The comeback of Trumpism: What it means for global geo-economics and Kenya

The return of Donald Trump to the White House sparks an intriguing discussion on democracy, politics and the economy. Given the dominance of two major political parties in US presidential elections, Trump's victory was not entirely unexpected once the Republicans nominated him as their candidate for 2024.

Trump’s sweeping success in both the Electoral College and the popular vote leaves little doubt about the choice of the American people in the election. This outcome is particularly telling from an analytical standpoint, unlike Trump’s 2016 victory, where the popular vote went to the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton.

The world, including Kenya, has acknowledged and adapted to another Trump presidency, recognising the influence of US leadership due to its superpower status. The new administration signals a potential shift in approach, moving from imposing American policies globally to fostering a dialogue that prioritises US interests domestically.

While opinions and expectations on Trump’s return are diverse and often conflicting, one thing is clear: his second term is likely to be highly disruptive both economically and socially.

What, then, should the world—and Kenya in particular—expect from the US over the next four years, starting in January 2025?

The US economy remains the largest globally, with a gross domestic product estimated at around $29 trillion in 2024. In 2023, it accounted for 26 per cent of the global economy in nominal terms and 15.5 per cent in terms of purchasing power parity. Given its size, it is theoretically challenging for any one individual to fundamentally reshape its structure within a four-year term.

Nonetheless, the election outcome suggests that Americans strongly resonated with Trump’s “America First” message. This underscores the reality that American policies are primarily driven by domestic interests. Ultimately, regardless of who occupies the White House, US leadership will always prioritise the interests of America and Americans above all.

Thus, Trump is unlikely to reverse any of President Biden’s policies that align with American interests. A relevant example is the Kenyan mission in conflict-ridden Haiti. Critics of the Kenya Kwanza administration expect that a Trump administration would simply cut funding and bring the mission to an abrupt end. However, the real question is: does Kenya’s commitment of “boots on the ground” in Haiti serve America’s interests? It’s unlikely that Trump would deploy American forces there—he avoided doing so as the 45th president. This stance will likely extend to ongoing trade relations and negotiations between Kenya and the US.

In global geo-economic politics, we can anticipate a major policy shift in the handling of the Ukraine-Russia war and the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Notably, financial markets rallied following Trump’s win in Wednesday trading. Based on his campaign promises, there is a slight chance that Trump may push for a swift resolution in Ukraine, though this will ultimately depend on how his policies align with US allies in Europe and beyond.

The Ukraine-Russia conflict has heavily disrupted global supply chains and challenged the post-World War II political and economic order. Kenya, in particular, has felt the impact, as both countries are key markets for its exports of tea, tropical fruits and cut flowers. Moreover, a large portion of Kenya’s imports of wheat, cereals, fertilisers, and other strategic inputs come from these nations. A potential resolution led by the Trump administration would bring welcome relief to the world.

According to Forbes, despite the outgoing  Biden administration’s success on key economic indicators—such as average GDP growth of 2.7 per cent, employment at around 12 per cent, a 19 per cent increase in average pay, and a decline in unemployment from 6.7 to 4.1 per cent—it was the struggle to contain inflation that seemed to undermine the Democrats. Rising prices for essentials like gas, food and transportation eroded household income gains.

This trend of voter dissatisfaction with economic hardship has emerged in recent elections across countries like Botswana, Senegal, Ghana and even Kenya. President Ruto’s administration should take note of this growing voter discontent toward governments perceived as out of touch with the key pain points of ordinary people and businesses. The celebration of the Democrats’ loss by some Kenyans could be a warning sign for the Kenya Kwanza administration as it heads toward the 2027 General Election, particularly amid concerns over Ruto’s perceived closeness to the Biden administration.

Other key campaign promises on immigration and tax cuts underscore the priority of national interests and fundamental economic policies. Lowering corporate taxes for American businesses can free up capital to expand operations, create jobs, and grow investments both domestically and abroad. This should serve as a critical lesson for the Kenya Kwanza administration in reevaluating its own fiscal policies.

Trump’s stance on illegal immigration, which has now been reaffirmed by the American electorate, highlights the notion that one’s true home is the country of their birth. The idea that societies can elect poor leaders, mismanage their affairs, and then rely on opportunities abroad has been proven unrealistic.

For Kenya Kwanza policymakers, this is a warning: no foreign country can or will assume responsibility for creating jobs for Kenyans. Ultimately, every nation will prioritise its own citizens’ welfare. Under the Trump administration, it is unlikely we will see thousands of Kenyan workers heading to US cities for low-skilled jobs.

As the dust settles on Trump’s second term, debates will likely intensify over what drives voters to choose one leader over another. Socially, Donald Trump’s character may not be the most appealing to many outside the US, but the American people have clearly expressed their choice.

Ultimately, this reflects the sovereign will of the people. For the US, this should reinforce the need to refrain from dictating how other societies live. As Lincoln famously said, “If the people turn their backs to a fire, they will burn their behinds, and they will just have to sit on their blisters.” This truth applies as much to America as to any other nation, embodying the true essence of democracy.