Ruto-Raila pact fuels uncertainty ahead of 2027 General Election

Political uncertainty is mounting ahead of Kenya’s 2027 General Election, with concerns growing over the alliance between President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

 Critics argue the pact could stifle opposition, while analysts question whether a third candidate could capitalise on the discontent.

Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka said the next election will be shaped by three categories of aspirants: veteran politicians, those with a track record but relatively new to national leadership, and newcomers with little experience.

“The truth is that many young people want a clean slate to fix the country’s systems. Some say there is no viable option, so they are looking for someone fresh. But does that mean they cannot perform?” said Onyonka.

He warned that the Ruto-Raila partnership weakens government oversight.

“This handshake undermines constitutional structures since there is no real opposition. It allows them to do as they please,” he said.

Political risk analyst Alenga Torosterdt dismissed the idea of a third-force candidate emerging, arguing that other factions lack unity and mobilisation.

“The Ruto-Raila alliance is the most powerful, as Raila’s support base shifts to Ruto by default. Other opposition leaders, including Kalonzo Musyoka and Martha Karua, have failed to organise effectively,” noted Torosterdt.

He also criticised the younger generation’s lack of leadership, stating that their failure to mobilise will hand Ruto an easy re-election.

“For politics, it's all about organisation. Those opposing the government have space to criticise, hold rallies and mobilise at the grassroots, but they are not doing so,” he said.

Dismas Mokua, a political analyst, suggested that former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i is best positioned to benefit from public dissatisfaction with the Ruto-Raila alliance.

 However, he noted that Matiang’i must address reputational concerns linked to past allegations.

“Matiang’i’s candidacy could gain from public resentment toward legacy politicians. He showed capacity for national leadership when President Uhuru Kenyatta entrusted him with key decision-making,” noted Mokua.

Media and political communications researcher Dr Hesbon Owilla criticised the government’s focus on political manoeuvring over governance, warning that voter frustration could drive support for an alternative candidate.

“They have amassed political clout but failed to address the issues that took Kenyans to the streets. If this continues, Kenyans will have every reason to vote them out,” said Owilla.

 While some Kenyans are pushing for fresh leadership, Owilla argued that neither Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua nor Kalonzo Musyoka offers a viable alternative.

“If anything, Gachagua is part of the problem. Any association with him weakens Kalonzo’s chances,” he said.

Although Owilla questioned whether Matiang’i is the best candidate, he acknowledged that he remains a strong option.

“Matiang’i has a distinguished track record. While all politicians have baggage, he is known as a performer,” he said.

Calls for new leadership are growing, with former Chief Justice David Maraga and Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah also emerging as preferred alternatives.

The Ruto-Raila pact has drawn sharp criticism, particularly from Mount Kenya leaders who feel betrayed after Gachagua was sidelined in government.