Ruto's mid-term scorecard: Tracking promises, progress and policy impact

The Bottom Up Economic Transformation Agenda, also referred to as ‘The Plan, ’ is the definitive five-year contract between the Kenya Kwanza Administration and the people of Kenya.

The priorities in The Plan were chosen after a consultative and all-inclusive process with the citizens based on the impact on five targets, namely bringing down the cost of living, eradicating hunger, creating jobs, expanding the tax revenue base and improving foreign exchange balance.

Economic stability and reducing the cost of living

The government dedicated its first two and a half years to laying a strong macro-economic foundation. A stable economy fosters business growth, attracts investments, and brings down the cost of living. A major intervention in economic stability has been the reduction of fuel costs, a critical factor in transport and production expenses.

Foreign exchange stability has been another success story. In January 2024, the exchange rate stood at Sh160.8 to the US dollar. Effective monetary policies and foreign exchange management have seen the exchange rate stabilise at Sh129.19 to the dollar by March 2025. This development has alleviated the cost burden on imported goods and strengthened Kenya’s economic position.

The cost of living index has also improved, with inflation dropping from 9.2 per cent in September 2022 to 3.5 per cent in February 2025.

Interest rates have been lowered to support investment, with the Central Bank Rate reducing from 11.25 per cent in December 2024 to 10.75 per cent in February this year.

Managing government debt was another priority, with the fiscal deficit reducing from 6.2 per cent to 5.2 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As a result, Kenya’s credit rating improved, with Moody’s upgrading the country’s outlook from negative to positive in January 2025.

By enhancing revenue collection and implementing strict expenditure controls, the government ensured that more resources were directed toward infrastructure, healthcare, and education rather than excessive debt servicing.

Foreign exchange reserves surpassed $10 billion in February 2025, strengthening the country’s capacity to manage economic shocks and support imports.

Trade performance has also improved significantly, with exports to the East African Community rising from Sh226.4 billion in 2022 to Sh305.8 billion in 2025.

Agriculture remains the backbone of Kenya’s economy, contributing 50 per cent of GDP and sustaining the livelihoods of two-thirds of the population. Recognising the sector’s potential to drive growth and job creation, the government has heavily invested in value chain development, farmer support programmes, and agro-processing.

A key intervention has been the fertiliser subsidy programme, which reduced fertiliser prices by 67 per cent, from Sh7,500 per 50 kg bag in 2022 to Sh2,500 in 2025.

These efforts have resulted in a 39 per cent increase in maize production, with yields rising to 85.7 million bags. The price of a two kg bag of maize flour has consequently dropped from approximately Sh230 in 2022 to an average of Sh140 in 2025, thus reducing household food expenses considering that maize is Kenya’s staple food crop. 

Fishing and blue economy sectors have also experienced growth, with freshwater fish production rising by 12 per cent to 121,357 tonnes and marine fish by five per cent to 39,950 tonnes.

One of the key Kenya Kwanza manifesto commitments was job creation. This has remained a top priority over the last two and a half years, with the government implementing targeted programmes across multiple sectors. The digital economy, labour migration, affordable housing projects, and agriculture have been key drivers of employment expansion.

The number of online workers under the Ajira and Jitume programmes have surged exponentially from 41,382 in 2022 to 182,568 in 2025.

Skilled and non-skilled job placements abroad also grew by 1,279 percent, from 14,651 in 2022 to 202,125 in 2025, supported by bilateral agreements with the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Germany, and Austria.

Skilled and unskilled labour migration has also expanded, with overseas job placements rising by 1,279 per cent, from 14,651 in 2022 to 202,125 in 2025.

The housing sector also created an additional 188,256 new jobs between 2022 to 2025 through affordable housing projects.

Infrastructure is a key enabler of economic growth, social transformation and sustainable development. Investments in roads, water, energy, ICT, the blue economy, market construction, last-mile electricity connectivity, and housing have significantly improved access to critical services, driving progress for businesses and individuals. The main challenge in infrastructure development has been its high financial outlay, lengthy procurement procedures and prolonged implementation time frames. However, good progress has been made and the government is on track to fulfil its infrastructure commitments.

