Dribbling Raila dishes out hope amid growing discord in ODM

If he is not keeping his allies happy, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is keeping them hopeful. He has mastered this art, critical in the game of politics, which the former premier knows like the back of his hand.

Since he shook President William Ruto’s hand last July, Raila has been playing the very game with his long-time and newfound allies. He was at it again during the burial of Kasipul Member of Parliament Charles Ong’ondo Were on Friday.

On the one hand, he asserted that Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, known for his strong stance against the ‘broad-based’ arrangement, spoke the position of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in his capacity as secretary general, although he urged Sifuna not to be too harsh.

He followed up with assurances that his party was firmly in partnership with Dr Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance and expressed solidarity with allies he had donated to the Kenya Kwanza administration.

“When Sifuna speaks, he speaks on behalf of the party, but don’t be too harsh. We have an arrangement with Kenya Kwanza and put it in black and white, a 10-point agenda and want it to be fully implemented.

Raila’s allies had somewhat provoked his remarks at the event. Sifuna spoke about not being intimidated by those bashing him for his anti-Ruto sentiment. Cabinet Secretaries Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), John Mbadi (National Treasury) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives) had made a passionate appeal for support.

“I expect total support from the part, starting with the Secretary General. My brother Sifuna, I am a member of your party, and I don't belong to any other. If I fail, there's no way you can convince anyone in 2027 that ODM can run a government,” said Mbadi.

Others, like Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, had insisted on defending ODM zones, such as her county, from a United Democratic Alliance incursion. Such were the forces that Raila had to keep happy.

Although absent during the funeral, other players were arguably watching for what the former premier would say about their relationship together. Earlier, Raila had said he brought condolences from Ruto, former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka, implying he maintained significant contact with all of them.

Raila’s remarks during the burial may come off as somewhat contradictory. By endorsing Sifuna’s position, he essentially ruled out a possible coalition between UDA and ODM ahead of the next election.

The Nairobi senator has not filtered his criticism of Ruto’s government. He recently said ODM would work to ensure Ruto is a one-term President.

"ODM exists to fight power in this democratic process. We still intend, and we have not given up on our quest to lead this country. We will be there to face everyone, including even William Ruto… A natural consequence of that is we will make him a one-term president because we want to grab that power from him so that we can do the things we are saying," he said on Citizen TV and doubled down during Were’s funeral.

By later stating that he supported the broad-based arrangement and the allies he seconded to Ruto’s Cabinet, Raila was, undoubtedly, contradicting Sifuna’s anti-government position. To some extent, they support the claim that the Raila-led opposition is firmly in the government, a position the former premier would be quick to refute.

It is easy to see why Raila would want to keep everyone around me happy, or, at the least, hopeful. He has built his ODM party over the last two decades and says he intends to have it outlast him. Keeping the party intact would achieve this.

The opposition veteran also intends to honour his cooperation agreement with Ruto, signed in March. Sticking with Ruto would largely imply that Raila is ready to shelve his presidential ambitions, an eventuality many of the former prime minister’s allies have embraced.

“Raila is sending mixed signals that show that he is in a bad marriage of convenience and must hold up his end of the bargain,” said Ian Horsefield, a lawyer and political commentator.

“It is clear that his heart is in calling out the government, and that is why he is sending the likes of Sifuna to do that job for him. Sifuna cannot speak without Raila’s blessings,” added Horsefield.

Indeed, Sifuna has previously said he had Raila’s go-ahead to speak out against the government’s excesses, authoring stinging statements, many of which have barred party members from singing the President’s praises.

Machakos Deputy Governor said Raila was “playing games” and intended to enjoy the perks of being in the government and the opposition.

“He wants to retain the minority seats in Parliament, which he should have relinquished to Wiper. These are the games he played when reconstituting the electoral commission with Ruto, without the input of other players. He could also be playing Ruto and could jump ship if the opposition picks up momentum,” said Mwangangi.

Macharia Munene, a professor of history and international relations, argued  Raila’s mixed signals were borne from desperation.

“He is desperate as he seems to lack the undulation he used to enjoy. The strong following he enjoyed has deserted him because he appears to be wavering on different subjects,” said Prof Munene.

“Raila has been known to challenge sitting governments but has turned back with Ruto, making him unpopular with the people. That is why Raila has to go back and say he is not with Ruto – that he is only helping him,” he added.

Prof Munene argued that Ruto and Raila are united by their shared dislike for former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and may have rekindled the spark that brought them together into the ODM Pentagon of 2007.

Then there is Kalonzo and the Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya coalition party. The former vice president has hesitated to counter Raila head-on, perhaps in the hope that their paths would once again cross. Raila, too, has decided against burning the bridges linking him to Kalonzo.

“From where we sit, we know Raila left when he signed the deal with Ruto. But we have a history with him that we cannot wish away,” said Mwangangi.

Prof Munene argued that the Wiper leader needs to explore other options as Raila seems too slippery.

“Kalonzo needs to wake up. I think Raila will be a candidate. ODM has clearly said it will field a presidential candidate, who can only be Raila. Kalonzo is getting an assembly of allies, but he needs to be more assertive and appear as the leader,” he said.