Why the birds are clapping for Wiper's Kalonzo

Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka’s crown has slipped for good. For the first time since breaking away from Raila Odinga’s ODM in 2007, he is politically stranded.

In fact, the Wiper party leader deserves a pity party complete with music and a DJ on standby. This is because he’s been badly dwarfed in a race that should have been his final realistic shot at the presidency. Today, the birds are cheering him for his many blunders.

Everyone agrees that DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua’s lethal tongue has dimmed Mr Musyoka’s voice within the Opposition. Forget this week’s TIFA poll, the Wiperman is no longer his team’s face.

In recent weeks, Mr Gachagua has projected himself as Kenya’s ‘de facto’ Opposition leader, and he does it so well. Then there’s ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna. The thrill surrounding the Nairobi senator has further pushed Mr Musyoka to the icy fringes. It would take a miracle to defuse the situation.  

Have the gods abandoned our former vice-president? That’s the big question. We must also ask: How does anyone square off against President William Ruto without first embodying a clear alternative vision for the republic? Yes, those out to oust the president must prove their worth.

Let’s call a spade, a spade. Mr Gachagua radiates energy in his ‘murima’ backyard. His politics is fuelled by bitterness, but he’s pursuing relevance and influence. Think of it, despite the former DP and Mr Sifuna being greenhorns, they’ve never waited to be spoon-fed. Mr Musyoka, by contrast, comes across as overly cautious and perpetually on the back foot.

Can the Wiper leader’s standing within the United Opposition be revived within the remaining 14 months? Well, first, he must reconsider his claim to Kamba kingpinship. His grip on that mantle feels stale. New actors from across the eastern region can easily occupy that space and bring the much-needed oomph.  

There comes a time when a leader has played his role and must allow fresh blood to step forward. Second, Mr Musyoka needs to overhaul his advisory team. Too many around him survive by clinging to his coat-tails while rarely telling him uncomfortable truths that can rescue his bid.  

Third, he must develop a thick skin. A politician who spends months lamenting accusations that he failed to build roads to his Tseikuru home village will always appear insecure and thin-skinned. The veteran politician should not spar with his shadow that much. National leadership demands resilience.

Importantly, he should embrace President Ruto now that political reality has come calling. Having been badly eclipsed within the camp he theoretically leads, Mr Musyoka will turn the tide in his favour by backing the President. Mark my words, a Ruto-Kalonzo ticket can be the real deal for 2027.  

As for Mr Gachagua, he possesses strong nuisance value. But his trajectory is deeply entangled with that of former President Uhuru Kenyatta. As two of the most consequential Mt Kenya political figures, they must either find a way to work together or risk mutual marginalisation.

The difference, however, is that Mr Kenyatta has little to lose after serving two presidential terms. He can afford a graceful exit. Riggy G, on the other hand, has everything at stake. If his onslaught against President Ruto collapses, as is likely, he will desperately need a political landing pad but there will be none.  

By the way if Mr Gachagua truly hopes to be a serious presidential contender, depending on the outcome of the ongoing court case surrounding his ouster, then reconciliation with Mr Kenyatta isn’t optional. Their relationship must evolve beyond ceremonial handshakes at funerals.

As for Mr Musyoka, joining the ‘two-term’ camp is his only survival window. If not, then a quiet exit will be more dignified than waiting for the tsunami to arrive. Not every political battle must be fought to the bitter end. Either way, Mr Musyoka and Mr Gachagua will have to eat the humble pie because the gods aren’t with them. The winds first favour President Ruto followed by Mr Sifuna.

-The writer is a communications practitioner