North Eastern risks isolation as El Nio threatens key roads

North Eastern Kenya risks being cut off from the rest of the country as heavy El Niño rains threaten to render key roads impassable.

The National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) has listed six roads that could be cut off by floods, hence hampering the movement of food, medicine and emergency teams to communities that will be affected by floods.

According to Col David Samoei, Director of NDOC, Nairobi – Garissa, Wajir- Mandera, Garissa – Tana River – Lamu, and Isiolo- Wajir, Isiolo- Marsabit routes could suffer major disruptions as the country prepares for very heavy rainfall in the October–November– December season.

“North Eastern will be affected and we have to figure out in good time how our citizens are going to be supported in these areas. And we are reaching out to the counties, including the private sector and the business community in that area because if we don't prepare well, the citizens will suffer,” said Samoei.

Samoei noted that the threat was particularly worrying because some of the areas expected to be hardest hit are normally associated with drought rather than flooding.

He therefore noted that entire communities could become difficult to reach for emergency supplies once roads are submerged or damaged.

Although there are plans to fly food and other relief supplies to airstrips in Wajir, Mandera, and Garissa, Samoei raised concerns about how the supplies would then reach communities in the interior when roads become impassable.

“North Eastern roads will not be passable and we are working with the Kenya Defense Forces to see how they can provide air services. But even as we take food to certain airstrips, how do you take it to the last mile?” Samoei posed.

Road transport in North Eastern is one of the vulnerabilities facing the region ahead of the rains, raising questions over preparedness by the counties in the region, that was hard hit in the 2024 rains.

In Garissa county for example, the Habaswein-Abakore-Dadaab Road was closed, Nairobi-Garissa Road was cut off at Mororo section while the Garissa-Madogo-Bangali Road was also closed due to floods.

The roads that were closed by the Kenya National Highway Authority (KeNHA) in 2024 due to flooding were Madogo - Hola Road, between Madogo Junction and Bura.

Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Tana River have been singled out for particular attention citing the potential scale of the disruption. Samoei noted that while flooding is a familiar threat in parts of Tana River, the situation could be different in the North Eastern counties that usually grapple with prolonged drought.

He explained that the flat terrain means large volumes of water could stagnate for a prolonged period, hence making it difficult to residents to move out and for emergency teams to reach affected settlements.

“These counties normally don’t have problems with flooding. They normally have drought because they are Asal counties but this time now they will have floods. And their topography is flat, meaning there will have stagnant water for the next four months,” Samoei said.

The preparations come amid forecasts of heavy rainfall across much of the country, raising fears of flooding, displacement and disruption of economic activity. Kenya Meteorological Services Authority indicates that the rains could extend up to February 2027.

The agency indicates that North Eastern’s geographical isolation means that a disruption on one major road can lead to far-reaching consequences affecting the delivery of food and fuel, movement of livestock, access to health facilities, school attendance and emergency medical evacuation.

NDOC has asked the affected counties to identify evacuation sites in advance and establish where displaced populations will be accommodated and ensure the camps are accessible.

The agency is particularly concerned about avoiding a repeat of situations where schools are turned into emergency camps, disrupting learning and damaging school infrastructure.

The government is also preparing for the possibility of large-scale movement of people from flood-prone areas.

Samoei said county commissioners from the five counties had been brought into the preparedness process because they co-chair county disaster committees with governors and can provide a link between the national and county governments.

In effort to prepare for water-related accidents, including drowning and rescue operations, Samoei said the agency has trained a pool of about 26 divers countrywide who can be deployed anywhere for rescue operations.

However, he expressed frustrations with preparedness I the counties for water-related emergencies, revealing that the centre had requested for teams of swimmers from counties who could be trained in lifesaving, only for some counties to send people who could not swim.

“We told them to give us people who are qualified as life savers or people who can save lives. Some counties sent us people who can't even swim. We sent them back and retained a team of 26 fairly young people who can be deployed anywhere for search, rescue and retrieval,” Samoei added.

He further stated that they are working with the Kenya Coast Guard  and the KDF to position boats and other rescue assets in strategic locations with Tana River, Gamba, Kilifi and Lamu been identified areas that need particular attention.

Samoei said the Coast Guard had briefed NDOC on the serviceability of its equipment.

“They are not where we are supposed to be but we will work with whatever we have. Those that are not working right now, we will work with them to ensure that they are repaired and positioned strategically in areas where we think there would be a problem,” he stated.

The expected rains could also trigger a second wave of disruption later in the season as the rainfall shifts towards the Lake Victoria basin.

Samoei said areas such as Nyando and Budalang’i were being monitored because of the risk of flooding and displacement.

Fishing communities around Lake Victoria could also face disruption if rough conditions and rising water levels affect fishing activities.