Matiang'i factor as Uhuru enters the fray ahead of 2027 elections

Before his elevation to the Cabinet by former President Uhuru Kenyatta, Dr Fred Okengo Matiang’i was relatively unknown outside the University of Nairobi.

But within no time, the former UoN lecturer made a name for himself, navigating critical dockets, which earned him praise and criticism in equal measure.

From the media digital migration, Matiang’i oversaw the switching off of non-compliant media stations, sparking hue and cry. In the education docket, he made waves by eradicating what he termed as ‘decades of exam irregularities that needed to be changed once and for all’.

He also served in the Interior docket and it never occurred that he would dabble in politics. At the height of Gen Z protests last year, his name unexpectedly came up as a probable candidate in the next elections. After a studious silence, he began embracing the idea.

Within no time, he started warming up to politics of the day and eventually resigned from his job abroad.

And as he gets into politics, Matiang’i has been categorical that managing the country is serious business and there is no room for complacency. “I am seeking leadership because I know that as a country, we can do better than this. We are united in our patriotic duty to liberate our nation. We shall get this nation back on track together,” Matiang’i has previously stated.

It is however, his engagement with Jubilee last week that has left bitter-sweet taste in the mouths of politicians. Political analyst Masibo Lumula believes that by the time Matiang’i was coming back to the country, almost everyone thought he would be the best candidate and some people even anticipated he would be a Gen Z candidate.

“I think having come back and dust settled, I wouldn’t want to say this, but really I do not see him being that forceful candidate that he originally looked like. Running as a presidential candidate now looks a bit too meek and then Kenyan politics is full of so many other factors that come to play, never always that the best candidate win the elections,” he told The Standard on Wednesday.

Despite Uhuru’s backing, Lumula said questions arise on whether Matiang’i will marshal all the support he needs, especially from areas like Mt Kenya, because there is also former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

Again, Lumula said in Nyanza there is the ODM factor and the fact that he comes from the Kisii community, he would obviously need support from Nyamira and Kisii but he has not been to Siaya, Migori, Homa Bay and Rift Valley. 

“Jubilee comes with structures and funding. Setting your own party means you really must have your own money. And I think we don’t need more political parties in this country, we already have too many. Do we really need another party with Matiang’i? the answer is not,” he argued.

According to Lumula, it could be too early but there is need to see more of Matiang’i. The person he was when he was Minister for Education and Interior, respectively.

Die is cast

“For now, the die is cast and it would be interesting and important he remains with Jubilee and ride on its structures because its not like he has not been a member. Let him go ahead with Jubilee and now take the leadership mantle,” he added.

But public policy analyst, Kimani Mwangi said Matiang’i’s candidature could be ‘formidable in many ways’ saying it represents a shift from politics of identity to politics of ideology.

“His firm and no-nonsense mien in execution of his duties earned himself immense goodwill from Kenyans of all walks of life, who consider him as the most suited presidential candidate to change the fortunes of this country,” Mwangi said.

He said Matiang’i enjoys the support of Uhuru and part of his vote rich Mt Kenya region, with the former President apparently going a step further by bequeathing the leadership of his Jubilee party to the former CS and a promise to support and fund his presidential campaigns.

“This makes Matiang’i candidature one that cannot be underrated. In the past, the politics of tribe played a major role in the elections of presidential candidates, and only candidates from major tribes faired well in the elections. With Matiang’i, coming from a relatively small tribe, his candidature gives hope to small tribes in Kenya, emboldening ambitious political leaders from these tribes to dream big,” opined Mwangi.

He adds: “Jubilee is a party with millions of members and running structures, and one that managed 28 elected members, even against such assault as the one presented by UDA in its strongholds.”

At the same time, leadership analyst Prof Gitile Naituli said every electoral cycle brings a fresh wave of political gossip, whispered feuds, and manufactured rivalries and the latest one, now gaining currency, is the claim of a political fallout between Uhuru Kenyatta and Gachagua, courtesy of Matiang’i.

Consolidate position

But he says Matiang’i is being misadvised by some people who do not understand the Kenyan politics. “I was once told that you must have your community support before any other Kenyans can take you seriously. So Matiangi to be advised to go and get Mt Kenya, that was not a good advice. He needed to consolidate his position in Kisii and Nyamira first. Then he can come to the mountain. The mountain may support him. But coming to the mountain directly after Ruto, they are very careful now,” Naituli said.

He, however, says, Matiang’i is still a viable candidate and can be a competitive presidential candidate. “Unfortunately, he has to know that politics are tribal and the people want a candidate’s tribe’s support 100 per cent before they can trust you with their vote. He needs to demonstrate that he has support from there so these people are advising him to start with Mt Kenya are misleading him,” Naituli explained.

He was of the opinion that the Jubilee idea could be a ‘very tricky’ thing because the party’s story is not as good given the baggage of its reign  now being compared to United Democratic Alliance today.