How Kenya and Africa should respond to Trump, global shifts

Recent events suggest that this year, may just write the obituary for overseas development assistance (ODA). What does this mean for human rights based, open and effective governance, global poverty and multilateralism?

In this new context, how ready is Kenya’s national and devolved governments to govern in line with the Constitution and their 2022 promise to the electorate? 

With most eyes on “Trumponomics”, it is easy to miss the broader context. Eleven other donor countries have also instituted massive funding cuts. Alongside the US$ 60 billion USAID budget cut, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Netherlands have also recently announced cuts of US$ 7 billion, 2.1 billion, 1 billion, 700 million and 330 million respectively. 

Constituting between 25-90 per cent of past allocations, the cuts are likely to see rich countries cut international obligations to contribute 0.7 per cent of their gross national income to international development in half. Preoccupied with Russian and American territorial expansionism in Europe (Ukraine) and the Artic, asylum systems at home and other domestic priorities, thousands of global poverty, global inequalities and disaster response programmes just got cancelled. Defence, tourism, market access and preferential investment deals are front and centre in new foreign policies towards lower and middle-income countries. The drift to “trade, not aid” has been met with euphoria from aid skeptics and free market economists. Aid is overly bureaucratic, inefficient and surrenders national sovereignty, they argue. Citing super economies like India, China and Malaysia, developing countries must prioritise local industry and self-reliance. These voices overlook one important fact. Developing countries are net financial contributors to the very same donor countries. According to The ONE campaign, one in five developing countries paid twice as much to service their debt than they received in all external financing. This ratio may rise to 1:3 in 2025. As external flows reduce, US$ 50 billion will flow out of developing countries, a figure larger than several donor countries contribute to ODA combined. Maybe it is time to re-read Walter Rodney’s How Europe Underdeveloped Africa” or someone to write another book “How Africa continues to develop Europe, America, UAE and China.” 

Kenya receives more than US$ 3 billion in aid annually, of which a third goes to financing the right to health. Strapped with a flaccid economy, huge debt obligations, asset stripping privatisation deals and weak domestic accountability systems, trading with increasingly predatory “partners” poses existential risks for the government.

How ready is the Government of Kenya to govern itself and are citizens ready to keep it honest and focused? The first challenge comes with how the national and county governments create jobs for millions of people. That our answer to the joblessness of millions is to export Kenyans like tea or cabbages has always left me perplexed. This employment strategy is purely dependent on other economies run by governments who now, clearly, say their nationals come first. 

The second challenge is how both the state and citizens respond to repeated credible and detailed reports of mismanagement and the theft of public resources by the Auditor General. This week’s shocking Social Health Insurance Fund audit deserves swift action by the authorities. Thirdly, as the long-awaited horse-trading over the Principal Secretaries comes to an end, will the list reflect merit and professionalism or paybacks for loyalists and campaign contributors? 

Reports from the National Assembly Speaker and the incoming Chinese Ambassador meeting that agreement has been reached for China to construct a new Foreign Affairs Ministry headquarters and finance the digitisation of parliament offers a fourth challenge. Should this proceed, this administration may hand two of Kenya’s most sensitive governance institutions to a country notoriously associated with several cyber-hacking scandals both in Kenya and at the African Union headquarters. 

Lastly, Kenya’s constitutional commissions, independent offices, human rights and governance organisations have been historically wholly or partially reliant on ODA. The sharp reduction in financing will cripple these institutions, accelerate misgovernance and corruption and ultimately contribute to national instability. New financing models are now needed to protect the institutions we have created. 

Irungu.houghton@amnesty.or.ke