Game of chess as titans scramble for Nyanza and Western

The Western and Nyanza regions, which were politically solid behind the late ODM leader Raila Odinga, have now become a battlefield not just from ODM itself but also for UDA and other parties after Raila’s death.

 As the country slowly adjusts to a political landscape without Raila’s commanding presence, leaders allied to President William Ruto and those in the opposition are now battling for control of the populous region, with analysts warning that the contest could redefine Kenya’s 2027 political arithmetic, which is shifting from the old folks and established leaders whose influence is under scrutiny.

 Raila’s death appears to have created a vacuum that both Kenya Kwanza and opposition figures are racing to fill.

 Yesterday, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka became the latest entrant to seek the blessing of the Nyanza voter as he camped in Rangwe, Homa Bay County, to market his bid.

 Similarly, in recent months, senior UDA-allied politicians have intensified political activities across Bungoma, Kakamega, Busia, Vihiga, Trans Nzoia, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Siaya counties, insisting that the region has already shifted politically and is now firmly aligned to President Ruto while opposition and ODM leaders maintain that the regions are firmly in ODM despite the death of Raila.

 Kakamega deputy governor Ayub Savula opines that Ruto has managed to put Western region under UDA party and he is quickly dominating, courtesy of the development he is undertaking in the region.

 “As we speak right now, 10 MPs from Kakamega will be defecting from ODM to UDA and they will defend their seats under the ruling party, courtesy to developments the President is doing,” said Savula.

 “I was Raila’s loyal supporter and Ruto has managed to convince me, not by coercion but because of development, and therefore we are going to UDA because of development and this region is now firmly behind Ruto,” he added.

 Political pundits, however, opine that the Western and Nyanza regions are embracing Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna as their new Kingpin, arguing that he was Raila’s exit plan from the broad-based government and that UDA is not anyway closer to inheriting the two voting blocs.

 “The Western and Nyanza regions are one and not enemies. These regions are quickly embracing Sifuna and we can say the young man is succeeding in controlling the region, ”said Barack Muluka, a political analyst.

 ”Sifuna was Raila’s exit plan from the broad-based government. He is an intellectual, he has the masses and he speaks the language of many common people and therefore UDA has no place in the region. Ruto should go back to the drawing board,” Dr Muluka added.

 Muluka argued that Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula cannot help Ruto to get the votes of Western region since they are outdated, a political baggage and tired.

 “Ruto should not bank on Mudavadi and Wetang’ula, and if he thinks so, then he is lost. He should now start looking for votes elsewhere. Mudavadi is an old and tired person whose political strength is over and Wetang’ula has lost touch with the ground and he has no following because Ruto has failed. He has not achieved even a half of the 47 treaties he signed in the run up of 2022 general election,” Muluka said.

 “The President should bank elsewhere to replace the votes of Western and Nyanza. The space that had been taken up by Trans Nzoia governor George Natembeya has been taken by Sifuna  because Natembeya was a lone ranger and Sifuna is embracing the entire nation. Sifuna’s age is ripe for leadership just like that of the late Masinde Muliro.

 Martin Andati, another political analyst, argues that UDA is unpopular in Western and Nyanza regions due to Ruto’s failures and it is warming up to Sifuna.

 “UDA is unpopular, and you can measure that from the recent UDA grassroots election. The turnout was low and that tells how the party is yet to be embraced in the region,”said Andati.

 “Western region has shown that it is behind Sifuna. You can see all his rallies in Busia, Kakamega, Vihiga and Kisumu were successful and the large turnout of supporters of the late Raila shows they have found a home in Sifuna. The Oburu Oginga faction might have a slight influence over Sifuna in Nyanza but with time the disgruntled voices that have been popular even in during Raila’s time might play in Sifuna’s coat.”

 Dismas Mokua, another analyst, opines that Gen Z protests created an environment for President Ruto to recalibrate his 2027 strategy by the formation of the broad based administration, which gave hiim a political insurance to embrace equity and equality in national resources allocation hence giving him a chance to make inroads in Raila’s strongholds.

 “It is the case that either by ommision or commision, Nyanza and Western Kenya have been marginalized in resource allocation as evidenced in infrastructure development, sugar sector growth and roles in the public sector. The broad based administrative has mainstreamed parts of Kenya that were marginal in part because of Sessional Paper Number 10 and it has allowed President Ruto to slowly win the regions,” said Mokua.

 “⁠Kenya Kwanza’s equality and equity in resources allocation has seen unprecedented infrastructure development. The probability does exist that voters whose electoral choices are informed by economic considerations may look favorably at President Ruto’s two term ambition. Ruto must however ensure that voters appreciate and feel the import of his policy interventions and development agenda,” Mokua added.

 He argues that Ruto should be careful with some political actors who are older and start considering the upcoming  young and vibrant leaders in Western and Nyanza.

 “In opening the Kenya Kwanza tent for other heavy political actors like Wycliffe Oparanya, President Ruto must be careful and treat with caution political actors who can expose him to reputational liabilities. It is the case that a number of young politicians in both Nyanza and Western Kenya are making rookie mistakes that can compromise President Ruto’s 50 +1 per cent equation. But Rigathi Gachagua’s brand of politics potentially makes it impossible for the United opposition to field a single opposition candidate to take on President Ruto,” said Mokua.

 Wetang’ula and Mudavadi have repeatedly declared that Western had “found its place in government,” arguing that the region stands to benefit more through cooperation with the ruling administration than opposition politics.

 Mudavadi is presenting himself as a key stabilising figure in the post-Raila era, maintaining that Western should avoid divisive succession battles and instead focus on economic empowerment and development.

 According to William Onyonje, a political analyst cum advocate, Raila’s absence has not automatically translated into the collapse of opposition support in the region.

 Instead, he argues, it has opened a new phase of political competition where loyalty is increasingly being shaped by economic frustrations, youth dissatisfaction and local leadership rivalries.

 “Western is no longer being treated as a peripheral region politically. It has become central to the succession conversation because whoever consolidates Western and parts of Nyanza gains a major advantage nationally,” he says.

 In Bungoma, Sirisia MP John Waluke and other Kenya Kwanza-allied leaders have been aggressively marketing President Ruto’s re-election agenda, even as some rallies face resistance from sections of the public unhappy with the government.