How Mama Ida is quietly shaping ODM succession

Mama Ida Odinga, widow of former ODM leader Raila Odinga, is reportedly pulling strings behind the scenes to support her daughter Winnie Odinga and other outspoken leaders advocating for an orderly party transition.

Although Ida has not publicly stated her position on the ongoing ODM re-organisation, sources say she supports reforms carried out through a competitive process, the same approach Winnie is advocating for.

Over the weekend, the youthful EALA MP renewed calls for a National Delegates Conference (NDC) to elect new officials and accused certain people of “being in ODM during the day but plotting to auction the party at night.”

Raila’s family has stepped into the growing contest over who will shape Luo Nyanza politics and steer the future of the Orange party.

“She appears to be comfortable with the team coalescing around Siaya Governor James Orengo, which includes Edwin Sifuna, Godfrey Osotsi, Caleb Amisi, Antony Kibagendi and Babu Owino,” notes political analyst Martin Andati.

Newly appointed ODM party leader Oburu Oginga is increasingly seen to enjoy the backing of President William Ruto, senior party officials and ODM representatives serving in the Kenya Kwanza government.

Orengo has in recent weeks appeared alongside Mama Ida during delegations visiting Raila’s home in Bondo, while Oburu has taken on a more central role in managing party affairs.

Political analysts say the latter group is likely to resist calls for an NDC, fearing they could lose their positions if the process becomes competitive, as Winnie and her allies demand.

Violation of Constitution 

President Ruto may also prefer to keep the party intact, seeing it as a vehicle to help secure the Luo Nyanza voting bloc in 2027, rather than allowing more radical voices to take charge and possibly steer ODM in a different direction.

Oburu and his sister Ruth Odinga, recently appointed Deputy Organising Secretary, are expected to use their new roles to shape key decisions and the party’s future direction.

Raila’s immediate family’s push to unify Luo Nyanza behind a solid, loyal base may be driven by Raila’s own experience of inheriting Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s political mantle, an inheritance that cemented the continuity of Odingaism in the region’s politics.

Oburu’s elevation as his brother’s successor has also been challenged by some ODM members led by youth leaders, among them Racheal Tabitha, who wants him to resign over accusations of violating the ODM constitution and undermining internal democracy.

In the petition released on Tuesday, the members claim Oburu and some ODM officials ignored due process, sidelined loyal members and breached Article 6.2.2(b) of the party constitution saying the actions threaten ODM’s founding values of transparency, rule of law and accountability.

“Such conduct erodes public confidence, delegitimizes party organs and contradicts the very rule of law that ODM has long championed. The party was built on the belief in safeguarding and upholding the Constitution and the rule of law. Today, many loyal members feel excluded, ignored and sidelined,” the petitioners said.

Winnie’s remarks during the ODM@20 celebrations in Mombasa over the weekend where she called for an NDC to manage the party’s relationship with government even as she accused some party officials of a plot to ‘sell’ the party elicited mixed reactions with analysts saying the remarks were aimed at showing that she was equal to the task of replacing her father.

“When it comes to the matter of this broad-based government, the people of ODM entrusted one person with the management of that relationship and that person was Baba Raila Odinga. That relationship is complicated… we need to go back to the people and have an NDC,” she said.

Her remarks angered some ODM leaders such as blogger and MCA Robert Alai who dismissed Winnie and her family saying none could effectively replace Raila.

“Baba Raila Amolo Odinga was special. Nobody in the family, within ODM, or in the country will effectively play the role of Raila. You can’t manage the broad-based government issues with your level of immaturity and experience,” he said.

He added; “My friend and sister Winnie, you will not like me, but you know that I am your greatest ally and friend, and I will always tell you the truth. Come, let’s sit down and talk so I can guide you. I mean well and wish you the best. Baba was your dad. You can’t be him.”

Region’s spokesman

In her quest to succeed her brother, Ruth has been ruthless against the ODM MPs who have been advocating for the party’s alliance with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) while her remarks that she would in future vie for presidency indicated that she too was keen on being the region’s spokesperson.

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“Nothing stops me from contesting for the presidency. I have all it takes. But first, I want to see a vibrant ODM that is a safe space for everyone,” she said.

On Luo leadership after Raila’s death, Ruth said the late ODM leader had already laid structures to ensure continuity having revived the Luo council of elders and institutionalized the ‘Piny Luo’ cultural festival. 

Mama Ida also appears to be sending mixed signals because in February last year, she appeared to have endorsed then Nominated MP John Mbadi, as the next Luo kingpin even as he urged the community to release her husband for the AU contest.

“When I left home (for Nyandiwa), Baba told me to send his greetings. He said you should remain steadfast following the new political developments as he has already assembled a competent team that can take charge in case he goes to Addis Ababa. For a long time, Baba has been training Mbadi and he (Mbadi) doesn’t want any more training. You fit the bill, Mbadi Nyang’, that is it. Mbadi is where Raila’s heart is,” Ida said. 

The involvement of Raila Odinga’s family in party politics has further split ODM, with political analysts divided over whether members of the Oginga family should continue playing an active role or allow a full transition to take place.

Political analyst Herman Manyora argues that Mama Ida should take a cue from Mama Ngina Kenyatta by remaining cautious, firm and discreet in political affairs.

He noted that, just as Mama Ngina maintained silence and measured firmness, Ida should avoid making political statements that might undermine Raila’s legacy.

“If they want to operate within the realities of Kenyan politics, given who their person was, they should emulate Mama Ngina Kenyatta and study how she carried herself after Mzee Jomo Kenyatta died in 1978, the silence, the caution, the firmness,” Manyora said.

Leonard Khafafa, public policy analyst said that Mama Ida was an embodiment of a rare convergence of all the disagreeing factions within the ODM.

“Having stood steadfastly beside Baba through both struggle and ascension, she commands respect, not only as a stalwart of the Opposition but also as a conciliatory voice. As the esteemed matriarch of ODM, she emerges as a potential linchpin for unity in the party’s uncertain post-Raila future,” Khafafa noted.

Political analyst Joshua Nyamori argued that no politician in Nyanza, including members of Raila’s family, can replace him, describing Raila as “many things in one body.”

“Mama Ida has stood by Raila for many years and carved her own space as a women’s rights activist, which has given her political capital. But the reality is that no one can replace Raila. His influence extended far beyond Nyanza; he was a warrior who proved his worth over decades,” Nyamori said.

He added that it could take a century for the region to produce another leader of Raila’s stature, noting that Raila built strong party structures, mobilised resources and established a political depth that firmly anchored his influence in Nyanza.

On the immediate direction of Luo politics, Nyamori said the region is likely to rally behind President Ruto. He dismissed the broad-based critics within ODM, arguing that they needed the party more than it needed them.

“It was the late Raila who told his supporters that their working arrangement with Ruto would extend beyond 2027, and this is the course his community will follow. For now, there is no leader within ODM with the capacity to run for the presidency,” he said.

However, Dr Charles Ng’ang’a of JKUAT argued that Mama Ida cannot be overlooked, noting that she is the only person who fully understood what Raila had envisioned for the party ahead of 2027.

“As Raila’s wife, Mama Ida knew what he wanted for his community and constituency. While others may claim they spoke to him days before his death, she spent all her years by his side,” Dr Ng’ang’a said.