Why Kenya cannot afford to lose the EU coffee market
Opinion
By
Irungu Maina
| Sep 30, 2025
Though coffee production has declined from an annual yield of 130 metric tonnes to the current average of 50,000 metric tonnes, it remains an important commodity benefiting many people in the country.
Lately, the coffee sector has been having discussions on the European Union Deforestation Regulation that is supposed to be implemented by December 30 this year. Under the regulation, the European Union countries have agreed not to buy any coffee that is grown on land that is demarcated to be a forest. This is one way of mitigating the environmental impacts that we are witnessing globally. The ban will also affect other commodities like palm oil, soy, cocoa, rubber and wood.
From next year, exporting countries must prove that their products are not as a result of deforestation. Compliance will mainly involve geo-mapping of all coffee farms where coordinates are taken for the small farms and polygons for the large estates. This data will be used to identify the risks of deforestation and the coffee produced as a result of deforestation will be rejected.
This matter has been subjected to debate by the coffee stakeholders. Some have argued that the emerging coffee markets will benefit the coffee farmer if the EU rejects the non-complying coffee. In the local market, when a commodity like milk is rejected by the cooperative or a buyer, the farmers easily use the milk to feed their own families as well as the animals like cats and dogs. It can also be preserved through processing products like sour milk and ghee. This may not apply in the coffee sub-sector.
This is majorly because ours is a country that doesn’t consume coffee. It is estimated that Kenya consumes not more than 5 per cent of its coffee. Our neighbour, Ethiopia, consumes 49 per cent of the coffee that they produce.
READ MORE
Government steps up drive to cut imports, boost local production
New advisory board to boost Europe-Africa capital links
Co-op Bank backs young developers with Sh110m financing
Government presses China to unlock stalled projects
Family Bank shareholders to ratify plan to list on NSE
Why memorable experiences shape customer loyalty
Why saccos now want to bypass employers in Sh3.4 billion non-remittance crisis
Kenya looks to China's duty-free access after Agoa pact expires
We conducted a survey of the drinks we consume by positioning enumerators in a local supermarket. This was to compare tea, soft drinks and roasted and ground coffee. For the soft drink, we lost track due to the massive purchases.
The whole day no one purchased coffee. We cast no aspersion; this is our culture. Luckily the local consumption is increasing but by a microscopic percentage due to government strategies, increased middle class, increase in the coffee bars, among others.
It is therefore evident that we require the European markets. The EU countries have a high per-capita coffee consumption. In Finland each person consumes 12 kg of coffee, Norway 9 kg, and Denmark 8 kg. On average each Kenyan drinks 0.04 kilogrammes per year. European union countries buy about 56 per cent of the coffee produced in Kenya.
Experts advise businesses to protect their markets as they pursue other markets. It is evident that the EU is a vital market for the coffee that we produce and must be protected as we seek other markets including the local one that is highly unexploited.
In coffee studies, we learn that the crop benefits many parties including local businesses, service providers, the government and other parties not in the country. Of all these beneficiaries the farmer will lose most if our coffee is rejected by the EU. We must comply wit the new regulation so that we do not lose this critical market.
Dr Irungu is a coffee specialist