Thorns in the flesh: Multiple forces fighting Ruto's re-election bid

When his allies impeached former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, President William Ruto knew the kind of foe that single move would earn him.

He had witnessed firsthand how bare-knuckled Gachagua went against those he did not like. Indeed, the former DP had publicly berated former President Uhuru Kenyatta, a man who gave him a job as his personal assistant.

Dr Ruto’s former deputy has not disappointed.

Gachagua has emerged as a thorn in Ruto’s flesh. Since his impeachment last October, Gachagua has kept the Head of State busy. He counters the President on corruption in the government and rights abuses. In different media interviews, he emerges with a fresh claim involving Ruto.

Gachagua is the de facto leader of what has come to be known as the WanTam movement on social media. WanTam is a corruption of ‘one term’, an assertion by Gachagua that Ruto will only serve a presidential single term. He says his most urgent assignment is ensuring Ruto’s defeat in 2027.

The counter by Ruto’s allies is “TuTam” and “Kumi bila break” – refrains that assert that the Head of State will be at the helm until 2032.

Doubtless, Gachagua has gotten into Ruto’s head, and he knows it.

Courtesy of his vocal criticism of Ruto, the former DP attracts constant attacks from the Head of State and his allies, who still frame him as a tribal bigot.

“Ruto made Gachagua a big threat, alongside Justin Muturi. Whenever they speak, they share insider information,”,” said Macharia Munene, a professor of history and international relations.

Gachagua, who intends to ring-fence the Mt Kenya voting bloc comprising former Central Province counties and Nakuru and Laikipia, which contributed 3.8 million votes in the 2022 polls, is a potential threat to Ruto’s re-election bid.

The President got most of his votes from Mt Kenya, and his second bid could suffer a serious dent if he is to lose Mt Kenya completely.

“A person who could not marshal 14 senators to save him from impeachment cannot marshal millions of Kenyans,” Ruto said recently when he met Ukambani politicians at the State House in Nairobi, a statement aimed at dismissing his former deputy’s influence.

In Homa Bay on Thursday, Ruto said  he would trounce the opposition. He is banking on former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s support, which has been on full display in the President’s current tour of Nyanza.

Gachagua is not alone in the push to make Ruto serve a single term. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, too, finds the idea enticing. Together, they hope to forge a coalition that will marshal maximum votes from their respective backyards.

They promise to field a single candidate to challenge Ruto. The wide perception has always been that Kalonzo is the frontrunner.

“In terms of winning the election, Kalonzo stands out as the main person, but he will need the support of people who can mobilise better like Gachagua, George Natembeya and Richard Onyonka,” said Prof Munene.

When Ruto won Raila over last July, he hoped Raila would bring other figures in the Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya coalition party.

Kalonzo had other plans. As soon as the former Vice President witnessed the signing into law of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (Amendment) Act, 2024, he would return to criticising Ruto.

At the time, the President was smarting from a youth-led revolt that had brought his government to its knees. Ruto faced growing public dissent, with many young Kenyans shunning calls for dialogue, driven mainly by the Head of State and Raila.

Months later, in March, Kalonzo would term Ruto and Raila’s coalition agreement a betrayal of Kenyans and vowed to keep the opposition’s fire burning. Indeed, he has kept the pressure high on Ruto, recently saying: “We are taking over this government very early because we have Kenyans behind us.”

“It is unimaginable for me to work in this government. I do not want to discuss anything with the Head of State. I respect him, and I will continue in my role as official opposition now that ODM (Orange Democratic Movement) has joined the UDA (United Democratic Alliance) government,” he stated in response to claims by Ruto that the Wiper leader had rejected the President’s overtures.

Kalonzo is the most influential politician in Ukambani, which produced one million votes in the last elections.

 “Ruto is his own enemy, courtesy of his endless lies,” said Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi, a Kalonzo ally, adding:

“No one speaks about corruption, yet it is the biggest challenge eating Kenya up. Ruto is also borrowing the country broke. His policies are not working, and many Kenyans feel disenfranchised.”

In Western Kenya, Natembeya’s influence is growing. Since he was elected Trans Nzoia’s governor, Natembeya has led a push to deflate the influence of the region’s veteran politicians, whom he has accused of only pursuing selfish interests.

He has claimed that there is nothing to show for the many decades that the region’s senior-most politicians have been in the government.

Not everyone likes his messaging, evidenced by the fact that several of his meetings have been disrupted. Critics argue that he has shown disrespect to others, like Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula.

Natembeya has also called out Ruto’s administration over failures in the health sector and corruption, and rights abuses. He was dramatically arrested days ago over corruption-related charges, in what his allies see as political persecution.

Natembeya’s arrest came days after Mumias Member of Parliament Peter Salasya, another vocal critic of Ruto, was arrested over alleged incitement.

Watching Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna introduce an MoU between the ruling party and Raila’s outfit in March, Ruto must have breathed a sigh of relief and possibly thought that the senator would go easy on him.

The ODM secretary general, who has Raila’s ear, has done the opposite. He consistently bashes the President, buying into the ‘one term’ messaging. He has been persistent enough to get into Ruto’s skin, with the Head of State last month warning him to tread carefully or risk “disciplining”.

Sifuna has withstood pressure from those within his party who wholeheartedly support the “broad-based” government. Last week, he called out the government over allegedly spying on critics.

“Instead of fixing the people’s problems, Ruto thinks AI will help him win back popular support by tracking my online activity and sending me bots to harass me. It isn’t me who gave the KK (Kenya Kwanza) government a bad name. They did it themselves,” Sifuna posted on his social media handles.

Ruto also faces resistance from Siaya Governor James Orengo, whose criticism of the government has earned him threats of impeachment.

His gripe with opposition politicians backing the “broad based” coalition is that they celebrate development projects as rewards when they are guaranteed to them by the Constitution.

Other politicians who have vocally criticised Ruto include Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Saboti’s Caleb Amisi, among others.

Then there is the unlikely opposition fronted by social media. For months now, Ruto has struggled to find a formula to endear himself to Kenya’s youth, who, mid-last year, led a revolt that exposed the government’s weaknesses.

The youth are, undoubtedly, the President’s most formidable opposition. Courtesy of their numbers, they can tilt a presidential election.

The civil society has also kept the pressure high, swiftly calling out rights abuses, and keeping a tally of their comrades killed in the trenches by State agents and those who have been forced to vanish.