'Faya si faya': Kindiki emerges stronger from by-election but battle for his seat still on

The just concluded by-elections have been hailed as a show of political might for President William Ruto and his broad-based government but have also fuelled debate on his political line-up ahead of the 2027 General Election.

A strong showing in the mini-poll by both his deputy Kithure Kindiki and by the ODM party - amid sustained calls for the retention of Kindiki as his running mate in 2027 - has further thrust to the fore President Ruto’s tough balancing act as he seeks to tighten his grip on the slipping Mt Kenya region and accommodate new allies in his broad-based outfit.

Prior to the by-elections, Kindiki had been dismissed as a non-starter, with critics doubting his ability to add to President Ruto’s vote pool.

And ODM, reeling from the loss of its party leader Raila Odinga, sought a political union with the ruling UDA come 2027 albeit with a caveat: that it would not settle for anything lower than the deputy presidency.

“If we have to go for a lower position, it must not be lower than number two (deputy president) in any formation. We should not take less than that,” said recently installed ODM leader Oburu Oginga early this month.

But despite his utterances marking the party’s first major strategic declaration in the post-Raila era, they drew criticism from some UDA politicians.

“I want to tell those who want to work with us in the broad-based government or in a coalition going into 2027 and 2032 that they should seek other positions. The President and Deputy President positions are non-negotiable and already reserved for William Ruto and Kithure Kindiki,” said Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei.

Pundits say the Mbeere North by-election was a significant political victory for Kindiki and testament that he has found his political footing, evidenced by his trouncing of his predecessor Rigathi Gachagua.

History and governance professor Macharia Munene says it would be a mistake for Ruto to dump Kindiki ahead of the General Election given his efforts to bring the Mt Kenya region back into UDA’s fold.

“Deputy President Kindiki was a big winner in the by-elections. He now enjoys a new lease of political life. He has proven that he is a force and can deliver and Ruto has no excuse for dumping him in 2027,” stated Prof Macharia.

“As for Gachagua, he had given the impression that it was a sure thing for the opposition to win Mbeere North. His undoing could have been the fact that he took over the campaigns for the Democratic Party candidate and it appeared as if it was now a contest between him and Ruto.”

Emboldened by its wins in Kasipul, Magarini and Ugunja constituencies, analysts observe that ODM will now up the stakes in the fight for the running mate position in 2027.

There’s, however, no telling whether the party will hold intact until the election, and this could further complicate the power equation for President Ruto. Since Raila's death, the party has been grappling with divergent views on its future direction.

Siaya Governor James Orengo, East Africa Legislative Assembly (EALA) MP Winnie Odinga, Deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi, and Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna have emerged as staunch defenders of what they perceive to be the identity and soul of Raila’s party.

Seemingly eager to take cue from where Raila left off, they are now leading the charge against calls by a section of their colleagues to support Ruto's re-election, with  recent remarks from the trio during the party’s 20th anniversary celebrations signifying the battles ahead.

“There are people claiming that within ODM no one can become President. I want to tell you if we rally behind any one of us, we will win the elections. Let us go back to our roots.  Let us not be people who are begging what can be rightfully ours,” Sifuna said.

On the other hand, a faction led by party chairperson Gladys Wanga, Deputy party leader Simba Arati and Cabinet Secretaries Hassan Joho (Mining and Blue Economy) Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) and John Mbadi (National Treasury), among others want the party to back Ruto in 2027.

They have emerged as fervent defenders of the party’s collaboration with Ruto’s UDA.

And while celebrating Boyd Were’s win in Kasipul on Friday, Wanga, the Homa Bay Governor, hit out at the party’s critics, saying it will remain united.

“This (win) shows that the ODM remains strong and resilient. For those who wrote off ODM after Raila's death, I think they have now seen for themselves,” Wanga said.

Gitile Naituli, a professor of leadership and management, observes that the political developments present a tough balancing act for Ruto

“The likelihood of Ruto retaining Kindiki as his deputy is now higher because he thinks he can make inroads into Mt Kenya which is a rich-vote region. Picking a leader from the Luo community may cost him the Luhya votes and he can’t afford to lose both Mt Kenya and the Western region,” he told The Standard

"With Kindiki on the ballot, he as a better chance of getting both the Luo and Luhya communities to play ball,” he added.