that had pushed up the cost of a 2kg packet. The interventions were intended to cushion Kenyans from the rising cost of the staple food.

Among the measures was the release of maize from the Strategic Food Reserve to ease supply pressures and help lower prices.

To further contain rising costs, the CS also announced that the government would allow the importation of 5.5 million bags of yellow maize for animal feed production. To encourage imports, the government waived 50 percent of import duties for eligible feed millers for one year.

“There should be no panic about the price of unga going up. We are going to ensure it does not go up by releasing maize from the Strategic Maize Reserve. We have sufficient reserves,” Kagwe said during the UN Food Systems Summit (UNFSS+4) at the UN headquarters in Nairobi. 

The CS explained that the move is intended to ease pressure on white maize, which is primarily consumed by households and whose prices have risen by 26 per cent.

By importing yellow maize for animal feed, the government aims to lower feed production costs, freeing up more white maize for food processors and ultimately helping stabilize consumer prices.

The government also negotiated with Tanzania under the East African Community trade framework to allow increased maize imports into Kenya to boost local supplies.

In addition, the CS urged local farmers to begin cultivating yellow maize to meet the animal feed industry's annual demand, which exceeds one million metric tonnes.

Meanwhile, by the end of June, farmers in Mwea were still stuck with more than 60,000 bags of unsold rice, prompting government intervention. In response, the government, in partnership with the Kenya National Trading Corporation (KNTC), launched a market intervention programme to purchase and clear the surplus stock.

It committed to buy locally produced rice in a move aimed at easing storage constraints, improving farmer's cash flow and strengthening Kenya's domestic rice value chain.

The exercise, jointly undertaken by KNTC, the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA), and farmers' cooperatives led by the Mwea Rice Growers Multipurpose Cooperative Society, comes as farmers prepare for another harvest while more than 60,000 bags of rice from the previous season remain in storage awaiting buyers.

AFA Acting Director General Calistus Kundu said the government is committed to ensuring Kenyan farmers have a dependable market for their produce. He noted that supporting local production is critical as the country works to gradually increase domestic rice output.

KNTC Managing Director Lucy Anangwe said the corporation is committed to purchasing all local rice currently held by the cooperatives, with deliveries expected to continue through mid-August before the rice is distributed to public institutions across the country.

"We are here to assess the situation on the ground and reassure farmers that the Government remains committed to supporting the marketing of locally produced rice. KNTC is fully committed to mopping up the rice produced by farmers," Anangwe said while leading the exercise.

The MRGM Cooperative Society, which represents more than 80 per cent of rice farmers in the region currently holds over 30,000 bags in storage and expects another 25,000 bags during this third crop season while self-help groups are holding over 15,000 bags bringing the total volume targeted under the programme to over 70,000 bags.

The cooperative's Chief Executive Officer Anthony Waweru said delayed marketing had affected farmer payments but expressed confidence that the new arrangement would restore normal operations.

"We had expected to pay farmers earlier, but marketing challenges delayed the process. With KNTC now taking up the rice, we expect to clear the current stock within a month and begin paying farmers by July 20," Waweru said.