Natembeya rises as defections rock Trans Nzoia

Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya’s political prominence is rising and he is increasingly regarded as a “stand-out politician and supremo” among leaders in Western Kenya.  

This is largely due to the popularity of the Kenya Kwanza government, which has bolstered his profile. Many political analysts argue that Natembeya is poised to become a leading figure in Western Kenya politics as the 2027 General Election approaches.

Natembeya’s ascent, however, poses a challenge to the ruling Kenya Kwanza administration, which has reportedly launched efforts to politically and economically undermine him.

Despite the waning influence of opposition parties in the region, attributed to Kenya Kwanza’s strategic appeal, Natembeya remains a formidable contender.

The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has emerged as the primary beneficiary of the shifting political landscape, with leaders defecting and political realignments taking shape.

Among the notable politicians who have joined UDA are Kakai Bisau from the Democratic Action Party (DAP-K), led by opposition principal Eugene Wamalwa and former Kiminini Member of Parliament Chris Wamalwa, who left Ford Kenya. Governor Natembeya’s political advisor, Joshua Werunga, also defected. Werunga, who was DAP-K County chairman for Trans Nzoia and a former County Assembly Speaker, is considered a significant loss for Natembeya and the opposition. A compelling speaker and political strategist, Werunga was reportedly courted by UDA to weaken Natembeya’s influence.

“I do not regret my decision because I had a lot of consultation. We want to welcome President William Ruto to our county because we want development,” Werunga said.

In a recent UDA consultative meeting in Kwanza constituency, Werunga expressed no regrets and announced his intention to contest the Kwanza parliamentary seat on a UDA ticket in 2027. This seat is currently held by Ford Kenya Deputy Party leader Ferdinand Wanyonyi.

The defection coincides with ongoing divisions among Members of the County Assembly, some of whom have also joined Kenya Kwanza. A recent gathering involving some MCAs, President Ruto and Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka—who leads Ruto’s re-election campaign in the western region—has further influenced grassroots political dynamics. Among those who have left Natembeya’s camp is his close ally, Eric Wafula (Hospital Ward), now aligned with Kenya Kwanza.

Bissau and Wamalwa attended a UDA aspirants’ forum at State House, signifying a clear shift in their political allegiance. Bisau, the whip of the Western region MPs caucus, and  Wamalwa are now set to battle for the UDA gubernatorial ticket in Trans Nzoia. Their move is a blow to Wamalwa’s DAP-K party and Ford Kenya, which have lost key supporters in the county.

Wamalwa, former Ford Kenya Secretary General, dismissed his former party’s popularity, claiming it has become “a personal property of the top leadership.” He announced his intention to vie for the Secretary General seat in the ruling party, noting that he joined UDA after consultations with the President.

Observers say the ongoing political realignment targets the opposition and Natembeya’s Tawe movement, which has maintained great popularity in the county’s 400,000-vote-rich electorate. The shifts come ahead of President Ruto’s development tour of Trans Nzoia later this month. Leaders allied to the government are actively mobilising residents ahead of the visit, with figures such as former Cabinet Secretary Dr Susan Nakhumicha, Endebess MP Dr Robert Pukose and Senator Allan Chesang promising development projects.

Some residents and opinion leaders believe these realignments will hugely impact the 2027 elections. “When you see all these leaders joining the government, it tells you there is a serious game plan and vote hunt ahead of the 2027 elections,” observed Immaculate Shamalla.

Others have called for unity among leaders to ensure county development. “We are not much interested in political parties, but we want our elected leaders united so that we get development. We have been left behind because of the politics of opposition,” said Benard Onyiego.

Key projects expected during the President’s visit include the Turbo-Sikhendu-Endebess road, an affordable housing project at Maili Tatu and several modern markets.

As the gubernatorial race heats up, Natembeya has dismissed his competitors as political puppets. His 2022 closest rival, Wamalwa, will make a second attempt, alongside Bisau, who seeks the seat after two unsuccessful bids. Both have vowed to unseat Natembeya, a former provincial administrator and staunch critic of President Ruto.

Dr Nakhumicha, leveraging her tenure as a Cabinet Secretary, has also declared her candidacy, citing her role in allocating over Sh600 million to county development projects, including Matunda Health Centre and Kabuyefwe Primary School infrastructure.

Bisau emphasised development on Kiminini constituency as his key platform. “The previous and current county government leadership have not done much to lift the lives of residents. I’m ready to bring desirable economic changes in the county,” he said during a rally in Cherangany.

Prof Ben Wanjala, former County Executive Member under Governor Patrick Khaemba, has also declared his candidacy, citing his experience in governance as an asset.

Despite these challengers, Natembeya remains confident. During the commissioning of the Sh205 million St Teresa’s Mother and Baby Level 4 Hospital in Matisi, Kitale, he accused his rivals of being manipulated by external political forces. “They are not themselves. My challengers are political puppets and out to serve the interests of their masters. They are inconsequential,” he said.

Natembeya enumerated his development record, pointing to ongoing projects like the operationalization of Wamalwa Kijana Referral Hospital, the Kenyatta Stadium and his “Fukuza Njaa” initiatives, which have provided free maize seeds to over 200,000 households.

“Those with eyes have seen what I have done. My development record is clear and it is the electorate that will decide at the ballot box,” Natembeya said.

Despite efforts by the ruling administration to undermine him politically, the governor enjoys solid grassroots support. Attempts by President Ruto’s allies to attack Natembeya during UDA consultative forums have often met resistance from residents, underscoring his enduring popularity.