Raila Odinga's AUC bid-Ruto support confusion leaves allies guessing

About a fortnight ago, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga referred to his style of politics as straightforward.

“I never want anyone to second-guess where I stand in politics,” the Opposition veteran said during the funeral of former Kenya National Commission on Human Rights chairperson Roseline Odede in Siaya.

President William Ruto is among those who would hope Raila meant what he said and he would pronounce himself on how he felt about the Head of State and his 2017 re-election bid.

But watching the funeral and other political developments, Dr Ruto must be puzzled. Facing mounting dissent in the Mount Kenya region, the President has cast his lots on Raila’s African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson bid.

The general observation is that Ruto expects to reap Raila’s traditional bases, such as the former premier’s Nyanza home turf, if the former prime minister wins the AUC chairperson seat. At the moment, Ruto does not look like he has a Plan B on winning back the votes he could potentially lose if Mt Kenya deserts him.

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In campaigning for the Opposition veteran, Ruto leaves no stone unturned. He brings Raila along on trips featuring African Heads of State and ensures the former premier engages them.

On Wednesday, Raila was part of Ruto’s delegation that met Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. A day earlier, the pair was in Arusha for the AU’s Energy Summit, rallying support for the former Prime Minister’s bid.

Even in lone engagements with his African peers, such as the recent AU reforms meeting, Ruto champions Raila’s AUC bid, earning commitments that could tilt the scales in favour of the former premier.

But Raila is sending mixed signals and increasingly looks like he does not fancy having all his eggs in one basket. The former Prime Minister appears hesitant to join Ruto, consistently denying the existence of any formal arrangement between them.

Raila’s allies have struggled to interpret his signals over his partnership with the President. The emergence of two camps within Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement, both of which claim to enjoy the former premier’s blessings, show he is playing it safe. A source close to the former premier said that he did not think Raila had made up his mind on his future with or without Ruto.

Some of his allies welcome a coalition that will see ODM support Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027. Others cannot stand the thought. Members of both sides have said their piece with no sanctions, despite warnings from the party’s top organ against singing Ruto’s praises.

These differences played out during Odede’s funeral, with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna (ODM’s Secretary General) and Siaya Governor James Orengo leading the anti-Ruto chorus. Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga (ODM’s chairperson) and Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi beat the President’s drum.

“Baba, they are telling me that I should stay silent in the face of the hypocrisy in the government because I will hurt your AU vote,” said Sifuna.

Wanga responded, stating ODM was strategizing to form the next government, “whether as a single party or part of a coalition.”

READ: Ruto, Raila seek to avoid mistakes of 2017 in the push for AU top seat

“When we find someone who says we want to unite this whole country, we support fully. We are behind Agwambo as he heads to the African Union and he is still our leader. If he says left, we go left. If he says right, we go right,” Wanga said during the event attended by Raila.

Sources have told The Sunday Standard that the former premier is not too eager to tame the divergent positions in his party, whose leadership he temporarily handed to Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o.

Political scientist Amukowa Anangwe observed that both sides could be receiving their briefs from Raila as he “tries to manage political anxieties among leaders and his constituency.”

“Maybe he is talking to both. I have seen this in practice in which you tell one group to say this and the other to say another and end up coming out as ambivalent. There is no way Sifuna and Wanga can say things contrary to Raila,” said Prof Anangwe, who once served as Kenya’s Foreign Affairs minister.

University lecturer of History and International Relations Macharia Munene said Raila “had the capacity to do so” about whether the former premier could issue conflicting briefs to his troops.

“When Sifuna talks, he says he consulted with Raila. Others supporting the government also believe that Raila is within the government and they must be with him there,” said Prof Munene, who observed that the divisions in ODM were genuine.

Anangwe argued that Raila was more interested in ensuring his party was intact, suggesting he intended to retain his bargaining power.

“In such situations, you cannot give a categorical answer because if you appear already committed to one position then those who hold the contrary view could shift their loyalty. People are only loyal to you because they stand to gain. I believe Raila is trying to keep his constituency intact so that it could be useful to anyone he may partner up with in future,” added Anangwe.

