Intrigues of Raila's AUC loss

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga  suffered a setback Saturday, losing the African Union Commission chairperson race to Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmoud Youssouf, in what several delegates told the Sunday Standard was “surprising”.

However, as we established, a mix of last-minute blunders and shifting dynamics could have cost the opposition veteran, who has lost five bids to be Kenya’s president, the coveted position, prolonging his life-long search for the elusive win.

Youssouf won 33 votes in round seven, the last round of voting, to claim continental glory. Raila had taken an early lead in Rounds One and Two, securing 20 and 22 votes, respectively.

The Djiboutian trailed closely with 18 and 19 in the initial rounds. Madagascar’s former Foreign Minister Richard Randriamandrato managed 10 and seven votes, respectively.

Youssouf turned the tide in Round Three, beating Raila by 23 against 20 votes. He would win all the latter rounds. Randriamandrato, who automatically dropped out after the round, got five.

As the rounds wore on, Raila, whose campaign secretariat had predicted would get 28 votes, seemed to have reached his saturation point. Djibouti’s candidate beat Raila 25 to 21 in the fourth round, winning the sixth 26 against Raila’s 22.

The former premier dropped out automatically, leaving Youssouf to enter the seventh round alone, where it was largely expected that he would secure the two-thirds needed to replace Moussa Faki Mahamat as chairperson.

To many delegates we spoke to, it was surprising that Raila lost the election. More famous than the Djiboutian, many had predicted he would do enough to secure the position.

Indeed, the mood at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, was almost celebratory in the early hours of yesterday. Delegates from Kenya looked as confident as ever, predicting a convincing victory for the former prime minister.

Over 100 elected officials flew to Addis to be part of “Baba’s” (as they fondly called him) big moment. They escorted him to the Nelson Mandela Hall where Heads of State and Government would sink Raila’s political ambitions, birthed a year ago.

At the plenary’s first floor, gleeful allies spectated the event. If there had been a census of the attendees, most would have undoubtedly been Kenyans. And a host of Raila’s support base, accredited to witness the closed voting session, would register their presence when the opposition veteran was invited on stage to pitch his candidature to Africa’s heads.

Some cheered the former premier on as he made his way to deliver an address on the continent’s Pan-African dream as fronted by its founding fathers. Youssouf had just shared his ambitions and had a muted reception.

It did not seem like a big deal that the Djiboutian sought the AUC position. It was for the Kenyan delegation of politicians, who had sung Raila’s praises a day earlier when they invited Raila out for lunch. That they flew from Kenya in their numbers, fully booking flights from Nairobi to Addis, proved how important they thought their presence was. They had planned to celebrate Raila’s victory later in the night.

Their candidate was, indeed, strong and it showed in the fact that his race with Youssouf was neck-to-neck. The Kenyan delegation had gone all out in campaigning for Raila, meeting Heads of State hours before they voted.

Ruto met Angola’s President João Lourenço Friday evening. Earlier that day, the Head of State met Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and Presidents Bassirou Diomaye Faye (Senegal), Alassane Dramane Ouattara (Cote d’Ivoire), Abdelmadjid Tebboune (Algeria), Hakainde Hichilema (Zambia) and Draham Gokhool (Mauritius).

At the plenary session of the 38th Ordinary Session of the AU’s Assembly of Heads of State and Government, Ruto often engaged Heads of State seated next to him, perhaps spreading Raila’s gospel one last time.

Raila sat behind Ruto and beside Mudavadi. Behind them were Director-General of the National Intelligence Service Noordin Haji and Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei, who spent as much time on his seat as he did bent, offering Ruto a listening ear as the president sought what seemed like last-minute briefs.

Haji has been a constant feature around Raila in recent days. The NIS, which he leads, has handled most of the technical issues regarding the former premier’s campaign. They have provided briefs on which countries seemed more receptive to Raila’s AUC bid and where to push harder.

