Did Ruto err by ousting Gachagua too soon?

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has become a thorn in the flesh of President William Ruto’s government after he orchestrated his sacking by Parliament through impeachment last year.

Was Gachagua’s ouster in October last year a big blunder? Was the timing of that decision right given that former presidents left it until late in their second terms to openly differ with their deputies?

It is clearly evident that the impeachment resulted into a major standoff and a more rejuvenated opposition against Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza administration that took power in September 2022.

Some analysts also think it was not strategic for Ruto to sack his deputy when the political environment was against him because of the Gen Z protests, extra judicial killings and abductions that were taking place in the country.

And following the fallout between the two, a highly charged political environment emerged and provided an opportunity for the Opposition to unite, mobilise and rally supporters against the government.

Nascent administration

On the flipside, it also accorded the President room to do away with what he described as toxicity that Gachagua had created in his nascent administration and to re-organise the government.

However, the President and his allies appeared to have underestimated the impact his former deputy would make while outside government. The anxiety surrounding the President has now forced him to engage in premature re-election campaigning and loosely defined pre-election pacts.

Political analysts think Gachagua’s departure could cost Ruto substantial support, especially in the Mt Kenya region, but it was a risk worth taking because it now offers him the opportunity of rebuilding the support without internal distraction. “Ruto and Gachagua are still sizing each other but ultimately Gachagua will have a role in the post-election dispensation because by the look of things Ruto won’t be able to perform as he did in 2022, when he based his campaign on the hustler agenda,” says political scientist Amukowa Anangwe.

He argues that Gachagua’s departure offered Ruto the opportunity of re-organising himself early to develop a workable formulae and to also find the best way forward.

Prof Anangwe, however, foresees a tight race in the 2027 presidential elections because of Gachagua’s politics. From his analysis there could emerge a post-election coalition, that may see the two adversaries working together again because nothing is ruled out in politics.

Political kingpin

And so whereas it could be a boon in disguise for Ruto to recreate another winning team, it has also offered Gachagua the opportunity of becoming a political kingpin whose influence and power cannot be taken for granted by both sides of the political divide.

“Ruto is juggling around to find workable formulae which he is yet to get but my guess is that he will manage to muddle through and win with or without Raila Odinga’s support. It is going to be a very untidy scramble like a goalmouth melee in a game of soccer,” says Anangwe.

Anangwe, an ex-minister in President Daniel arap Moi’s Cabinet further argues that a political dispensation will most likely emerge, where both Gachagua and Raila will have a role, even if the latter chooses not to run.

He also thinks it will not be plain sailing for Gachagua in the Opposition, whether he plays the role of kingmaker or decides to run for presidency himself, because of the expectations and presidential ambitions that key leaders in the group are having.

“They are behaving like many bulls in a homestead where each wants to be the most dominant. Apart from Gachagua, they do not have backing with serious numbers to create a sleepless night for Ruto, who now could try to divide and rule,” he added.

He singles out Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka as the most difficult person to deal with, pointing at his obstinacy over the years from 1997 when he was in ODM to 2022 when he reluctantly joined Azimio One Kenya alliance at the last minute after refusing to leave Okoa One Kenya Alliance.

In 1997, Kalonzo ignited a split of ODM-Kenya into two factions after he refused to unite with Raila to support one presidential candidate, forcing the latter to register ODM. They thereafter both ran for president and lost to former President Mwai Kibaki.

And in 2022, he again insisted on being on the presidential ballot paper as other Opposition leaders moved to Azimio la Umoja coalition and only joined at the last minute after Raila promised to appoint him Chief Minister had he won the elections.

Gachagua and Kalonzo now claim they are currently working towards creating a united Opposition but Anangwe thinks it is all underpinned by a siege mentality to the extent that none of them can singly face Ruto who also has the ability of either crippling or inducing them financially.

Anangwe further argues that Gachagua may also find himself in a quagmire should the Opposition fall in similar ideological challenges to the ones the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) faced after they supported Kibaki to win the 2002 presidential elections. The powerful party backed by all Opposition leaders defeated Kanu to end its long grip on power but only lasted for three years from 2002 to 2005, when it collapsed because of a serious power struggle between Kibaki and Raila.

“The fact that they want to form a grand coalition can be positive. Danger is that once the elections are over forming, managing and sustaining control of power tends to be very problematic,” says Anangwe.

Gachagua has so far cultivated the theory of “cousins” described by the opposite camp as tribal and divisive but sources within the Ruto-Raila circles suggest they are working on beating Gachagua at his own game by recreating the 2007 ODM Pentagon campaign model.

That is another emerging challenge that Ruto never anticipated which may also force him to use a similar counter-strategy to deal with, which is not his modus operandi, following the 2022 issue based elections campaign.

Gachagua is also raising complains over the alleged exclusion of Mt Kenya in decision-making, the neglect of the ordinary hustler and a presidency increasingly deaf to dissent.

His allies

The Ruto-Raila idea of reviving the 2007 ODM Pentagon which brought together political kingpins to campaign against Kibaki’s Party of National Unity coalition as a strategy of dealing with Gachagua and his allies may not work.

Anangwe does not see how the pentagon formulae can work for Ruto in the current dispensation when opposition to Kenya Kwanza is cutting across ethnic blocks and people are pro and anti-government in equal measure.

In the Pentagon, Raila brought together regional kingpins William Ruto (Rift Valley), Najib Balala (Coast), Musalia Mudavadi (Western), Joe Nyagah (Mt Kenya) and Charity Ngilu (Eastern) in what amounted to ethnic mobilization of those regions against President Kibaki, whose allies were Uhuru Kenyatta and Martha Karua (Mt Kenya).

New Pentagon

Gachagua (Mt Kenya) has managed to assemble Kalonzo (Eastern), Eugene Wamalwa, George Natembeya and Mukhisa Kituyi (Western), Martha Karua and Justin Muturi (Mt Kenya) and Fred Matiang’i (Kisii) in a similar arrangement.

Names touted for the new Pentagon include Ruto (Rift Valley), Raila (Nyanza), Musalia and Moses Wetangula (Western), Kimani Ichungwa and Kabogo (Mt Kenya), Aden Duale (Mt Kenya) and Hassan Joho and Amason Kingi (Coast).

Anangwe, however, thinks Ruto will frown at that kind of strategy because he believes in taking charge and being the focal point of a national campaign himself or as the commander in apolitical field.

“It will not work because he will want to build on what he did in 2022 by convincing Kenyans across ethnic lines to vote for him even though it is going to be a very difficult task but he will muddle through it,” says Anangwe.

Fellow analyst Prof Gitile Naituli, however, thinks Gachagua was right in seizing the opportunity early to make strong gains.

“Much has been said about Gachagua’s recent political awakening. Pundits are falling over themselves trying to explain why now and why he didn’t speak up earlier, why he tolerated what he now condemns, and why we should believe a man who sat silently in the corridors of power until the tides turned,” says Naituli.