Sifuna has recently followed up his criticism, challenging members of his ODM party who wanted to abandon their opposition role to resign and join Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance.

Such remarks are not encouraging to a man hoping to inherit Raila’s bases. Ruto has not shied from expressing his expectations of Nyanza in the next polls, and he wishes that the region will return the favour for his support of Raila’s presidential bid in 2007 and the AUC chairperson position. When in Raila’s territory, he praises the once bitter foe.

“I will help Baba because he is our Mzee, because we respect him and because he has contributed to Kenya’s democracy,” the Head of State said last August during a tour of Nyanza.

The President’s allies also expect a reward for their support of Ruto. Last year, Parliament’s majority leaders, Kimani Ichung’wah (National Assembly) and Aaron Cheruiyot (Senate), had warned that Raila should toe the line if he wanted the government’s support for his AUC bid.

“Be a decent human being and respect the fact that we are doing a magnanimous thing by holding your hand to make sure you become the chairperson of the AU, and we are doing it unconditionally. The only request we are making of you is that you be a gentleman, be respectful and honour those who are trying to help you,” Cheruiyot said in response to anti-Ruto remarks by Raila.

More recently, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi has suggested that Ruto and Raila are already in a partnership, saying no person would beat the President in the next polls with Raila in his corner.

Insiders sympathetic to Ruto tell of plans to popularise the President in Raila’s native Nyanza if the former Prime Minister is successful in AUC elections to be held mid-next month.

“If Raila wins the AUC seat then Ruto will camp in our region and make it difficult for anyone else to penetrate the region. The people have shown they are receptive to him,” said a Member of Parliament who spoke off the record.

Insiders said Ruto is assembling a team to lead his campaigns in Nyanza, which comprises Raila’s allies. He is hopeful that a Raila victory could boost his popularity in Nyanza.

However, he will have to contend with resistance from others who oppose a coalition between ODM and UDA. The Sunday Standard has reliably established that some lawmakers feel that Raila could ride on Ruto’s growing unpopularity and that the opposition could win the 2027 polls.

The argument is that even if he wins the AUC post, the former Prime Minister would not owe Ruto any favour as he helped stabilise his administration amid a youth-led revolt last year that brought the government to its knees.

Raila recently said there was no one taking him to the AU, remarks that suggest that he is not treating the government’s support as a favour. In the early days of his AUC candidacy, Raila made this point several times. He toned down when the government went all out to support his bid.

While Uriri Member of Parliament Mark Nyamita agrees that Raila would not owe the Head of State any political debt, he insists that the former premier would owe Ruto some “gratitude”.

“When Baba wins the AUC seat, it will be because of his credentials. He has what it takes to be successful and is deserving of the position. He will owe the President some gratitude for creating an enabling environment for his campaign and victory, and it would be good to pay it in kind,” said Nyamita.

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Anangwe noted that Raila’s pursuit of the AUC position had created a dilemma for him, saying the former premier had to “manage the situation delicately.”

Raila, a master at keeping his cards hidden, has kept allies guessing in the past. When he made his fourth stab at the presidency in 2017, observers suggested that he would step back in the 2022 polls. The 2017 election had been described as Raila’s last bullet.

In the intervening period, the former premier did not commit to whether he would seek the presidency again, only to announce his candidacy in December 2021. Allies like Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who had said he would be a fool to support Raila again, had hoped they would have their turn.

Kalonzo ended up supporting Raila’s fifth bid and it was expected that he would be the opposition’s flagbearer in 2027. The dynamics have changed and it is uncertain that Raila will back the former Vice President, who has been reluctant to clash with the former premier.

Like Ruto, Kalonzo finds himself watching and waiting for Raila’s next move. In recent months, Raila has not given any hints about supporting the Wiper leader and has seemed closer to Ruto. However, Sifuna’s move to join Kalonzo during a service in Dagoretti last Sunday could signal that Raila is still weighing his options.