Can Oburu Odinga fill Raila's shoes?

Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga did not know he had been made the acting party leader of his late brother’s Orange Democratic Movement when the decision was made, he said in a recent televised interview.

Walking in Raila Odinga’s shadow as long as he had, and in their late father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s, Dr Oburu hardly needed a heads-up to take over the party’s leadership if it came to that, as it did with the former prime minister’s passing.

Amid speculation over ODM’s future, Oburu on Monday steered the first meeting of the party’s central management committee, which he said focused more on uniting ODM, rocked by wrangles over its support for President William Ruto’s government.

Indeed, forging a united front looks like the most urgent priority for the 20-year-old opposition party. Two factions, split over whether or not to support Dr Wiliam Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027, exist within ODM. Fights between them have been scathing. Raila was the bridge between them, a job that Oburu embraced early on.

“I called the meeting because we cannot afford to have a split in the party,” Oburu said during an interview on Ramogi TV. He said the two factions had agreed to tone down their clashing positions.

Many observers have dismissed Oburu as incapable of playing that role and of filling his brother’s shoes for reasons such as the fact that he had taken sides on ODM’s support of Ruto, and openly confronted those who opposed the party’s partnership with the president’s United Democratic Alliance.

Similarly, the 82-year-old has been dismissed for lacking the charisma his late brother enjoyed and the power to keep errant party members in line. Oburu was elected to the Senate in 2022 after serving at the East African Legislative Assembly since 2017 and as a nominated Member of Parliament since 2013.

“Oburu can’t fill Raila’s shoes and he even confessed as much,” said Dr Timothy Onduru, who teaches history at Moi University. “But he can guide the party until someone who will fill Raila’s shoes emerges. The person will most likely be courageous.”

Prof Gitile Naituli, a lecturer of leadership and management, concurred, saying Oburu was best placed to lead the party during “this emotional transitional period.”

“A leader will emerge like Raila did when his father died,” said Prof Naituli. “Jaramogi left Ford Kenya to Kijana Wamalwa and James Orengo, but Raila overshadowed them.”

Oburu succeeded his late father as Bondo MP in 1994, a position he held until 2013, when he unsuccessfully sought ODM’s nomination for the Siaya governorship position, with former governor Cornel Rasanga handed the ticket as a compromise candidate. The move was aimed at forestalling a fallout after a bitter race pitting them against the current Siaya deputy governor, William Oduol.

Like Raila, Oburu suffered for his father’s political activism. As a teenager, the senator was denied the chance to study at Kenyan secondary schools and, as a result, was sent to study in communist Russia, and the government viewed him with suspicion.

But the head of the Odinga family does not enjoy the nationwide appeal his brother did, a factor that raises questions about his suitability to head ODM. It is the first time he is stepping up to the role. In life, Raila preferred Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o to fill in for him when he was away.

As Raila campaigned for his futile bid to be the African Union Commission chairperson in elections held last February, it was Nyong’o, 80, who took over the party. That was despite the fact that ODM has three deputy leaders – Governors Simba Arati (Kisii) and Abdulswamad Shariff Nassir (Mombasa), and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi.

Oburu’s pick has largely been seen as transitional, and he acknowledged the fact during the interview, where he offered a glimpse into the direction he intends to lead ODM, even though he said it was too soon to chart a coherent post-Raila plan.

Much of it revolves around installing a youthful leadership to steer the party into the future, and hence preserving “Raila’s legacy” of creating a party as consequential as ODM.

“Jakom’s age mates should exit with Jakom,” said Oburu, who made a case for youthful leadership.

Within ODM, youthful politicians like Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino have often fought for their space. They have often been criticised as rebels for their opposition to ODM supporting Ruto's re-election. Oburu has met both politicians, asserting they were key in ODM's future.

The next few months will test his resolve, as well as that of the party he has since inherited. The first battle will be to retain ODM’s parliamentary seats in Magarini, Kasipul and Ugunja in by-elections planned for November 27.

Then there will be the planning for the 2027 elections, whose campaigns are likely to heat up early next year. Raila had directed his party to prepare for the polls with the hope of producing a presidential candidate.

That matter has already caused friction, with a section of the party already committed to securing Ruto’s re-election, with another seemingly sympathetic to former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, who has supported Raila in the last three successive elections, twice as running mate.

“The possibility of ODM is very high given the speedy and forceful takeover… had just died when these people (a section of the National Executive Committee) quickly sat together,” said Herman Manyora, a university lecturer and political analyst, who argued that ODM could end up in Ruto’s hands.

“If the party hawks will maintain their stranglehold of the party, then, certainly, ODM will work with President Ruto,” Manyora said of Oburu and other Ruto sympathisers like Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, Suna East MP Junet Mohamed and Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi.