Ruto's midterm scorecard: Progress vs misconceptions

At the midpoint of President William Ruto’s first term, the conversation around Kenya’s economic performance is as polarised as it is complex.

Earlier this week, economist David Ndii, one of the chief architects of Kenya Kwanza’s economic strategy, joined an X Space where he fielded open questions from the public.

What emerged from that candid discussion was a clear-eyed explanation of the economic model driving the administration’s policies.

Yet, despite these insights, a significant perception gap persists between the reforms being undertaken and public understanding of their purpose, impact and timeline.

Ndii outlined a fundamental shift in Kenya’s development approach. Instead of chasing the traditional manufacturing-driven job creation model, where creating a single factory job can cost upwards of Sh1 million, the government is pursuing an agro-based value addition strategy.

The focus is on growing agricultural productivity and fostering cottage industries that can add value without the heavy capital outlay required for large manufacturing plants.

This model recognises both Kenya’s demographic realities and global economic trends. The youth bulge demands scalable, decentralised job creation strategies. Smallholder farmers and youth-led micro-enterprises are being positioned as engines of growth, not just stopgaps. Perhaps the most significant yet under-communicated achievement is Kenya’s management of its sovereign debt.

When Ruto took office, many experts, rating agencies and political detractors forecast an inevitable default. That outcome was not only avoided but averted through fiscal discipline, restructuring efforts and careful renegotiation of debt terms. Yet, this success has barely registered in the public discourse.

The Social Health Authority (SHA) was introduced to plug chronic leakages that plagued the NHIF, where corruption and inefficiency undermined healthcare delivery. Ndii explained that much of the backlash against SHA has come from those who previously exploited the system.

Interestingly, the old National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) model disproportionately benefited PAYE (Pay As You Earn) contributors, formal sector workers who had greater access while leaving millions in the informal sector underserved.

Despite these strides, the government has failed to package and communicate its economic narrative consistently and compellingly.

In the absence of proactive, clear messaging, the vacuum has been filled by the opposition and critics, whose narratives, however simplistic or inaccurate, become the dominant discourse. Complex economic reforms, especially those that restructure underlying systems rather than deliver instant subsidies or handouts, are inherently difficult for the average citizen to see or feel in the short term. They require patience, explanation and above all, communication.

When the government does not explain why certain painful adjustments are necessary or when benefits will materialise, public frustration grows. This, in turn, becomes fertile ground for misinformation, fear-mongering and politicisation.

Kenya is now caught in a classic development paradox: real reforms are underway, but their benefits remain abstract to most citizens. Meanwhile, the costs, ranging from tax hikes to subsidy removals, are felt immediately. Without proper framing, these changes appear regressive rather than transformative.

It does not help that many citizens, understandably, equate economic success with immediate relief at the grocery store or fuel pump. But as Ndii explained, the administration’s reforms target long-term systemic resilience, not short-term political appeasement.

To shift perceptions, the government must do more than announce policies or issue defensive press statements.

It needs a sustained, multi-platform communication strategy that breaks down complex economic shifts into relatable stories, success indicators and timelines. It must engage not only through state channels but also through influencers, civil society, academia and even opposition strongholds.

Reforming the economy is only half the battle. Reforming how the public perceives and understands those changes is equally critical. In a media landscape dominated by soundbites and social media outrage cycles, silence or technocratic jargon will not suffice.

Kenya’s economic scorecard at midterm reflects a government undertaking difficult but necessary reforms. It has avoided default, introduced innovative job creation models and is restructuring broken public systems.

Yet, by failing to proactively explain and humanize these efforts, it has allowed critics to define the narrative. The government must now recognize that in politics, as in economics, perception is often as powerful as reality.

If Kenya Kwanza wants its legacy to be judged fairly, it must not only build the house but also give the public a guided tour.

- The writer is a political communications consultant