Night of long knives: Inside Ruto-ODM Kilgoris power pact meeting

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) — the party former Prime Minister Raila Odinga built through blood, sweat and tears — is at a crossroads as senior party figures pursue a pre-election pact ahead of 2027 with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

This follows revelations that President Ruto hosted senior ODM leaders at his Kilgoris home on Christmas Day to seal a deal that now awaits endorsement by the party’s National Delegates Conference next month.

Sources who attended the meeting told The Standard that party officials opposed to backing the President — including Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Siaya Senator James Orengo, Vice Chairperson Godfrey Osotsi, Kisii Governor Simba Arati, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Saboti MP Caleb Amisi and other so-called Third Force allies — could be pushed out of the party. 

The plan could mark the beginning of the end of ODM in its traditional form, ushering in a new political order designed to anchor President Ruto’s re-election campaign.

The Kilgoris meeting, chaired by President Ruto, was attended by ODM party leader Oburu Odinga, Chairperson Gladys Wanga, Cabinet Secretaries Opiyo Wandayi and Wycliffe Oparanya, Majority Whip Junet Mohammed and Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir.

Those present also proposed the formation of a large coalition, modelled on Raila Odinga’s Azimio alliance, to counter the opposition.

Conspicuously absent were Sifuna, Osotsi and Winnie Odinga. Sources say Raila Odinga Jr, who was elsewhere at the time, later echoed themes of cooperation at a rally in Migori.

Party insiders further disclosed that President Ruto agreed to halt UDA activities in Nyanza to ease tensions and competition among aspirants in parties aligned to the so-called broad-based government.

Instead, Ruto reportedly instructed UDA and ODM operatives in the region to focus on mass voter registration and national ID enrolment to boost numbers.

Another faction within ODM, alongside the President’s allies, is pushing for a full merger between the two parties — a move likened to the March 18, 2002 Kanu–NDP merger, when Raila Odinga was appointed Kanu Secretary General by then President Daniel arap Moi at Kasarani Stadium.

That cooperation yielded several rewards, including the Deputy Speaker’s post, multiple appointments and participation in both domestic and foreign presidential engagements.

“The big reward was Raila’s appointment to Cabinet, giving him authority to articulate government policy and sell Kanu’s agenda, on the assumption he could do it better than the tired old Kanu guard,” said historian Prof Macharia Munene

Ford Kenya fate

Analysts, however, warn that ODM risks a fate similar to that of the once formidable Ford Kenya party, founded by Raila’s father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

Prof Munene argues that political coalitions are typically short-term arrangements designed to achieve specific objectives. While some players succeed, many end up being used and discarded — or fail to achieve their intended goals.

Sources say that if all goes according to plan, the merger could be concluded before June, consolidating ODM’s traditional strongholds in Nyanza, Western and the Coast to create a political wave ahead of the polls.

“The goal is to ensure Ruto is re-elected,” said one source.

However, a working arrangement could be finalised as early as March, following ODM’s National Delegates Conference, which Ruto’s sympathisers want held in January.

On Sunday, Nassir — one of ODM’s three deputy party leaders — publicly acknowledged the plan, announcing that the party would convene its Central Committee next month to authorise Oburu to initiate coalition talks with UDA.

Speaking during the Wachangamwe cultural festival at Ahmed Shahame Mwidani Technical Training Institute in Changamwe sub-county, Nassir said ODM would follow Raila Odinga’s wishes, noting that he left the party in a broad-based government and urged cooperation with President Ruto.

“ODM contested the last three general elections under Cord, Nasa and Azimio. There is no reason why we should not initiate coalition talks with UDA for the next election,” Nassir said. “We are preparing for 2027, and talks will begin in January.”

Sources told The Standard that a senior political operative in Western Kenya who had been exploring the formation of a new party had been advised to slow down and instead refocus on ODM.

This is what perceived rebels describe as an attempt to auction the party to President Ruto, who, insiders say, is keen to reshape ODM in his own image.

Azimo coalition

The plan mirrors the Azimio coalition assembled by former President Uhuru Kenyatta ahead of the 2022 General Election, albeit with significant adjustments.

The Standard has established that coalition talks were the central agenda at a private, two-hour meeting last Thursday between the President and ODM leaders at his Kilgoris ranch.

That closed-door meeting marked the opening move in what sources describe as a well-funded and ruthless operation to absorb ODM’s political machinery into the ruling UDA.

The objective is straightforward: ODM commands numbers President Ruto needs. By effectively swallowing the party founded by his former rival, Raila Odinga, he would all but secure a second term.

Sources say the agreed timeline is to conclude everything by the end of March.

Multiple senior figures within ODM and the administration, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the President’s proposal was delivered as a directive.

Under the plan, ODM would cease to exist as an independent entity, with its structures and supporters folded into UDA.

The blueprint is systematic. The first phase, already underway, involves snap grassroots and national elections within ODM. Publicly, this will be justified as a leadership renewal following Raila Odinga’s death. Privately, it is about control.

President Ruto has reportedly pledged to bankroll the exercise to ensure a compliant leadership emerges. This leadership would then convene a National Delegates Conference to pass a resolution formally merging ODM with UDA, paving the way for a negotiated power-sharing deal ahead of 2027.

“This is a life-and-death issue for his second term,” said a veteran political strategist familiar with the plan. “If you dismantle ODM — pull away the Luhya bloc and use Oburu to neutralise the Luo heartland — no price is too high. We’re talking about a war chest of up to Sh5 billion. It has to be done fast.”

ODM operatives

On the ground, the messaging has already shifted. In parts of Nyanza and Western, ODM operatives are increasingly framing their campaigns around Ruto’s re-election.

In Homa Bay, President Ruto confirmed  that coalition talks with the Oburu-led ODM were underway.

Speaking at Raila Odinga Stadium during the Genowa Governor’s Cup tournament organised by Governor Gladys Wanga, Ruto said modalities were being put in place to form a new political alliance to build the next government.

He urged ODM leaders to strengthen their party to become a formidable force.

“I tell ODM members to be ready. On our side, as UDA and Kenya Kwanza, we are also ready. Let us strategise and join hands to form a government that will make Kenya a first-world country,” Ruto said.

Oburu assured the President of ODM’s commitment to cooperation through the broad-based government.

“ODM will continue working within the broad-based government until 2027 to support President Ruto,” he said.

Meanwhile, Sifuna and Osotsi have pushed back, accusing senior party officials — including Wanga and Junet Mohammed — of secretly negotiating ODM’s support in exchange for future positions.

“As a party, we have not sent anyone to negotiate on our behalf for positions in any government,” Sifuna said.

He insisted ODM remains capable of producing a president and does not need alliances to remain politically relevant.

Additional reporting by James Omoro.