What next for Gachagua after losing crucial test

The just-concluded by-elections were a litmus test of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s political influence in the Mt Kenya region and a gauge of the acceptance of his Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) outside the region.

Although the DCP did not field a candidate in Mbeere North, the poll was largely seen as a barometer to measure Gachagua’s assertion that he is the “king of the mountain” and to practically examine his repeated claims that the Mt Kenya region broke ranks with President William Ruto’s UDA and that “nobody wants to hear anything associated with the Wheelbarrow Party.”

The Mbeere North contest, long a fierce battle between Democratic Party (DP) leader Justin Muturi and Devolution Empowerment Party leader Lenny Kivuti, evolved into a regional showdown between Gachagua and his successor, Kithure Kindiki.

The government deployed enormous resources, with Kindiki, Cabinet Secretary for Public Service Geoffrey Ruku, and Embu Governor Cecile Mbarire camping in the constituency and dishing out goodies to the electorate.

The external influence of Gachagua and Kindiki thrust the constituency into the national limelight, attracting local and international election observers who camped in the area to closely monitor the by-election.

The Inform Action Group, European Platform for Democratic, Elections, Elections Observation Group (ELOG), and the Law Society of Kenya (LSK) crisscrossed the three wards of the constituency to observe the exercise, highlighting the high stakes involved.

After a rigorous exercise marred by voter bribery claims, intimidation, and a heavy presence of high-ranking government officials, the Kenya Kwanza candidate prevailed, albeit with a slim margin.

UDA’s Leo wa Muthende garnered 15,802 votes against DP’s Newton Karish, who secured 15,308, while former CS Moses Kuria’s Chama cha Kazi candidate Duncan Mbui got 2,480 votes.

Despite theories that Kuria split votes that could have arguably given Karish a win, political analysts maintain that a win is a win and that the Opposition must return to the drawing board, while Gachagua must rethink his strategy of “coating the mountain.”

Lawyer Wahome Thuku said, “Continue talking of blue, red, white, pink, grey wheelbarrows and you will see dust,” in reference to Gachagua’s stance against other political parties from the region.

“Anyone who walked to a polling booth anywhere in the country yesterday and ticked yellow wheelbarrow for an MCA, MP, or Senator, has the potential of ticking yellow wheelbarrow for President.”

Nicholus Karauri, a political strategist, opined that Gachagua is deflated, while there will be a perception that Kindiki is a go-getter and a smooth operator.

But Gachagua did not interpret the outcome that way. He chose to celebrate the performance of his newest political party in the by-elections while simultaneously associating voter bribery with the DP candidate’s loss in Mbeere North.

“I offer hearty congratulations to Douglas Masikonde, David Warui, and Dickson Okwiri Aduda for winning the Narok Township, Kariobangi North, and Kisa East wards, respectively. Our party, the newest kid on the block, seven months old, whitewashed old parties, some as old as 20 years,” Gachagua said.

As for the DCP candidate in the Magarini by-election, Gachagua sees a bright future after his candidate came a distant second with 8,907 votes against ODM’s Harrison Kombe, who garnered 17,909 votes.

“This now gives us an entry into the Coast region. I will be in the Coast over the holiday season to meet potential aspirants and establish party offices,” Gachagua said.

In most by-elections, the DCP either won or trounced other parties, including UDA and ODM.

For instance, in Purko Ward in Narok, UDA’s candidate Mpusia Amos was elected MCA after garnering 2,805 votes, followed by DCP’s Simon Sanare Saidimu with 1,522 votes, while ODM’s Daniel Naikuni came a distant third with only 298 votes.

Jubilee Deputy Organising Secretary Pauline Njoroge opined that, despite being trounced, the United Opposition put up  an impressive fight despite the State machinery being deployed against them.

“Gachagua stood at the frontline, confronting the full force of State machinery and a staggering war chest of Sh600 million deployed in Mbeere North, while his very new party, DCP, still managed to clinch three ward seats in Narok, Nairobi, and Kakamega.

“Matiang’i, the man who works with precision and effectiveness that speaks loudly, delivered three seats in Nyamira, proving why he is one of the most dependable anchors in our political landscape.”

She also singled out Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka for securing an MCA seat in Machakos and hailed Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya for putting up a strong showing in Malava and winning a seat in Bungoma, considered a stronghold for National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula’s Ford Kenya party.

She, however, noted that with the way the 2027 General Election is shaping up, the Opposition needs clarity, unity, and strategy.

“It is time to close ranks, strengthen our coordination, build a robust structure, and sharpen our message. Divisions and infighting cannot be part of our journey at this critical stage. If we organise early, align our narrative to the everyday realities of the people, and invest smartly and strategically, victory in 2027 is within reach,” she said.

For Manyatta MP Gitonga Mukunji, the lesson after the by-election was that candidates preparing to seek elective positions must have two things in mind: sorting people and developing a strategy to work with the police, “because the police will always serve the State.”