Why Raila could be playing Ruto

ODM leader Raila Odinga is living up to his moniker, the enigma, a title bestowed to him by Nigerian author Babafemi  Badejo. In his seminal biography, Raila Odinga: An Enigma in Kenyan Politics, Badejo writes about how Raila has been misunderstood.

In his latest pronouncements, the former Prime Minister has caught his followers off guard, blindsiding his allies in the United Democratic Alliance and President William Ruto, while the opposition is reeling in confusion.

Supporters and opponents wait with bated breath for the next signal from the former prime minister, who is defending the government and has an Memorandum of Understanding with the ruling coalition but has recently forbidden his party from committing to supporting Ruto in 2027.   

His shifting stance on whether he will vie the Presidency or support President William Ruto’s re-election has left his supporters and allies confused.

In the recent past, Raila has assured Ruto that the pact between ODM and UDA would stretch beyond 2027, but with the same breath retreated to a familiar tone of defiance, suggesting that he may once again be on the ballot.

Raila’s constant flip-flopping is not only fueling confusion among his loyal base but is also raising questions about his true intentions. Some see this as a calculated strategy while others view it as indecision that risks eroding his political capital and destroying what was perceived as the strongest and vibrant party.

On Monday during the ODM’s Parliamentary Group, Raila hinted that the party may field a presidential candidate in 2027, a departure from his remarks on August 8 where he assured Ruto their pact would go beyond 2027.

But even as Raila cautioned the ODM members to exercise restraint when speaking on the future of the party, he also defended President Ruto’s controversial policies, such as the scrapped Adani-JKIA deal and the privatisation of Kenya Pipeline.

“Stand for what is right for the party, and look at what you have signed and remain as an ardent member. We have signed that we will work together up to 2027, but have not passed any resolution as a party to say how we are going into the elections of 2027,” Raila said.

On ODM fielding a Presidential candidate, Raila said, “Who told you that ODM doesn’t have a candidate in 2027? We have a clear plan we are implementing.”

While Raila has in the past maintained ODM party was not in the government, he maintained during the PG that his arrangement, which was formalised after the Memorandum of Understanding, had brought political stability and prevented the kind of confrontations that plunged the country into crisis in the past.

The memorandum of understanding that Raila alluded to agree on the following full implementation of National Dialogue Committee  Report (Nadco), Inclusivity to all spheres of life, Protecting and strengthening devolution, promoting and protecting the livelihoods of young people. The MOU also talked of  Leadership and integrity, Right to peaceful assembly and protest and compensation of all pending victims, auditing national debt, Fight against corruption, Stopping wastage of public resources, protecting sovereignty of the people and the rule of law and constitutionalism.

Opposition within

Hoever, despite Raila’s insistence that the pact had worked, a section of the ODM leaders, opposed to the broad-based arrangement led by the party’s Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, maintain the government had failed to implement the 10-point agenda and hence the agreement was dead.

Sifuna and other ODM rebels, who include Caleb Amisi (Saboti), Bbau Owino (Embakasi East), among others, have threatened to lead a mass walkout from the party if it resolves to support Ruto’s re-election bid.

“I will read all the resolutions that are made by organs of the ODM party except one; the day they will resolve that they will support Ruto in 2027 I will not read it,” Sifuna said last month.

Political analysts, ODM leaders, the Opposition and pro-government leaders have aired their varied interpretations of Raila’s ever-changing stance. His critics say he may be reacting to the change of dynamics of the political situation and mood in the country while those who support him maintain there was no contradiction on his statements.

National Assembly Minority leader Junet Mohammed, who has been a strong proponent of Ruto’s re-election bid, defended Raila maintaining he was clear on the future of the ODM party.

“All political relationships have a lifespan of five years. You either renew at the next election or you move on. He has also confirmed that we are firmly in the broad based arrangements until 2027,” he said.

Joshua Nyamori, a political strategist affiliated with the government, said Raila’s remarks pointed to a structured space of engagement, collaboration, and inclusivity, noting he did not find any contradictions in his remarks.

“When leaders talk about 2027, they are reflecting legitimate aspirations within their parties and constituencies. That does not diminish the fact that we are working together today in building a government of national unity that addresses the urgent needs of Kenyans. The broad-based partnership is about strengthening trust, delivering development, and ensuring every Kenyan feels represented. Political competition will always be there, but it does not cancel out cooperation. In fact, it shows that our democracy is strong enough to accommodate both,” he said.

According to Nyamori, there were signs that the Ruto-Raila pact would point to parties working together in the next elections saying cooperation had proven more beneficial to the country than division.

However, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka said Raila’s ever changing pronouncements on the position of ODM and the 2027 elections had negatively impacted the party and its ideologies and that it had lost its focus on standing for devolution, fight against corruption and social justice.

“Nobody in ODM has the capacity to influence Ruto to change his policies to be good so that they can be beneficial to Kenyans. The extrajudicial killings, police brutality and fight against corruption has always been our driving force but since the ODM party supported Ruto regime, it compromised our position, it has led to some of us losing the passion and the enthusiasm that we had for our party,” Onyonka said.

Contradictions

He said with Raila’s contradictions, ODM members and allies were not sure of the future of the party, a move he claimed had led to the party being unpopular to the country.

Former Attorney General Justin Muturi has dismissed Raila’s support for the current regime, saying he is instilling fear in Kenyans through his remarks that it was better to have a bad government than none to all.

“It is a false choice, a manipulative framing designed to delegitimise any serious conversation about accountability, reform, and the rejection of rotten leadership,” Muturi said.

However, Nandi Senator Samson Cherakey was upbeat that the Ruto-Raila pact would culminate into a political vehicle in 2027.

“People should not read too much into what Raila said in the ODM Parliamentary Group meeting because the UDA-ODM joint Partnership is working perfectly beyond 2027. In any case Ruto is a former ODM member. The only person happy about this statement is Sifuna yet he is the one who signed and Presided over the joint UDA-ODM joint working partnership!

On his part, Embakasi North MP James Gakuya said Raila’s remarks described his trade of politics where he connives with unpopular administrations to get to power through the back door and when elections near, he betrays them and depict himself as people’s representative.

Gakuya maintained that Raila was only welcome in the Opposition if he would back any leader and not to issue demands to be supported for the top seat.

“Raila’s door to join the opposition has been closed. He dented himself. He can’t always be using others; he used Kalonzo three times, and there is not a day he allowed Kalonzo to take the mantle. In case he wants to terminate the marriage within Kenya Kwanza, he can only come to support not to demand,” said Gakuya.

As other political parties prepare for the 2027 general elections, ODM aspirants are unsure whether to package their messages as allies or adversaries of the government and how to relate with other competitors who may form UDA.

This may also lead to mistrust between the ODM and the government as leaders from both factions will not have a clear view of how to treat each other whether friends or enemies.