By-elections a big test for unity as UDA, ODM allies fight rifts within

As the country heads toward the November 27, 2025, by-elections, the contests are shaping into a litmus test for the broad-based government and opposition forces — a rehearsal that could define alliances before the 2027 General Election.

In Western Kenya, the Malava parliamentary by-election has become a headache for President William Ruto’s UDA. Despite attempts at consensus, the party remains divided over who should fly its flag.

On Monday, President Ruto held a 15-minute meeting at State House with the four aspirants, lawyer Leonard Shimaka, former principal Simon Kangwana, Ryan Malulu (son of the late MP Malulu Injendi) and West Kabras MCA David Ndakwa. The meeting was meant to secure consensus but it collapsed.

“The President was upset to realise we had not agreed,” said one aspirant. “He warned us that ego fights have cost parties by-elections before.” Days later, COTU Secretary-General Francis Atwoli hosted the aspirants at his Khwisero home in a bid to unite them. That meeting too ended in disarray.

“Our aspirants were called by Atwoli to avoid divisions,” said an ally of one contender. “But none agreed to step down, even though money was offered to help fund campaigns.”

On Saturday, UDA’s primaries were marred by claims of voter bribery, low turnout, late opening of polling stations, and electronic system failures. Malulu accused allies of Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi of bribing voters to favour Ndakwa. “We have evidence of bribery and one of my supporters was attacked,” Malulu alleged. He warned that UDA risked further division unless the nominations were free and credible.

ODM, which is working with UDA in the broad-based government, has avoided Malava, instead fielding Thomas Oyolo in Kisa East ward, Khwisero.But the Movement for Democracy and Growth (MDG) of Ugenya MP David Ochieng has fielded Joel Ongoro, setting up infighting within the coalition. The Malava poll also highlights cracks within the opposition. DAP-K and Rigathi Gachagua’s DCP are clashing over who should front a candidate.

DAP-K has put forward Seth Panyako, while DCP insists on Edgar Busiega. Panyako accused Gachagua of disrespecting Western leaders, contrasting his treatment with Central Kenya’s Justin Muturi.

“We have long been despised and disregarded,” said Panyako. “If Gachagua won’t respect us, we’ll campaign against DCP in Western.”

He even threatened to team up with UDA to isolate DCP: “I will win this seat regardless of Malala’s tricks. After Gachagua, we are coming for Wetangula, Mudavadi and Oparanya.

”Businessman Wilberforce Tuvei of the Kenya Moja Movement and Joab Manyasi of the Democratic National Alliance are also in the race, making Malava a crowded contest.

In Bungoma, Ford-Kenya leader Moses Wetangula faces rebellion from Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga over the Kabuchai/Chwele ward by-election. The rift began after Kalasinga opposed the 2024 Finance Bill while Wetangula supported it. Matters worsened when Kalasinga claimed Wetangula imposed a candidate without consulting him.

Now Wetangula backs Vincent Maunda, an officer in the Industrialisation PS’s office, while Kalasinga supports independent Eric Wekesa. This split in Wetangula’s backyard threatens to embarrass Ford-Kenya and fracture the ruling coalition.

In Nyanza, Raila Odinga’s ODM faces threats from splinter parties and disgruntled allies. The Kenya Moja Movement, led by former Mathare MP Steve Kariuki, is gaining ground. The party will hold nominations on September 26 to pick a candidate for Ugunja Constituency, left vacant by Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi.

Kenya Moja has fronted Vincent Olengo, a 26-year-old journalist who gained prominence during the 2024 Gen Z protests. He quit ODM, claiming the party rigged its primaries.

The Jubilee Party has fielded Wickliffe Wendo, while ODM faces five internal aspirants for the Kasipul seat alongside two independents. These by-elections reveal deep fissures in both the ruling coalition and the opposition. In Malava, infighting within UDA and its allies risks ceding ground to rivals. In Bungoma, Ford-Kenya’s split could weaken Wetangula’s grip. And in Nyanza, ODM is under pressure from emerging parties and defectors.

The November 27 mini-polls are not just about filling vacancies. They are a dress rehearsal for 2027, testing whether political alliances built on convenience can withstand local rivalries, personal ambitions, and ethnic loyalties.

Kenya’s political history shows how by-elections can reshape national politics. If the broad-based coalition continues to fracture under the weight of competing interests, it could hand the opposition or splinter groups an unexpected advantage as the country edges closer to the next general election.

-Reports by Benard Lusigi, Mary Imenza and Clinton Ambunjo