Kenya Kwanza's blunders will return to haunt Ruto in 2027

William Ruto finds himself in the situation every president has found himself in since 2003 - the midterm political fallout. Mwai Kibaki had his within the first three months of being sworn in when the Narc Summit imploded over a Memorandum of understanding. Former Vice President Moody Awori in his book Riding on a tiger says when Narc MPs went for a bonding session in Nanyuki around March 2003, hard-line stance from the Liberal Democratic Party met hard-line stance from the National Alliance of Kenya.

Failure to skillfully manage this midterm political fallout led us to watch with shame as Kibaki swore himself in for a second term under the cover of darkness while his police were gunning down the people in in the streets. Hubris and self-conceit had resulted in a series of blunders that five years later Kenyans couldn’t wait to watch him vacate State House.

Then came Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto, his Kanu Secretary General William. Both were youthful and experienced as they had served in the administrations of Daniel arap Moi and Kibaki. The ‘digital duo’ as they called themselves looked like a match made in heaven. But soon, personal egos and maybe personal greed got in the way and politics of personal destruction kicked in.

Beneath the outward display of camaraderie between the Jubilee honchos, there was a strong drive to have Ruto dropped from the ticket in 2017. As Nicollo Machiavelli would say, Politics is half fortune and half skill. We all saw the skillful and the fortunate politician Ruto.

He survived the onslaught but the distraction the Jubilee government suffered led them to contend with voters’ reprisal which is best captured by the popular slogan in 2017 “Jeshi tingenu’’ meaning the soldiers (read young people) are not happy. As a consequence, Uhuru could not galvanise a convincing coalition.

To sanitise the mis-engineering of the presidential election, we witnessed an electoral abracadabra best captured by Raila when he called it “Vifaranga vya kompyuta”. Jubilee ended up a minority government. That is precisely what precipitated the now famous Handshake of March 9, 2018.

When Kenya Kwanza was sworn in, those that had voted for it reminded all who cared to listen that “Ruto is not Uhuru” to suggest that Ruto could not countenance a handshake with the Azimio coalition. In under 24 months in office, he was hit by a catastrophic midterm fallout that made him do what even a besieged Kibaki with only Central Kenya MPs could not do.

Ruto gave away key ministerial positions. Remember when the country was gripped by the talks of portfolio balance after the signing of National Accord? There are ministries such as Finance that Kibaki could not cede to his prime minister.

With the AUC ending in a disaster, not because of the doing of Ruto or the candidate Raila Odinga, the enduring question is, will the centre hold?

It must be remembered that in the volatile period after June 25, the government had lost all legitimacy to transact so much so that even government officials were not using the siren-mounted government vehicles. Like a rabbit running from the canines of hunting dogs they would hide from public view, until Raila donated his “experts”.

As such, what we call broad-based government is predicated on borrowed legitimacy. With the court determination that Kenya Kwanza is not even properly the majority in Parliament and a populace that is still restless, is it even logical for talks like ‘Kumi bila break” to suggest that this administration will serve for 10 uninterrupted years?

The short answer is that someone within Kenya Kwanza keen to decapitate Ruto politically has decided to run government messaging on hubris, inflame the passion of Kenyans so that he ends up as a one-term president.

In the same breath, I think that this could be Raila’s moment. Like Charles de Gaulle who was recalled from retirement to stabilise a country in crisis, Raila as a transitional president in 2027 might just be the magic wand.

Mr Kidi is the convener Inter Parties Youth Forum. kidimwaga@gmail.com