Ruto travels back to Nyanza on a strategy that won him Mt Kenya

President William Ruto returns to former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s Nyanza backyard today, the fourth official trip in the region since 2022.

Dr Ruto will make a three-day visit to Migori, one of the Nyanza counties that the President hopes to inherit from Raila, in case the latter calls it a day in politics.

He was last in the county last August, when he made a four-day tour of the former Nyanza Province. This latest trip will see Ruto launch road and electric infrastructure projects, as well as commission some affordable housing units, among other State-sponsored programmes.

He has made many more stopovers in the region. Last month, Ruto attended the burial of George Oduor, Raila’s longtime bodyguard, amid a warm reception.

By making repeated trips to the region, the Head of State is adopting a strategy that worked for him in wooing the Mount Kenya region. Nyanza is significant in Ruto’s reelection plans. Mt Kenya is slipping from his grip, and he needs to diversify his votes if he hopes to secure a second term in office.

The current trip comes amid a  split among Raila’s allies about whether to support the President, with the most resistance posed by Governors James Orengo (Siaya) and Anyang’ Nyong’o (Kisumu).

The criticism is not new to Ruto, who surmounted similar resistance from allies of former President Uhuru Kenyatta to secure Mt Kenya. Ahead of the 2022 polls, Ruto camped the most in Mt Kenya, where he would secure the decisive vote that catapulted him to the presidency. He avoided going through Uhuru, who backed Raila’s candidacy.

Ruto had always intended to deploy this strategy in Nyanza. Things would have been easier had Raila won the African Union Commission chairperson position, which would have led the former premier away from local politics.

The plan, sources had told the Sunday Standard ahead of the February vote, was engaging focal persons in the four Luo Nyanza counties of Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay and Migori. Indeed, Ruto seems to have figures in the region championing his cause, sometimes to the chagrin of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) honchos.

In Migori, Ruto has National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed, one of those coordinating the Migori tour, and Uriri MP Mark Nyamita, who has been his solid ally. Nyamita was among seven ODM lawmakers who declared interest in working with Ruto in early 2023 and were deemed rebels.

"In Migori, we have seen the fruits of the visits the President has made to our region, and he is keeping his promises to us," said Nyamita, who said he was "excited" about the visit.

"We are telling the President that when other people are telling you 'Ruto must go,' please go to Migori because we want development. We are firmly behind the President, now and in the next election and even after that, because Ruto values us. He has been in Migori four times. His predecessors, Uhuru Kenyatta and Mwai Kibaki, made two visits in their collective 20-year tenures," he added.

Migori Governor Ochillo Ayacko also supports the “broad-based” arrangement between Ruto and Raila. He recently said he had “great anticipation” to welcome Ruto to his county and urged the public to offer a warm reception.

In Siaya, Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi is a critical point man of Ruto, as has been Alego-Usonga MP Samuel Atandi, who has been consistent in his praise of Ruto. Atandi’s newfound loyalty saw him recently bag the chairmanship of the influential National Assembly’s Budget and Appropriations Committee.

Other supporters of Ruto and his partnership with Raila include Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga (Raila’s brother) and Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo.

Ruto's key figures in Homa Bay include Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo and Governor Gladys Wanga, who dabbles as ODM’s chairperson. Wanga welcomes the thought of supporting Ruto with open arms, amid talk that she could potentially deputise the President in 2027.

Indeed, the Head of State has offered suggestions that he could pick a woman as his running mate in the next polls, which puts Wanga in the picture. But that would depend on whether Ruto would be willing to discard Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, which observers have warned would be akin to completely divorcing Mt Kenya. Okaying former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has caused him more problems than he may have wanted.

Others in Homa Bay are National Treasury Cabinet Secretary, John Mbadi, who recently vowed against betraying the Head of State and Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma, who has all but endorsed the President for a second term.

In Kisumu, the President seems to trust Senator Tom Ojienda, one of the lawmakers considered rebels, who has been an ally since 2023. The Head of State recently rewarded Seme MP James Nyikal with the National Assembly’s Health Committee chairperson position as he woos Kisumu and the larger Nyanza region.

If all goes to plan, Ruto’s focal persons would help him secure Nyanza. But even they know the task is not as easy as it sounds.

"Luo land is Raila's backyard. With Raila's support, Ruto is likely to win. Without it, winning Nyanza would be a tall order," said Dr Timothy Onduru, who teaches history at Moi University. He argued the henchmen would do little to sway the votes "unless Raila okays it."

"But even with Raila's support, several factors will come into play. The arrangement that Ruto takes to the election will determine whether Nyanza backs him. People offer their support, hoping for something in return," he added.

What worked in Mt Kenya, through persons like Gachagua and MPs Kimani Ichung’wah (Kikuyu) and Ndindi Nyoro (Kiharu), among a host of other politicians, may not be possible in Nyanza.

A lot of that owes to the fact that the region has been in Raila’s firm grip. The former premier has blown hot and cold over his partnership with Ruto, which has resulted in divergence on whether or not to back Ruto.

"Raila's mixed signals are confusing to the region," said Ian Horsefield, a lawyer and political commentator. "By making several trips to Nyanza, Ruto is trying to save face and appear popular because he is sure to get a warm reception. At the end of the day, whatever Raila decides will determine how Nyanza will vote. If Raila deserts him, then all of Ruto's efforts in Nyanza will crumble like a house of cards."

However, Horsefield argued that the visits are important in making the President a "familiar face" in case Raila's endorsement comes.

"Right now, the President should make his presence felt in Nyanza so that Raila's endorsement serves a complementary purpose," he said.

Historically, it has mattered little how many allies one can secure from the region. More often than not, such allies, in case they opposed Raila, have ended up losing in the elections.

If the former premier decides against contesting the presidency, Ruto could have a fighting chance in Nyanza. However, he will still need Raila’s endorsement if he is to inherit the four counties that produced 1.5 million votes in the last election.

A Raila candidacy essentially thwarts Ruto’s plans to succeed in Nyanza. The adverse reaction the President got when Raila lost the AUC seat was evidence that the most viable route into Nyanza was through Raila.