Matiang'i's 2027 bid threatens Ruto and Raila's grip on Gusii

The entry of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i into the race for presidency in 2027 has opened a new page in the fight to control the rich Gusii vote.

For several years, ODM leader Raila Odinga has enjoyed significant support from the region while President William Ruto has also made significant steps to rally the region to support him.

Observers, however, believe that the entry of Matiang'i into the political powerplay is likely to complicate the situation for the two leaders as the region seeks to chart a new path.

On Friday, Matiangi said he was ready to take up the challenge for the country’s top job after he revealed that he had been persuaded enough by an overwhelming number of people from across the country to come back home from the US where he has been working so that he can be ‘handed the top job.’

And in his maiden return to his Gusii homeyard after three years of absence since he exited public service in August 2022, the region that has for a long time been known as opposition leader Raila Odinga’s stronghold was immersed into campaigns mood as thousands of followers sang his name and at some moments chanting ‘Ruto must go.’

Numerous artists had composed and sung different songs in praise of Matiang'i, with some of them singing how seriously the country needed change.

Nyamira Governor Amos Nyaribo, while addressing a mammoth gathering that had filled Gusii Stadium said no politician has ever pulled such crowd in Gusii like Matiang'i did on that day.

“That was a clear communication from Abagusii who are tired of supporting leaders who don’t help them to overcome their miseries. And now, they want to have their own at the front. As it seems, there could be no retreat to that resolve,” Nyaribo said.

Going by the size of crowds the former powerful CS pulled to his roadside political rallies which he conducted in Kisii and Nyamira Counties during the homecoming cum meet-the-people tour, the Community will be set to consolidate all their votes and political interests behind him.

If Matiang’i’s declaration for presidency will dent the influence of both President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga in Gusii is a subject that political enthusiasts are keenly developing interest in.

The first blow to Raila is losing his deputy party leader, Simba Arati, who has been thrust into Matiang'i's as he welcomed him to Kisii. It, however, remains to be seen if Arati will decamp to Matiang'i's team.

On Friday, Arati was among the several leaders who welcomed Matiangi home. Addressing followers at Gusii Stadium, he advised him to seek endorsement from all other communities.

The development further complicates matters for Raila who was subjected to heckling about two months ago when he visited the region.

For Ruto, some of his allies have now thrown their weight behind Matiang'i.

The two are Joash Nyamoko and UDA Nominated Senator Gloria Orwoba.

Orwoba had vowed at Gusii Stadium that she would lead all women leaders into the Matiang’i camp.

“I am going to lead other women into the Matiangi formation if it means that he is the one who will give us peace, it will be well,” Orwoba said.

It will also mean that Ruto will not be with his 2022 campaigns coordinator in Nyanza, Vincent Kemosi, who says the Gusii Region has to unite politically.

Political enthusiasts have now reconnected the events with the changing political winds in Gusii with Raila having fast lost the huge followership he used to enjoy before he united with President Ruto to form the broad-based government.

The coming together of Raila and Ruto saw the former reward many of his cronies from Central and Southern Nyanza, leaving out even his closest proponents from Gusii.

“People of Gusii have never been happy after Raila chose only his closest allies from Luo Nyanza to join the Ruto Government, leaving aside our own. For instance, former Kitutu Masaba MP Timothy Bosire was supposed to be appointed a Cabinet Secretary but it could not happen. This is not a light matter to us as a community,” Raban Masira, former Nyamira Assembly Majority Leader said.

Kemosi is of the view that Raila and Ruto’s political fortunes are no more in Gusii from the moment Matiangi declared his interest for the presidency.

“We are sure that now we have one of our own, our political voice can be underated. And that is to say, not Raila not Ruto will have any significant claim in Gusii,” Kemosi, who has been one of Kenya Kwanza’s strong men from Nyanza said.

Kemosi cited the 2022 polls where Ruto managed only an average of 35 per cent of Gusii votes, with Raila commanding a huge lead of about 64 per cent.

“With Matiangi on the ballot, we expect Gusii votes to be cast 95 per cent in his favour. And just in case the coalition he is about to be part of settles for another candidate, then the preferred candidate will claim 80 per cent of the votes, meaning there will be no other candidate with a significant stake in the regional votes,” Kemosi said.

Borabu legislator Patrick Osero, on his part, argues that the followership of the principals of the Broad-based government in Gusii is already heavily dented owing to the statement of unity that the leaders from the region exhibited during Matiang’i’s homecoming.

“The huge turnout of people into the stadium and the rallies we held is a clear indicator of the much-needed unity which will be very key for the community going forward,” Osero said.

The MP said the show of unity spells doom for Ruto and Raila.

“Our major problem in the past has been a lack of unity. But once we have united like now, then we have a political voice,” Osero said.

North Mugirango MP Joash Nyamoko, who is also the Chairman of Gusii Parliamentarians' caucus believes unity of members of any community is the start of success in achieving of their interests.

“Sitting at the table of national negotiations is the best thing for any community. This is better achieved when the community votes as a block as well as having their person there,” Nyamoko said.

The MP says if Gusii speaks in one voice in the next general elections, then the grounds will have automatically shifted.

“If we manage to have all our 14 seats in the National Assembly, that will be a big achievement. Then, we will have very huge bargaining power as a community, unlike now when we have to take the short end of the stick of the Kenya Kwanza administration,” Nyamoko said.

However, Kitutu Chache North MP Japhet Nyakundi disagrees with those pushing for a Matiang’i presidency, which he says will show the Gusii community as a tribal outfit, and which will not be reflective of the country’s unity.

“All that we are witnessing is tribal realignment to have a small kingpin. That is not ideal for our country which desires unity and coexistence,” Nyakundi said.

The MP said he will join the Matiang’i team if it expands its call for National unity, but not ‘’tribal unity.”