Realignment fear looms as ODM deal inches closer

The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) pre-election pact is as good as done, following fast-moving developments towards its conclusion. However, fears are growing that it could trigger tensions — and even internal ruptures — within both political camps.

The danger of an implosion is looming large amid the emergence of splinter groups in both parties and a strained relationship between President William Ruto and the Mt Kenya region.

Political strategists and elected leaders from the two parties believe that even before formal talks begin, Mt Kenya — which gave Ruto a running mate in 2022 — may desert him should he accede to ODM’s demand for the Deputy President’s post as part of a deal to support his 2027 re-election bid.

On Wednesday, ODM party leader Oburu Oginga said the party would form the next government with President Ruto’s outfit while bargaining from a position of strength in 2027, and later explore cooperation with other political formations ahead of the 2032 polls.

He was speaking at Kamukunji Grounds in Kibera, where ODM convened what it termed a Public Consultative Forum to seek public endorsement of a resolution by the Central Management Committee to enter into a coalition with UDA.

However, ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Vice-Chairman Godfrey Osotsi and Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya — all senior party officials from Western Kenya — were conspicuously absent from the highly publicised event, where Oburu was also named to the ODM Elders’ Council.

According to Prof Gitile Naituli, ODM risks fracturing at two critical stages: the onset of talks and the subsequent bargaining over positions.

“Immediately the talks begin, we expect to see a splinter group that will be led by Sifuna. But even those who will remain will differ on who should occupy which positions before embarking on full-throttle campaigns for next year’s polls. There are leaders who feel closer to Ruto than others and, at this point, the last nail on ODM’s coffin will be nailed,” he said.

There is also growing anxiety in the Mt Kenya region over what leaders there would gain should the ODM–UDA pact result in a 50–50 power-sharing arrangement, as some ODM leaders have suggested.

President Ruto appears keen to reclaim the support he enjoyed in Mt Kenya in 2022, but analysts warn this would be difficult if he replaces Deputy President Prof Kithure Kindiki with an ODM figure while simultaneously dislodging Cabinet members from the region.

Last month, Oburu insisted ODM would not settle for any position lower than Deputy President in a pre-poll pact with UDA.

“If the party were to settle for the lowest position for us to support President Ruto, it must not be lower than number two, and that will depend on how hard we work to strengthen ODM,” he said in a TV interview.

National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah has argued that the running-mate position should be determined by the political weight each region brings to the table, shaped by mobilisation on the ground.

Ichung’wah said Ruto had advised both Mt Kenya and ODM leaders to organise their parties ahead of 2027.

“I have listened carefully to what the President is telling ODM and UDA leaders — the same thing. The message is: go and organise your political parties, and that is why we are having our grassroots elections on January 10 to organise our party,” he said.

UDA’s recent victory in the Mbeere North by-election has further emboldened Ruto’s allies in Mt Kenya, complicating negotiations with ODM.

“UDA is our party as the people of the Mt Kenya region because that is the party we were elected on, and we remain in that party. The people of Mbeere North have also sent out a clear message,” Ichung’wah said.

Yet signs of a fierce tug-of-war are emerging. Homa Bay MP Peter Kaluma has urged Ruto to abandon hopes of reclaiming Mt Kenya support and instead consolidate other regions.

“President William Ruto, Mt Kenya is gone, kabisa! They didn’t vote for you; they voted against Raila due to their undone 1969 oath. They never voted you in 2022; they were voting our Raila and, in exchange for their (Mt Kenya) votes, they were to rule as you reign — you were to repay their votes by excluding other Kenyans from development and public service,” Kaluma wrote on X.

He added: “No amount of projects and public service appointments will return them. Smell the coffee! Act fast to consolidate your new bases. Refuse to heed, and perish!”

Oburu has also pointed to ODM’s growing presence in government.

“We got into this government by accident because the government was shaken by Gen-Zs. We got into this government through the back door, through the window, but now I’m telling you as we approach 2027 we are going into government through the main door to negotiate. We are going to get our shares,” he said.

Analysts warn that the emerging regional rivalry could erode Ruto’s recent gains in Mt Kenya while undermining his outreach to Nyanza.

“This altercation among leaders who support Ruto may work against him in both regions and defeat the purpose of trying to gain more votes from Nyanza, because he still requires some votes from Mt Kenya,” said political analyst Pius Kinuthia.

Siaya Governor James Orengo cautioned that the talks risk “Luo-ising” ODM and shrinking it into a regional party.

“If ODM chooses to work with Kenya Kwanza or UDA under the current circumstances, the likely outcome is that the party will gradually shrink and retreat into Luo Nyanza,” Orengo warned.

He urged the party to use the next 10 to 12 months to rebuild itself nationally before entering coalition talks.

Saboti MP Caleb Amisi echoed the concerns, accusing Ruto of political duplicity and warning that ODM risked being weakened by the engagement.

He belongs to a faction of ODM that includes Edwin Sifuna, Godfrey Osotsi and Babu Owino.