How Raila's AU candidacy could transform regional dynamics

On February 15 and 16, 2025, African leaders will elect a new Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC). Among the leading contenders is Kenya’s Raila Odinga, a seasoned statesman known for his long-standing advocacy of democracy and pan-Africanism.

Other notable candidates include Mahamoud Ali Youssouf of Djibouti and Richard Randriamandrato from Madagascar, underscoring the election’s competitiveness and strategic significance. As the election draws close, the geopolitical landscape is rapidly evolving with shifting alliances potentially influencing the outcome particularly within the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

AUC chairpersonship is determined not solely by individual credentials but by broader regional voting dynamics. Kenya’s 2017 bid demonstrated how fractured regional support and bloc politics can undermine an otherwise strong candidacy. Amina Mohamed’s campaign suffered from a lack of unified backing within the EAC, as well as an inability to secure SADC’s endorsement. SADC’s historical tendency to vote as a bloc makes it a critical factor in Odinga’s bid, yet Kenya’s current engagement with SADC remains uncertain.

In contrast, Youssouf has consolidated a significant bloc of support through his strong ties with the OIC, securing at least 28 potential votes from Islamic-majority African states. His extensive diplomatic tenure enhances his credibility among Francophone and Arab-speaking African nations, positioning him as a formidable challenger. If Kenya is to counterbalance Youssouf’s advantage, it should go beyond its current EAC region and secure SADC endorsements, expand its outreach to Francophone West and Central African states, as well as the undecided ECOWAS countries. They include Benin, Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo.

A key strength of Odinga’s candidacy is his emphasis on economic integration, trade facilitation, and infrastructure-led growth. His tenure as AU High Representative for Infrastructure Development (2018–2021) saw him champion major projects such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), and the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia-Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor. If elected, Odinga would likely advocate for greater investment in transnational infrastructure projects to enhance connectivity across African economies.

The AU’s role in conflict management remains one of its most critical functions, particularly in East Africa where persistent instability in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan threatens regional security. Odinga’s mediation experience, including his role in Kenya’s 2008 post-election crisis and the AU-led intervention in Côte d’Ivoire (2010–2011), provides him with credibility as a potential conflict-resolution leader. Odinga has also placed climate action and sustainable development at the core of his campaign agenda. His platform aligns with initiatives such as the Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program (AAAP), renewable energy projects, and climate resilience funding. Kenya’s role as host to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in Nairobi provides Odinga with a strong platform to advocate for climate action within the AU.

Odinga’s leadership could help consolidate a stronger AU position on climate adaptation and mitigation, but it would require extensive coordination with African states that remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels and extractive industries. To enhance the likelihood of Raila’s success, Kenya should adopt a multi-layered diplomatic strategy that moves beyond traditional alliances and secures key swing votes.

Kenya should also focus on strengthening its engagement with SADC, given its historical tendency to vote as a bloc. Beyond SADC, Kenya should expand its engagement outside the East African Community (EAC) to avoid over-reliance on a bloc that proved unreliable in 2017. Odinga’s campaign messaging should also be refined to focus on three or four core deliverables that align with Africa’s immediate priorities.

Given the high probability of a multi-round voting process, Kenya should prepare for a scenario in which alliances shift dynamically between rounds.

-Info@masharikirpc.org