Economic Survey fails to explain reasons for Ruto's unmet targets

If, beyond their defensive response to tough headlines, the Kenya Kwanza administration doesn’t believe what the 2026 Economic Survey said about our economy in 2025, then what will they think when they learn that the IMF’s latest 2026 projections put Angola’s oil economy back above Kenya’s diversified one, relegating us from 6th to 7th in Africa; from 3rd to 4th in Sub-Saharan Africa?

For the record, these projections also place, guess who, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 8th position overall, now suddenly ahead of both Ethiopia and Ghana.   The actual numbers, which you will not hear about in official speeches soon, are Angola at US$152 billion, Kenya US$147 billion, DRC US$123 billion, Ethiopia US$122 billion and Ghana US$118 billion.

To be clear, these are IMF estimates in nominal, current US dollar terms, where Africa’s top 5 reads South Africa at US$480 billion, Egypt US$430 billion, Nigeria US$ 377 billion, Algeria US$317 billion and Morocco US$194 billion.  As suggested before, if Kenya had hit double-digit growth from 2013, as Vision 2030 dreamt, we might be around US$350 billion in 2026. At the more modest growth rates projected in successive Medium-Term Plans under the vision, about US$240 billion. Consider this my rough “back of the envelope” take on where we are today.

As we jump from this uncomfortable data to the 2026 Economic Survey, it is worth noting that the IMF’s baseline for 2026, where they project Kenya will grow at 4.5 per cent, builds on a 2025 growth assumption of 4.9 per cent, when the Survey now tells us we only hit 4.6 per cent.  So, it isn’t just that a further growth decline is forecast, but our true 2026 starting point is lower.

Back to the Economy Survey, which puts our 2025 economy at US$136 billion.  Together with the more detailed Annual Statistical Abstract we should expect from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) in due course, it is supposed to be our “single source of the economic truth” for multiple stakeholders in Kenya – private sector players; potential investors (foreign and domestic); public sector and related actors; students, academia and researchers; other non-state actors; and of course, the media in its information, education and communication role in society.

Mostly, this Survey offers us a detailed portrait of our socio-economy, beyond the usual data bombing we get from the government on taxes, spending and borrowing.  Think of it as a mini-encyclopedia of national socio-economic outputs and outcomes, not just because of, or as a result of, government, but despite it.  You can then see why it isn’t the government’s favourite read!

Without running through the details in its 565 pages, here are five generic reflections on the Survey.

The headline GDP growth number of 4.6 per cent is a great place to start, but for an unusual reason.  Yes, we are all talking about a decline in our growth trajectory (which, as noted above, will get worse in 2026), but wasn’t this number a surprise?  Cumulative growth at the end of the third quarter (Q3) was around 4.93 per cent, implying that we had sub-four per cent growth – an almost 30 per cent growth slump - in the fourth quarter (Q4) (no cash for holiday spending?). 

What the annual data implies is that we had a wild Q4, with big slumps in agriculture and real estate (both effectively negative growth in the quarter) as well as wholesale and retail trade, transport and storage and information and communication, which more than offset gains in manufacturing, utilities, tourism, mining and construction (with implied double-digit Q4 growth in the last two).

Having seen other credible arguments on this growth result (at the turn of the year, I also thought we would close far better based on certain leading indicators), what might be useful from KNBS for trend understanding is their latest GDP estimates for Q1 of 2026.  Also, looking at history – 2023 and 2024 being the latest examples – isn’t Q4 our strongest quarter in non-election years?

The second angle to explore is a spatial perspective on this GDP data.  We should now be at the point where KNBS is able to generate this data down by county, namely Gross County Product. This way, we get not just a sectoral perspective on the economy, but spatial-sectoral ones too.

This is not to dumb down the excellent reports that KNBS produces.  Indeed, as a third and opposing reflection which our politicos would do well to take note of, one positive result we get from this Survey is a confirmation, or rebuttal, of all manner of data hawked to Kenyans by officials.  Again, much of this has already been covered across our media – think about data on job creation, or agricultural and industrial production - but we really need to graduate to a “single version of the truth” that emerges from institutions such as KNBS.  Note, “single version” as the data output, not “single source” as the data provider. That’s how we build proper institutions.

Which brings me to a fourth point: when do we get to the stage where this single version of the truth is a consolidation from multiple sources, such as KNBS, but also including, say, National Treasury, Controller of Budget, Planning’s Monitoring and Evaluation (Annual Progress Reports)?  That speaks to both government actions and the economy.  One thing we don’t get from this Survey, for example, is that this administration has fallen short of its promised targets, and why.

Finally, as part of this joined-up thinking, let’s not forget we’re in the middle of the 2026/27 budget season.  So, we now have an Economic Survey that tells us where we were at the end of 2025, without necessarily exploring prospects going forward.  Then we have 2026/27 to medium-term budget estimates just tabled in Parliament, which look at the future with little reflection on the current or past or the mindset shift from the annual budget cycle to a 3-in-1public finance management cycle (future year budget, current year execution, prior year audit and evaluation).

In the meantime, the National Treasury has called for “views, proposals and innovative ideas” to inform the June Budget Statement, where these documents lead.  In other words, thoughts to consolidate and scale up gains under BETA.  Interventions on cost of living, enhanced food security, and entrepreneurial opportunities for youth, women and vulnerable groups.  Proposals to scale up our human capital, advance a net export economy, ensure reliable and affordable energy and strengthen our transport and logistics.  How might we use the Survey to contribute?

Treasury also wants thoughts on measures to strengthen macro-economic stability and resilience; proposals to enhance domestic revenue mobilisation while minimising the burden on households and businesses and strategies to promote fiscal discipline and the prudent management of public resources.  We have until Friday, May 8th, to offer insights.  With greater imagination, these could have been subjected to, say, two-day public participation sessions on the Survey and the Budget.

As said before, a single column cannot do justice to the information treasure trove that is the 2026 Economic Survey.  Today’s reflections are a search for ways in which we can better process its messages, as much for an improved economy as for better government.  Without escaping the cheeky thought that maybe our economy moves not because of government, but despite it!