Electricity access expanded through last-mile connectivity, with 5,843,258 new households connected, increasing national access from 72 per cent in 2022 to 73 per cent in 2025.

Progress on social enablers and citizen welfare

Social enablers are essential in fostering economic resilience, reducing inequalities, and improving the quality of life for citizens. They serve as the foundation for a thriving society by ensuring access to quality healthcare, education, housing, digital services, and social protection. By investing in these critical areas, the government strengthens the human capital, productivity, and overall well-being of its people, paving the way for sustainable national development.

The Inua Jamii programme expanded significantly, increasing financial support for older persons by 66 percent, from 732,914 to 1,215,343 beneficiaries thereby improving their livelihoods, dignity and quality of life. Support for orphans and vulnerable children grew by 65 per cent, from 259,654 to 428,421, while assistance for persons with disabilities increased by 34 per cent, from 44,603 to 59,637. Women’s empowerment initiatives saw a major boost, with loan disbursements under the Women Enterprise Fund increasing by 92 per cent. School retention for girls improved through the distribution of 18.3 million sanitary towels. The government also increased the number of households that received regular cash transfers from 118,803 in 2022 to 127,797 in 2025 through the Hunger Safety Net Programme. It also increased beneficiaries supported with relief food from 300,000 in 2022 to 600,000 in 2025.

Expanding Universal Health Coverage

The most significant intervention in Healthcare has been the transition from National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF) to Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF) necessitated by the need to address NHIF’s inefficiencies and expand healthcare access under Universal Health Coverage (UHC) to all Kenyans, a key promise under the Kenya Kwanza Manifesto. NHIF faced challenges such as limited coverage, focusing mainly on inpatient services while lacking comprehensive outpatient care, preventive treatments, and chronic disease management. It was also plagued by inefficiencies and corruption, leading to slow service delivery and financial mismanagement.

SHIF has introduced broader healthcare coverage, including outpatient services, specialised treatments, chronic disease care, and preventive medicine.

The operationalisation of SHIF has had teething problems as would be expected at infancy for a project of this magnitude but is on track to providing universal healthcare for all citizens as envisioned.

The government has significantly expanded primary healthcare services through the Community Health Promoters (CHPs) programme, ensuring better coverage and improved healthcare delivery at the grassroots level. The CHP programme has made significant progress in household healthcare access, covering 8.5 million households, or 68 per cent of the targeted 12.5 million homes. Through their work, 331,265 Kenyans were referred for diabetes management, 711,172 for hypertension assessment, and 134,271 pregnant women received antenatal care. Additionally, CHPs assessed 6.9 million children under five for illnesses such as malnutrition, diarrhea, malaria, and pneumonia, leading to timely medical interventions.

Increase in education enrollment and improved transition rates

In the education sector, 76,000 teachers were recruited to address the rampant teacher shortages, thereby improving the teacher-student ratio and boosting instructional quality. The Competency-Based Curriculum (CBC) transition was supported by the construction of 16,000 new classrooms to accommodate Junior Secondary students, ensuring a smooth transition and reducing congestion in schools. The school feeding programme expanded by 15.15 per cent, increasing beneficiaries from 2,257,963 in 2022 to 2,600,000 in 2025, improving student nutrition and retention.

In technical and vocational education and training (TVET), enrolment grew by 42 per cent, from 340,713 students in 2022 to 484,313 in 2025 thereby improving availability of technical skills and employability.  TVET trainer numbers increased from 6,051 to 9,779, with 6,840 trainers trained on competency-based education and training. Higher education saw the establishment of the Open University of Kenya, enrolling 2,000 students and introducing eight new academic programmes. University funding increased, with 113,140 students receiving scholarships worth Sh 12.74 billion, and 112,741 students receiving loans worth Sh12.63 billion. In TVET, 52,452 students received scholarships worth Sh1.95 billion, while 151,933 students received loans worth Sh5.59 billion, enhancing accessibility to education.