“I have your back,” Ruto told Raila as they left the Sheraton in Addis, patting the former premier’s back. They were in high spirits. They were hopeful. They were expectant.

The president and his delegation looked confident, but sources indicated that they had been rattled by a letter urging members of the Southern Africa Development Community to vote for Madagascar’s candidate.

So much so that a day before the vote, Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei lamented that Madagascar should not be a part of Eastern Africa, which was to secure the AUC chairperson seat.

“From a technical standpoint, I think, really, Madagascar should not be on the ballot in regards to the Eastern region because if it was the turn of the Southern region, they could still contest. It gives them an unfavourable advantage,” said Sing’oei.

Sing’oei’s remarks were in apparent defiance of a gag order from the AU’s secretariat. Sources told the Standard they had been directed against speaking about the campaign as they risked “jeopardizing Raila’s” bid.

Other remarks from Kenya’s top officials are also believed to have surprised other nations. For instance, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi constantly said the vote should end on Saturday, almost alleging that some nations were hell-bent on frustrating Kenya.

“If we fail to elect a chairperson at this critical juncture, Africa will look weak, confused and indecisive,” Mudavadi said during a meeting of the AU’c Executive Council, which comprises Foreign Affairs ministers.

He was alluding to an apparent plan to deny Kenya the two-thirds majority it would have needed to win the vote, a blunder that showed that Kenya had been over-confident. It seemed that he knew from the start what unfolded Saturday in Addis.

Ahead of the crucial vote, Kenya was at a bad place over the conflict in Eastern Democratic Republic of Conho, amid accusations that Nairobi favoured Rwanda, accused of backing M23 rebels causing Felix Tshisekedi sleepless nights.

Analysts had faulted Kenya’s handling of the recently escalated conflict, which saw the DRC snub a meeting of East African Community heads and attended a joint meeting of the EAC and SADC virtually.

In recent weeks, Ruto admitted to talking to France’s President Emmanuel Macron about the DRC situation, reportedly angering Francophone countries, some of which are eager to cut ties with their colonial masters.

Other sources told The Standard that Ruto had portrayed himself as a puppet of the West, a tag he has carried along throughout his young presidency. Last year, former United States President Joe Biden hosted Ruto on a state visit, the first by an African president in more than a decade.

It was telling that leaders who spoke during Saturday’s AU session hammered the West for perennial injustices against African states and that the AU’s 2025 theme is: Justice for Africans and People of African Descent through Reparations.

Even though it is unclear which nations voted for Raila, it was expected that Kenya’s pro-Israel stance would dent its chances of securing the seat. The AU has consistently backed a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas making a speech at Saturday’s event, earning a standing ovation.

There were whispers in Addis that Raila’s advanced age (80), could have hurt his bid, as well as the perception that Ruto is trying to manage domestic politics by securing Raila a continental job to ease his re-election path.

Many credited the Djiboutian’s victory to his experience in diplomacy and the AU’s affairs, as he has sat in its Executive Council for more than a decade, a competitive advantage against Raila who briefly served as the AU’s High Representative for Infrastructure.

Youssouf has been Djibouti’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation since 2005. He began his diplomatic career at Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Ministry in 1993, serving as Deputy Director of International Organisations, later becoming the Director of the Arab World.

In 1997, he was appointed Djibouti’s Ambassador to Egypt and the Permanent Representative to the League of African States, as well as non-resident Ambassador to Lebanon, Libya, Sudan, Syria and Turkey.

Youssouf was later appointed Minister Delegate for International Cooperation at the Foreign Affairs Ministry, rising to lead the ministry four years later.

His priority areas, which he delivered to Africa’s leaders, include strengthening regional integration and promoting sustainable solutions to economic, security and climate challenges. He is fluent in three official languages of the AU, French, English, and Arabic.

Linguistic differences have previously influenced AU elections, alongside religious ones. Islam is the State religion of Djibouti, the predominant religion of the Horn of Africa nation. Both factors could have played a role in the vote.