Why tribal affiliations are likely to define 2027 elections, yet again

As the clock ticks towards the 2027 General Elections, regional kingpins are already stoking the fires of ethnic loyalties to rally their constituents.

In recent times, politicians have been meeting in hotels and private residences to plan before presenting themselves to the media to urge their communities to await political guidance.

President William Ruto has expressed commitment to ending “ethnic politics,” which he claims has excluded many Kenyans from national leadership.

During his recent development tour of the Mt Kenya and Nyanza regions, the President, who orchestrated the removal of his deputy in October last year for allegedly promoting tribalism, emphasized his desire to eliminate tribal politics.

But while Dr Ruto spoke out against tribalism, some of his close allies, including politicians and Cabinet Secretaries, seemed to follow a different agenda.

Many of them have sought refuge in their tribal conclaves, working to solidify their communities ahead of the upcoming elections.

Political observers believe that the country is entering a season of deal-making and horse-trading among the political elite, who utilize their ethnic support as bargaining chips.

In a landscape where political leaders often lack broad national support, they rally their ethnic groups to consolidate their numbers for negotiations regarding political positions in government with elites from other communities.

Analysts argue that the absence of viable political parties with well-developed structures and support bases across the country has led to the current situation, where ethnicity has become a major factor in political mobilization.

Regional kingpins and tribal leaders ultimately balkanize the nation into ethnic enclaves, igniting passions and hostility against perceived opponents.

This balkanization along ethnic lines undermines national cohesion and integration, often placing the country on edge during each electoral cycle.

Political analyst Andrew Nyabuto points out that the radicalisation of the youth and the ethnicized campaign  in Mt Kenya region being perpetrated by the impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua against President William Ruto regime was a perfect example of how political elites are using their tribes to build their political basis.

Nyabuto adds that coalitions based on tribal conglomerations whose aim was to attain political power were susceptible to conflicts as some key leaders in the formations develop egos that they brought in more numbers than others.

“This is what we witnessed between President Ruto and Gachagua where the former DP kept reminding the President that his Mt Kenya backyard brought in 47 per cent of votes and demanded for more slots in the government,” Nyabuto added.

Nyabuto argues that even before he launched his party, Gachagua had managed to raise the expectations of his supporters in Mt Kenya region where he has pledged to show them the political direction.

“Mt Kenya people who had been whipped through ethnicity were saying they are in Wamunyoro party yet no political party had been formed and they did not even know of its agenda and manifesto,” Nyabuto added.

Gachagua has since launched his Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) and unveiled interim officials. 

The former Deputy President has been receiving delegations of politicians and community leaders from the grassroots level from across regions occupied by the Mt Kenya communities at his Wamunyoro home in Mathira, Nyeri County as he strives to consolidate his position as the regional kingpin and spokesperson.

Nyabuto argues that other opposition leaders, including Kalonzo Musyoka of the Wiper Democratic Party, had also retreated to their ethnic backyards where they have been consolidating their support in readiness for negotiation for power with their colleagues.

Kalonzo, who is a former Vice-President, is currently perceived as the undisputed Kamba community leader, with the community members demanding that he should be named the joint opposition presidential flag bearer come 2027.

Another leader running a regional-based political outfit is former Defence Minister Eugene Wamalwa, whose support base is Trans Nzoia and Bungoma, where he traces his roots amongst the Bukusu Community.

There is also the sacked Public Service Cabinet Secretary and a former Attorney General and Speaker of the National Assembly Justin Muturi, who is repackaging himself as the leader of the Mbere community in Embu County where he hails from, and by extension the leader of the Mt Kenya East region.

The incumbent Health Cabinet Secretary Adaen Duale has fashioned himself as the kingpin of the Somali community, covering mainly the three counties of Mandera, Garissa and Wajir, with pockets of the community members spread across major urban centres in the country, with Nairobi’s Eastleigh area being the community’s major business hub.

Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i recently held a whirlwind tour of the two Abagusii-dominated counties of Kisii and Nyamira where leaders endorsed himself as their community choice for presidential candidate before holding a meeting with the other opposition leaders in Nairobi.

Former Ndaragwa MP Mwangi Gichuki says that given the country’s political set-up and orientation where ethnicity is used as the main tool of political mobilization, it will be difficult for the country to evolve as a cohesive social unit with a shared sense of common purpose and nationhood among the citizenry.

Gichuki says the political pact between President Ruto and Gachagua in the run-up to the last general election was “in essence an alliance between two ethnic communities, namely the Kikuyus and the Kalenjins rather than an alliance based on sound political ideology and well developed programmes for the country’s socio-economic and political transformation.”

The former lawmaker said the country was yet to nurture and developed political parties that could survive independent of the regional or ethnic chieftains who are normally their founders and funders.

“In a situation where parties are owned by individuals, it is obvious that the outfits are turned into special purpose vehicles for the tribal chiefs to negotiate amongst themselves for political deals and for privileges that accrues with power,” Gichuki added.

Veteran politician and former Molo MP Njenga Mungai says the ethnicisation of the country’s politics by key regional and ethnic leaders had continued to undermine the country’s stability and social harmony every electoral cycle.

“The regional kingpins’ specialization is in inciting their communities against sections of leaders from other communities with whom they do not agree. We have a case in point where leaders in Mt Kenya region have resorted to personalized attacks on the President instead of offering constructive criticism on the shortcoming of his government following his fall out with Gachagua,” Mungai said.

Harold Kipchumba, a former ODM nominated senator, says the country lacked leaders who were genuinely committed to advance the interests of Kenyans in general. The leaders the country has, he says, have their main interest as pursuit of power and other personal interests.

Kipchumba says the majority of leaders in the country, though purporting to be national leaders, had not demonstrated willingness to sell their agenda to Kenyans outside their regions and that is why they mobilize themselves for horse trading as election approaches.

“The political coalitions are in essence coalitions between key regional leaders and have nothing to do with political parties per se,” Kichumba said.