Trump's order on USAID operations hurts US and aid-recipient nations

 

The famous saying that when America sneezes, everyone catches a cough has been proven beyond reasonable doubt this past week. The decision of the Donald Trump administration to possibly discontinue the operations of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has been swift and far-reaching.

For instance, USAID is an easily recognisable brand not only within the urban areas but also in some of the most remote villages in Kenya. Few mothers from across different economic backgrounds would not have heard of this term. USAID-funded programmes have been central in children's immunisation initiatives for several decades in the country. In the streets, the majority of the people would have come across a condom branded USAID that has widely been distributed for years under the HIV/Aids prevention programme.

Victims of HIV, malaria, polio, tuberculosis and other diseases know USAID as their guardian angel when their governments cared less and public officials plundered their taxes.   

In the hotels and hospitality sub-sector, USAID has been a valued and trusted partner for conferencing business. At a personal level, I have been involved in several capacity-building projects that were supported by the agency in health, devolution, climate change, social protection and security. In addition, I have met and interacted with folks in remote parts of the country implementing USAID-funded programs.

So, when I hear that at least 14,000 staff of the agency have been sent on administrative leave with immediate effect, there are several recognisable names to me. The long short of it is that American Development Assistance has been part of our public life for the past six decades the agency has been in operation.

Those who have read the biographies of American former presidents, both Republicans and Democrats, will appreciate how deeply USAID was interwoven into the US foreign policy and security operations around the world. It is thus curious why President Trump would want to bring all that to an abrupt end.

From the foregoing examples, it is easy to notice that America has managed to dominate the global geo-political and economic order since the 1930s to lead the world from the great depression and the aftermath of the Second World War. America’s influence over the world has not only been through American-owned corporations that supply essential goods and services to our human survival but also through the US government putting taxpayer dollars into many sectors of poor and developing countries.

Founded by John F. Kennedy on his first anniversary as the US president on November 3, 1961, the agency seems to have been inspired by his earlier involvement in the famous Kenyan airlifts of 1959/60 when he served as a Senator. 63 years later, with a stroke of a pen, President Trump has disrupted that order significantly.

However, the actions of the Trump administration on USAID operations are not completely unexpected. Over the years, there have been growing concerns over the impact of foreign aid and justifications as to why taxpayer dollars should be sent to countries whose leaders plunder their own resources or instigate domestic conflicts.

The Cato Institute, in a handbook for policymakers in 2022 advocates for the US Congress to: abolish USAID and end government-to-government aid programmes; withdraw from the World Bank and regional multilateral development banks; not to use aid to encourage or reward market reforms in the developing world; eliminate programs that provide loan to the private sector in developing countries and oppose schemes that guarantee private-sector investments abroad; privatize or abolish Export-Import bank, the US trade and development agency as the source of international corporate welfare; and not to counter the increase of China’s foreign aid with more US foreign aid.

These salient arguments by the institute speak to the depth of the US involvement in the world economy and politics. Those who think it is only the poverty and humanitarian interventions that are at risk from Trump's actions are completely mistaken. The US interventions traverse trade, market regulations and reforms, research and development among others. This explains why the Trump administration has undertaken other measures to impose tariffs on goods and services even to historically close allies like Canada. Those who have tracked the evolving developments under Trump II, seem to have this twisted view that he can exploit the US dominance and influence to tax the rest of the world to run his government and bring tax relief to US citizens.

From a corporate point of view, it appears that Trump believes it is time for the US to recoup a return on their investments to the rest of the world of the past six decades. I joined an X-space hosted by Elon Musk earlier in the week, and this view seems to be deeply shared among top Republic politicians, policymakers, researchers and bureaucrats who support his administration.

What now is left in the minds of many people is: what next for both the beneficiary countries and the US itself?

While it may be difficult to project the long-term nature of the consequences of President Trump’s decisions due to their unprecedented nature, three things are easy to anticipate.

First, it is without a doubt that countries that have been recipients of USAID's generosity will suffer immediate reversals in key developmental indicators if their governments do not intervene to seal the budget holes left by the exit of USAID. The Cato Institute estimates the US was contributing $40 billion of the total global aid estimated at $168 billion in 2021. This translates into 23.8 per cent of the aid in that year.

The USAID website indicates its budget was $50 billion (Sh6.5 trillion at current exchange rates) in the 2023 fiscal year. The agency had an estimated 10,235 employees scattered all over the world in 2016.

This number was reduced to only 294 as of Thursday, February 6, according to official communication from the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, the topmost administrator of USAID.

Secondly, there will be retaliatory measures from foreign governments and jostling for the next leader of the world. Canada has since issued retaliatory measures and declared that they shall not succumb to bullying from the Trump administration. Various economic blocs are likely to realign in response to Trump's policies, with the future of prestigious entities like the G7 and G20 at stake.

Finally, and most importantly, as USAID exits from programmes that have been part of our lives, the memories of the agency and the US itself will soon start fading away. Probably, folks will no longer be so desirous of relocating to the US.

However, there is a silver lining to all this madness. Many poor and developing countries may likely be triggered to take full responsibility of their domestic affairs and resources. Many other leaders are likely going to find the courage to reject bullying or lectures from the US.

It is a true wake-up call, especially to African leaders who are fond of stealing their own taxpayer's money, only to go with begging bowls in foreign Capitals.

Ultimately, home is the only sweet home that anyone can ever find!