Why Ruto won't take us to Singapore

One of the most prominent recent promises by President William Ruto is his vision to transform Kenya into a first world country, developed and industrialised economy. It is a vision that has resonated well with Kenyans, given the rising expectations of better services and a higher quality of life.

He has often stated he will take us to 'Singapore'. It is a phrase that stirs emotions, since every Kenyan aspires to live better than their parents, and to a nation that Kenya’s place is not in the global South. But is it realistic?

The President’s primary policy focus, the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA), emphasises agriculture, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, manufacturing, housing, and the digital economy.

He is right to focus on these sectors since many Kenyans work there unlike previous growth models which concentrated wealth among a few and in a few sectors like finance, real estate, and tourism. In and of itself, this approach is sound. Kenya can never be a developed country if the majority of the population is shut out of the economy.

Agriculture is a crucial component of the President’s plan, with fertiliser subsidies, cash crop sector reforms, and renewed focus on food security. This strategy of boosting productivity and rural incomes has the potential to meaningfully reduce poverty and inequality if sustained over time.

However, agriculture faces many structural issues from climate change, fragmented land holdings and lack of irrigation. Subsidies will not magically create a modern agricultural sector without parallel investment in structural reforms and irrigation.

Equally, the focus on manufacturing and industrialisation has been articulated in various strategies to push value addition, exports, and special economic zones. These are all elements observed in other countries’ growth trajectories.

Kenya has several comparative advantages from location, regional markets and a young workforce. However, manufacturers are still facing significant challenges of high energy costs, high cost of credit, high and erratic taxation and competition from cheaper imports. Supportive policy must be consistent over time for industrial growth to take off.

Infrastructure development has been a flagship investment of Kenya’s development plans, and it is the single most impressive change in the country’s development since independence.

The country is far better connected and economically integrated than previous decades, but this has come with a large public debt burden. A consequence of this is that government has less fiscal space to invest in health, education and innovation which are critical components of advanced economies.

Dr Ruto’s administration has been forced to increase taxes and cut subsidies, not out of preference, but because the economy inherited from the previous government is already under stress.

As the government grapples with managing debt, reducing the cost of borrowing and getting the country back on track, citizens are bearing the brunt. We have less money in our pockets and the government faces declining trust when citizens are expected to pay higher taxes and feel no obvious returns. Citizens of First-World countries are not overtaxed; they know their money is used efficiently and transparently.

In the end, the most important determinant of Kenya’s development will be governance. Institutions matter, and a culture of the rule of law and accountability are fundamental to sustained growth. The President has made numerous pronouncements on the need to fight corruption and inefficiency in government.

However, there is currently a crisis of trust that will take time to rebuild. The public is rightly sceptical when scandals and wasteful expenditures continue with little accountability. This is hardly new. No country has reached First-World status without first building solid institutions.

The single most important resource for Kenya’s transformation is its young people. Digital skills, technical training, and entrepreneurship have been some of the most common prescriptions for Kenya’s economy, and it is good to see some of these investments being made. However, there are many competing forces that sap public investment like the perennially underfunded university system, an overburdened healthcare system and frequent strikes by public sector unions.

These symptoms all point to a need for long-term investments in our most important resource, our people. A feature of advanced economies is that they invest in human capital consistently over a long time, not just in election years.

Can President Ruto take Kenya to the First World? Realistically, NO. He will need more than one term and more than sound policy pronouncements to create a First World Kenya. He will also need to reinvent government, and there is a lot of scepticism on how he plans to deliver on his promises, given similar past manifestos.

But if his administration can stabilise the economy, improve governance and meaningfully expand our productive sectors, it will have put the country on a better development path. It will not be a First World Kenya, but it might be a different Kenya from the past. The first step to a better place is changing Kenya's direction.