Mudavadi and Wetangula: The powerful yet powerless duo

The political architecture of the Mulembe nation is witnessing a massive realignment threatening to push the region’s old guards, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, into oblivion as the 2027 General Election approaches.

The region is experiencing intense political activity as new entrants intensify their strategy to unite Western Kenya and usher in a new political order.

Following the death of veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga, some believed an opportunity had presented itself for the duo to stamp their authority and unite the region.

For decades, Raila Odinga served as the political lodestar for Western Kenya, commanding loyalty across ethnic and generational lines. That opportunity now appears to be slipping from Wetang’ula and Mudavadi’s grasp as opposition against them grows.

It now appears that the damage inflicted by a relentless two-year campaign mounted by Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya against their long political careers may have been extensive, making recovery difficult.

The pair took the onslaught lightly, dismissing Natembeya as a political novice, even as other opposition voices such as Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale, former Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala, ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, ODM deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi, and a host of MPs joined the bandwagon.

Through his Tawe movement, Natembeya has built a wave that is threatening the status quo.

So dire is the situation for the duo that residents have begun openly showing hostility towards them, even as their competitors enjoy cheers of approval.

Observers believe the hostility the duo faced during the burial of former Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo, as well as embarrassing defeats in two wards during November’s by-elections, is only the tip of the iceberg, with doom awaiting them as the country gravitates towards 2027.

In the concluded by-elections, Wetang’ula cast his vote at Namakhele Primary School in Chwele-Kabuchai, but at that polling station independent candidate Erick Wekesa, who emerged the overall winner, defeated Ford Kenya candidate Vincent Maunda with 268 votes against 195.

Among those who laughed off the Speaker’s dismal performance was Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi.

Wanyonyi has been shifting focus from Nairobi politics to his home turf, where he is said to be eyeing the Bungoma gubernatorial race in the coming General Election.

Wanyonyi, who prefers to be called Tim, is the Speaker’s younger brother whom he has dissociated himself with. He has always belonged to a different political formation since entering politics in 2007 through ODM, while Wetang’ula ran on a PNU ticket.

“Si mliona wakitembea hapa wakitisha watu eti Kabuchai ward sijui nini, si walishindwa asubuhi?”

The MP said last month during political sessions with youths and other grassroots leaders in the county.

His supporters told The Standard that even as he guns for Bungoma’s top seat, his brother’s party, Ford Kenya — on whose ticket current Governor Kenneth Lusaka ran — is not an option.

“Wetang’ula has outlived his usefulness. He has been in power for a very long time, but there is no development he has brought to Western,” said resident Simon Barasa.

In Kisa East, Mudavadi’s UDA candidate James Shiraku managed only 61 votes, further dimming his prospects of maintaining dominance in the area.

For Mudavadi, his fate appears sealed. The uncharacteristically rough political tone that announced his entry into the Kenya Kwanza Alliance appears to have faded. A softer, more persuasive tone has taken over as he urges Kenyans to embrace his push for a referendum to entrench the position of prime minister and the office of the official opposition in the Constitution.

Mudavadi is clinging to UDA for political survival and is struggling to craft an independent identity after giving up his own Amani National Congress party to bet his future on President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance.

But judging from reactions by constituents, former allies, and his intermittent public outbursts and contentious proposals on a 2027 referendum, the PCS appears to be trudging through a rough patch with potential implications for his political future.

Observers believe changing political dynamics in Western Kenya and the rise of new centres of power scrambling for the soul of the Luhya nation are slowly pushing the two leaders into a political abyss.

According to them, the region is yearning for fresh leadership and believes the duo have failed to stamp their authority as the region’s key voices.

“The expectation was that Mudavadi and Wetang’ula would reorganise Western politics after Raila,” says political analyst Barrack Muluka. “What we have seen instead is hesitation, self-preservation and a failure to articulate a shared regional vision.”

Instead of presenting a unifying regional agenda, they retreated into  elite power circles in Nairobi, leaving grassroots politics unattended.

Natembeya factor

The emergence of Natembeya as a bold, vocal and defiant political figure is disrupting the traditional political order in the region.

Speaking at Luuya Comprehensive School grounds in Kwanza Constituency earlier this week, Natembeya said Mudavadi lacks the moral authority to comment on the referendum, particularly given that the office he occupies is unconstitutional.

“Kenya does not need more political lectures. Kenyans want solutions. People are struggling with the cost of food, education and healthcare,” he said.

In his quest to push the duo into a political abyss, Natembeya has toured all Western counties with a simple message: the region needs new political leadership.

His message, centred on economic justice, regional unity and resistance to perceived marginalisation, has resonated widely, particularly among young voters.

Natembeya’s frequent clashes with State agencies have only amplified his appeal, portraying him as fearless and unafraid to challenge power.

However, Muluka warns that Natembeya’s rise carries risks.

“He is doing well because his message connects,” Muluka says. “But his biggest problem is that he is a lone ranger. Unity cannot be built by one person shouting alone.”

According to Muluka, without alliances across Western counties and cooperation from senior leaders, Natembeya risks political isolation.

However, Khalwale, who has broken ranks with the President’s camp, is among leaders rallying around him.

Khalwale says he is ready to work with Natembeya to unite the community and push shared political goals, and has in recent weeks intensified criticism of Mudavadi and Wetang’ula.

Similarly, ODM’s Sifuna is leading a front against the two leaders, arguing they have done little to uplift the region. In Western Kenya, Sifuna is gaining near-fanatical support as he seeks to strengthen ODM and rally the region around unity.

Although ODM’s grip on Western Kenya has weakened since Raila’s death amid factional wars, Sifuna’s sharp critiques of the Ruto administration have resonated with voters who feel betrayed by leaders aligned with government.

By framing the broad-based government as an elite pact detached from ordinary citizens, Sifuna has kept opposition politics alive in the region, further complicating Mudavadi and Wetang’ula’s efforts to consolidate support.

During the burial of businessman and political operative Cyrus Jirongo, leaders who attempted to promote Mudavadi and Wetang’ula as the face of the Luhya community were met with boos and jeers.

Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja was heckled as he urged mourners to rally behind the two leaders.

“Let us respect the leaders who are before us. As a community, we have Musalia Mudavadi and Wetang’ula as our leaders. Let us give them the respect they deserve,” Sakaja said, amid loud boos.

Mudavadi’s allies, however, are drumming up support for him and believe President Ruto should consider him as a possible running mate in 2027.

Last Saturday, Vihiga Woman Representative Beatrice Adagala said Mudavadi has both the experience and capacity to serve as Deputy President, noting he previously served as Vice President and is among the most senior officials in Ruto’s administration.

Despite holding some of the most powerful offices in government, many Western Kenya residents say they have not seen meaningful improvements in their daily lives.

High unemployment, poor infrastructure, rising living costs and stalled development projects continue to dominate local conversations.

This perception has been amplified by President Ruto’s tough economic policies, including higher taxation and reduced subsidies, which have hit ordinary households hard.

As senior government figures, Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are viewed as defenders of these policies, making them easy targets for public frustration.

“We want accountability, not positions. Leadership must deliver, not just negotiate deals in Nairobi,” said Jack Wamboka during Jirongo’s burial.

[Report by Harold Odhiambo, Mary Imenza and Ndungu Gachane]