Matiang'i's bid tests politics without tribal party footing

Fred Matiang’i, who has recently transitioned from being a relatively unknown university lecturer to a powerful Cabinet Secretary, is now preparing to contest for the presidency.

Political observers note that his path to the top seat is steep and challenging, as ethnicity and regionalism continue to play pivotal roles in the country’s presidential contests.

Historically, the race for the presidency has largely been a political duel between candidates from the five dominant ethnic communities: the Kikuyu, Luo, Kamba, Luhya and Kalenjin. At times, these groups have formed two distinct and often antagonistic political blocs in their quest for power.

Given that Dr Matiang’i hails from a smaller ethnic community and lacks a home-grown party from his Abagusii roots, political observers are closely watching his next moves.

Former Cabinet Secretary Simeon Nyachae, also a Kisii, made a bid for the presidency in 2002 under the Ford–People party, while his kinsman George Anyona had previously run on an ANC ticket. The late Nyachae had to procure a political vehicle to use in the election, which he eventually lost to Mwai Kibaki.

Matiang’i’s entry into the race has unsettled the political landscape, particularly among opposition ranks. Many view the former Cabinet Secretary as “a political project” of the immediate past president, Uhuru Kenyatta.

His association with the Jubilee Party, led by Uhuru, has sparked tensions in the Mt Kenya region, where impeached deputy president Rigathi Gachagua is seeking to cement his position as the regional kingpin.

The former Cabinet Secretary, who served in the Ministries of ICT, Education and Interior, has gained popularity among the youth and positions himself as the best candidate to reform the nation. Unlike Gachagua, who has adopted a confrontational approach towards President Ruto’s administration, Matiang’i has largely avoided divisive political rhetoric.

Political observers remain divided on the potential impact of the Jubilee Party in the upcoming presidential elections, particularly regarding its capacity to support Matiang’i’s challenge to President Ruto.

Some believe that his candidacy could undercut Gachagua’s ambitions to play kingmaker, given that Uhuru still enjoys pockets of support in the region.

As an independent-minded centrist who has never held elective office, Matiang’i is entering the presidential race without the backing of a locally established political party.

Since Kenya’s return to multi-party politics in the early 1990s, major presidential contenders have typically created parties anchored in their home regions — a practice that dates back to independence in 1963, when ethnicity became a dominant feature of political mobilisation.

While presidential candidates occasionally discuss policy issues during campaigns, ethnic and regional alliances remain central to securing votes. No single ethnic group is large enough to impose its will unilaterally, compelling aspirants to forge cross-ethnic coalitions.

This has normalised the exploitation of ethnic identity for political gain, with many voters supporting candidates from their own communities in the hope of economic or political dividends. 

Ethnicity significantly influences party loyalty, as politicians assume their community members will support them.

Matiang’i’s recent decision to join the Jubilee Party has therefore raised questions about his strategy. He must navigate a political environment where the party neither originates from nor commands strong support within his community.

Technocratic record

Critics question his political inexperience, though his appeal lies in his technocratic record. As a civil servant, he spearheaded significant reforms in the education and security sectors, earning a reputation for efficiency, discipline and integrity during his tenure as Cabinet Secretary.

With a reputation for decisive leadership and effective governance, Matiang’i has emerged as a leading contender in the upcoming general elections, favored by many voters for the presidency.

Nevertheless, his entry into politics has sparked debate over whether he can thrive in Kenya’s complex and ethnically driven political landscape without establishing his own political vehicle.

Unlike many of his predecessors, Matiang’i has not hinted at forming a personal party, appearing instead content to work within Jubilee’s existing structures and with leaders linked to the Uhuru-era coalition.

Opinions are sharply divided on this strategy, with some political analysts arguing that the best way for him to begin his political career is by progressing through the system, starting locally and moving to regional and eventually national levels.

“There’s an old adage that says all politics are local. Given that, the best place to start any political career is by working one’s way through the system, from local to regional to state to national,” says Andrew Nyabuto, a political analyst.

Nyabuto warns that Matiang’i risks being labelled “a political project” due to his association with the former president and his decision to join the Jubilee Party.

He suggests that the former CS should have consolidated his support base and sought alliances with like-minded individuals.

However, Nyabuto also acknowledges that Matiang’i could significantly benefit from Uhuru Kenyatta’s political connections and resources in his presidential campaign.

The benefits

 “Uhuru has a network across the country. His party is established and has representation nationwide. The former president has substantial financial resources and can easily mobilise support from friends both locally and abroad. This is the advantage Matiang’i gains from joining the Jubilee Party,” Nyabuto states.

Jeremiah Kioni, Jubilee Secretary General sees no issue with Matiang’i joining the party and believes he is the most viable presidential candidate from the opposition.

“I believe that candidate is Matiang’i, not just because he is in Jubilee, but because he seems to attract support from across all tribes, regions, and social strata,” Kioni remarked in a recent interview with Spice Radio.

Gitile Naituli, a professor of management and leadership, notes that Matiang’i’s choice to align with the Jubilee Party has both advantages and disadvantages.

“One advantage is that he will inherit the infrastructure built by someone else, which can help establish a political base crucial for his presidential campaign.”

However, Naituli also points out the drawbacks. “Matiang’i will also inherit the issues associated with the Uhuru administration. The Uhuru government faced several scandals, from the Eurobond controversy to the Covid billionaires’ scandal. All of this will be attributed to him. That is the risk of using someone else’s political party,” Naituli argues.

On the other hand, Naituli says that the former CS might break the tribal jinx that has characterised Kenyan politics.

 “Almost all politicians seeking the presidency have built their platforms not on national unity but on ethnic arithmetic, commonly referred to as the ‘tyranny of numbers.’ Matiang’i may have distanced himself from that by not forming or joining a party backed by his Abagusii community,” Naituli states.

Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu argues that forming political parties is crucial for consolidating regional support and building a dedicated voter base in Kenya’s political landscape.

He expresses concern that Matiang’i’s decision to align with existing parties, rather than establishing his own, may leave him reliant on the influence of others.

He emphasised that Kenya’s politics are largely driven by ethnic and regional considerations

“In a country where political parties are closely tied to specific regions and community support, the failure to establish a party reduces his control and visibility,” he says

Victor Ngatia, a young politician from Nakuru, argues that by not establishing his own political platform, Matiang’i risks depending on the goodwill of existing parties, which may not lead to widespread support across the nation.

Eng. Ngatia, who has announced his candidacy for the Nakuru West parliamentary seat, points out that while smaller parties may be limited in size, they have successfully built dedicated voter bases because their leaders have invested time and resources in developing local structures.

Still, Ngatia believes Matiang’i has a rare opportunity to shift Kenyan politics towards accountability and inclusivity.

“Kenya deserves leaders of integrity and capacity, not dealers in division and self-interest,” he concludes