Power struggles, NDC push throw ODM party succession to the brink

A potential implosion is looming in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Kenya’s most enduring opposition party, as leaders continue to disagree over the party’s future engagements and direction.

This is happening as camps begin to emerge within the party, including in former Raila Odinga’s family, where his kin appear to be pulling in different directions.

The Sunday Standard has established that senior ODM stalwarts are mulling ways to prevent the cracks from exploding into an open-ended clash between rivals.

That effort, however, faces gloom amid an internal supremacy wrangle. At the heart of the wrangles is party leader Oburu Oginga, who has been thrust into a battle for survival in his leadership.

In the background, an all-out campaign for supremacy has erupted with key political leaders fighting to inherit Raila’s support base. In the last two weeks, Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi have pitched tent in the region to market their credentials.

While Mbadi declared he is the region’s new kingpin, Wandayi hosted members of the Luo Council of Elders in a move observers believe is part of his strategy to fall in line with the succession debate.

Although the three are just part of a wider political power play, insiders believe the cracks in the party are becoming more pronounced as the clock ticks.

One faction is pushing for an early National Delegates Conference (NDC) to redefine leadership and strategy after Raila’s death. The target for this camp is to overhaul the leadership of Oburu and party chairperson Gladys Wanga.

Another camp is insisting the party should remain firmly embedded in President William Ruto’s broad-based government, while a third is calling for ODM to reclaim its opposition identity and rally a united front against the Kenya Kwanza administration ahead of 2027.

On Friday, during the burial of a journalist, Festus Amimo, the clash of ideologies became more pronounced as some leaders claimed the region is yet to settle on their new leader.

Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo said the spirit of kingship is yet to settle on any leader and urged the community to remain calm.

“The spirit (juogi) is still roaming around and it has not settled on anyone. Let us be patient,” said Elisha. 

Competing visions

What was once a tightly controlled party under Raila’s singular authority has now become a battleground of competing visions, personalities and regional interests.

For nearly two decades, Raila was ODM’s ideological anchor, chief negotiator and ultimate arbiter. Loyalists say that Raila’s word settled disputes, shaped alliances and restrained ambition.

Without Raila, the party’s loyalists fear that internal contradictions bursting into the open might fragment the party. Shortly after his death, the ODM National Governing Council (NGC) endorsed Senator Dr Oburu as party leader , a move meant to guarantee continuity but one that has instead ignited controversy.

Sections of ODM loyalists have taken a firm position that the party must honour what they describe as Raila’s “last political decision”: cooperation with President Ruto through the broad-based government.

Oburu has repeatedly dismissed suggestions that ODM should retreat into opposition, arguing that political relevance in the current environment demands engagement rather than confrontation.

“ODM will either contest the next election on its own or with partners,” he said at a recent party forum. He also claimed on Friday that he has the mettle to lead the party.

“But we are not going back to opposition politics for the sake of noise.”

However, that position has drawn sharp resistance from within ODM, especially from leaders who argue that Raila’s death fundamentally altered the political equation and requires a fresh mandate from party members.

Leading that charge is Winnie Odinga, Raila’s daughter and a Member of the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA), whose call for an urgent NDC has shaken the party’s top leadership.

Speaking during ODM’s 20th anniversary celebrations, Winnie questioned whether the current leadership had the legitimacy or capacity to manage the party’s complex relationship with the Kenya Kwanza government.

“When it come to the matter of the broad-based government, ODM entrusted one person, Raila Odinga, with managing that relationship,” Winnie said.

“That relationship is complicated. The question is: are those now in charge capable of managing it?”

She argued that the only legitimate way forward was to convene a National Delegates Conference and allow party members to decide both leadership and direction. Winnie’s remarks were interpreted by many as a direct challenge to Oburu’s authority, and possibly an attempt to reshape ODM’s leadership hierarchy altogether.

Oburu responded with a mix of defiance and paternal restraint, brushing off Winnie’s remarks while making it clear that the party leadership would not be dictated to through public pressure. Politically, however, Oburu has remained unambiguous.

“There will be no division in ODM under my watch. Those imagining they can fracture this party are mistaken,” he said.

Losing its identity

Resistance within ODM is not limited to Winnie Odinga’s camp. Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo, and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino have openly questioned the wisdom of aligning the party too closely with President Ruto.

Sifuna warned that ODM risks losing its identity if it becomes indistinguishable from the ruling coalition. A political party must know what it stands for. Our strength has always come from our clarity of purpose and connection to the people,” he said at a recent event.

Orengo was even more blunt, describing any permanent alignment with Kenya Kwanza as politically reckless. “ODM was not formed to be an accessory to power. We must be careful not to abandon our principles in the name of convenience,” he said.

Their remarks have amplified the sense that ODM is drifting without consensus, with Raila’s absence removing the figure capable of reconciling competing viewpoints.

Under the party’s constitution, the NDC is ODM’s highest decision-making organ, bringing together delegates nationwide to elect leaders and ratify policy direction.

The last full NDC was held in December 2023, with another tentatively scheduled for October 2025 before Raila’s death disrupted plans. An NDC can be convened by the National Executive Committee or the National Governing Council, but only after formal notice and consultations with party structures. Supporters of an early NDC argue that Raila’s death constitutes extraordinary circumstances demanding immediate action, while opponents caution that rushing could fracture the party.

Tensions have spilled into ODM strongholds, particularly Western Kenya, where the party enjoys deep grassroots support.

Last week, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi and Sifuna were summoned by the Luhya Elders’ Forum, a council representing all 38 constituencies in the region, to deliberate on ODM’s future. The elders expressed concern that internal divisions could weaken the Luhya political voice.

“We briefed them on the current happenings within ODM, a party the region has heavily invested in,” said Osotsi, dismissing claims that he and Sifuna were planning to abandon the party.

Political analysts say Western Kenya, Nyanza, and the Coast remain ODM’s backbone, and unresolved tensions exposed by Raila’s death could provide openings for rivals.

“Whether through an NDC, internal compromise, or gradual realignment, ODM must decide whether it will be a partner in government, a revived opposition force, or something entirely new,” said analyst Moses Ombayo.